'Money on's better than money gone' - pro punter Johnny Dineen's must-read views

Johnny Dineen, former bookmaker and now professional punter, is the new co-host of the Racing Post's flagship Cheltenham Festival ante-post show Upping The Ante. Johnny will also be writing a weekly column for Members' Club Ultimate subscribers every Friday, the first of which is free to read as a sample below. To read Johnny every week, and all our best website and newspaper content, join Members' Club Ultimate here.

I'm over at Cheltenham this weekend on a jolly – more about what I fancy there later on – but it's at Navan on Sunday where my eye is instantly drawn to a horse who could have a big bearing in the top novice chases this season. Indeed, I would advise you to have a few quid on him for the Sporting Life Arkle right now.

Flame Bearer is a horse I've always liked. He has switched from the Pat Doyle stable to Willie Mullins since his last run and I'm convinced he is going to win a Grade 1 this season. With that in mind, he would want to be winning the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase (12.45) and I'll be backing him for that. I'm not price-sensitive. If I think something will win, it doesn't bother me how short he is. Money on is better than money gone.

There are enough decent horses in the race to make me think Flame Bearer could be around evens and that will do me just lovely. Hollow Games needs further than two miles so I couldn't have him and while Colonel Mustard is a talented horse, Flame Bearer would have far more natural ability than him.

Paul Townend will pop Flame Bearer out in a prominent position – I know that before I back him – and he should outclass this field. There is plenty of 16-1 available for the Arkle and that could look a very big price come Sunday night. He was a good horse for Doyle; he could be a very good one for Mullins.

Sticking with Navan, the Grade 2 Railway Bar Lismullen Hurdle (1.55) is a fascinating affair and I couldn't back Bob Olinger with stolen money. I'll be laying him.

I think there is something physically wrong with the horse. He has a P next to his name after being pulled up at Punchestown but he may as well have two Ps next to his name after the way he ran in the Turners at Cheltenham. He went from being two lengths down on Galopin Des Champs turning in to being 20 lengths down jumping the last. That really worries me.

Bob Olinger was always a strong finisher as a novice hurdler but he wasn't finishing out his races last season. At his peak he would give weight to all of these, yet now he is in receipt of 9lb from Flooring Porter, and I genuinely wouldn't back him were he receiving 90lb. He's just not the horse he was in my eyes. No matter how big a price you offered me, I could never back him.

It is good to see Ferny Hollow back in action in the Fortria Chase (2.30) and I'd imagine he will beat Sunday's rivals despite being off for nearly a year. On ratings, given he is getting 7lb, Andy Dufresne should give him a real scare but I'm not sure that will materialise.

Ferny Hollow: returns from a long layoff on SundayCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

My strongest fancy on the Naas card on Saturday is Santonito in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle (12.20) for all the reasons given below in the wager of the weekend section, but I would be surprised if Ashroe Diamond didn't win the opening 2m maiden hurdle (11.50). She is no bigger than 10-1 for what is now the Jack de Bromhead Mares' Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham and that's probably not a bad price.

It is hard to envisage Turners contender Three Stripe Life not winning the 2m4f beginners' chase (2.40), but it wouldn't surprise me if Gentleman De Mee was beaten in the Grade 3 Barberstown Castle Poplar Square Chase (2.05).

I don't think he is up to winning a Champion Chase and it wouldn't shock me if he failed to give 12lb to Jeremys Flame on his reappearance. Gavin Cromwell's mare is race-fit and has already won twice at the track so she could annoy odds-on backers.

Boodles winner Brazil runs against Fil Dor and Prairie Dancer in the Grade 3 Fishery Lane Hurdle (12.55) and he would be on my radar for something like the County Hurdle or the Coral Cup in March. His best form seems to come after Christmas.

Now, back to Cheltenham where I'll be spending the next two days. I've been hearing some nice whispers coming out of Ditcheat about Blueking D'Oroux ahead of the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (12.35). This is not a strong race and I couldn't have the likes of Mr Freedom or Scriptwriter on my mind, so if he's as good as they think he is he would want to be winning this.

The presence of Banbridge in the Arkle Trial (1.45) intrigues me. He would have had a better chance in the novice handicap chase over a longer distance on Friday but connections have decided to run over the minimum trip. He's on my radar for the Plate in March. For Saturday, I'd prefer Tommy's Oscar.

Banbridge: on Johnny Dineen's radar for the Plate at the Cheltenham FestivalCredit: Grossick Racing

I don't see any Ryanair contender sticking out in the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20) but I am looking forward to Luccia in the Grade 2 mares' bumper (4.05). Willie Mullins brings over Williamstowndancer but I couldn't have her for a quality race like this. I doubt she will be up to it.

One who could sneak under the radar on Saturday is Lookaway in the opening 2m4f maiden hurdle (12.27) at Uttoxeter. I like him and could see him being aimed towards the Challow Hurdle at Newbury.

Fast-forward to Sunday and I will definitely be taking on Nube Negra in the Shloer Chase (1.45). He's far too soft for me and shouldn't be able to give Edwardstone 3lb.

I'm never short of an opinion but I won't be having a bet in the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle (2.55). Any one of ten could win that and, if I am having a bet in a handicap, I would prefer a chase over a hurdle. There are far too many unknowns in a handicap hurdle.

Maybe Iberico Lord will make a winning debut for Nicky Henderson and Aidan Coleman in the Sky Bet Supreme Trial (3.30) but the form of his win in France is brutal so he won't be taking any of my money.

See you all again next week. If you will have me back.

Back now

Flame Bearer at 16-1 for the Sporting Life Arkle

Wager of the weekend

If you were to back only one horse this weekend, it should be Santonito in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle (12.20) at Naas on Saturday. I'd be disappointed if he doesn't win.

He has some rock-solid form in bumpers last season, when he chased home The Nice Guy, Embassy Gardens and Seabank Bistro, and those are three above-average performers from the Willie Mullins stable. I'm not sure he faces anything of that calibre here.

He now has the benefit of a run over hurdles at Punchestown and I thought he jumped fine behind a nice horse in Marine Nationale. That was over two miles but he is crying out for a step up in trip and he gets that here. With natural progression from his first to second run over hurdles, he should be hard to beat. I will definitely be backing him anyway.

Course complaints are codswallop

Nothing gets my goat more than a trainer saying a horse didn't handle a track. That sort of codswallop is the biggest myth in racing. There is no such thing as a horse handling or not handling a track; it is just an excuse if something goes wrong. If a horse is good enough, they will handle the track.

Look at Willie Mullins, the greatest trainer of the modern era. He brought a dual Cheltenham Gold Cup winner in Al Boum Photo to Tramore four times, and Tramore is a rollercoaster of a track. He's brought horses like Laurina, El Fabiolo and Saint Roi there as well. That tells you all you need to know.

Speaking of Tramore, I remember overhearing a conversation between a trainer and an owner in the parade ring one day. They had the odds-on favourite and the trainer said, "I'd be worried about him coming down the hill." The owner responded with, "That's bullshit, this fella would go down a flight of stairs." And, lo and behold, the horse bolted up.

Punting tales

I always bring a few fellas with me in the car when I'm going racing. These wouldn't be nine to five men now, they'd be a different breed altogether.

One Monday evening we all had a shocker at Roscommon. Now, I mean an absolute horror show. It was bucketing down with rain to add to the misery and we were waiting for the last chap to get into the car before we set off on the three-and-a-half-hour drive home.

As he hopped in, soaked to the skin, I said to him, "How did you finish?" His reply: "The same way I came into the world, Johnny; completely naked, no shirt or nothing." Well, we must have laughed for about an hour. It shortened the journey home if nothing else.

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New Upping The Ante star Johnny Dineen joins the Racing Post roster for a weekly Saturday column throughout the jumps season. He'll offer a guide to the weekend action, highlight the key horses and races to watch and share his punting wisdom. Read it every Saturday in the Racing Post or online from 4pm every Friday, exclusively for Members' Club subscribers. Sign up to Members' Club here for more top jumps season insight.