Prominent or held up? Stats reveal the kind of horses you need to be backing

The advice to an inexperienced Cheltenham punter who has engaged with all the festival build-up might be similar to that given to a young jockey on their first ride at the track: save a bit for the end.

For the majority of bettors, ante-post slips will form a lesser part of their involvement over the week. These bets are chiefly about merit: this will go off half that price for the Supreme; this does not look like a strong Gold Cup; he should not be 20-1, and so on.

At the point where final fields are known, the viewpoint is changing. Merit still matters, of course, but if you are doing Cheltenham like a devotee then that work is already done. Day-of-race betting is about situations, set against the background research that has been under way since Christmas.