Pinatubo rated 10lb clear of rivals but assessor questions Guineas credentials

The BHA's lead two-year-old handicapper Graeme Smith has questioned the Qipco 2,000 Guineas appeal of red-hot favourite Pinatubo, despite having recognised him as the best two-year-old for 25 years with a mark of 128 – the highest since Celtic Swing was awarded a mark of 130.

Smith has also raised questions regarding the suitability of Qipco 1,000 Guineas favourite Quadrilateral for the mile at Newmarket in May, reasoning that her Fillies' Mile win from Powerful Breeze was more about stamina than speed and suggesting the runner-up is likely to be much better equipped for the race.

Pinatubo, a general 11-10 chance for the Guineas, went unbeaten through a demanding six-race campaign that culminated in a two-length defeat of Arizona in the Dewhurst Stakes, and Smith has huge admiration for the two-year-old achievements of Charlie Appleby's colt.

However, he has reservations concerning whether he will make sufficient improvement between two and three to maintain that dominance, although he admits that normal improvement might not be needed in the short term, as Pinatubo's mark – achieved in his stunning nine-length defeat of Armory in the Vincent O'Brien National Stakes at the Curragh rather than the Dewhurst – put him an unprecedented 10lb clear of the pack, which is headed by Earthlight and Kameko.

Smith said: "Pinatubo's performance in the National Stakes was breathtaking – the kind you rarely see in top company. It was absolutely fantastic and one of the great two-year-old performances – the best by any two-year-old in the last 25 years."

Smith has no doubt that Pinatubo will stay a mile, and he particularly admires "his ability to change gear off a really strong pace". However, Pinatubo is not the biggest and Smith does not see where the necessary physical improvement will come from in order to maintain his superiority.

He pointed out: "In terms of weight for age, to be the same horse in the Guineas as he was in the Dewhurst he has to mature by 10lb, and you've got to ask yourself whether you can really see that happening."

Sheikh Mohammed with Pinatubo after the colt's Dewhurst victoryCredit: Edward Whitaker

None of that is currently a concern to Appleby, who is immensely proud of the accolades that Pinatubo has attracted and reports the colt is wintering well and firmly on course to reappear in the Guineas without a prep run.

Appleby, who can see Pinatubo stepping up to a mile and a quarter in the second half of the season but does not currently view him as a likely Derby contender, said: "I think the 128 is justifiable, and we are all very proud of it, especially Sheikh Mohammed, who bred him and was very much involved in picking him out on the farm.

"The National Stakes was a proper 'wow' performance and I think some people expected too much of him in the Dewhurst. We were never going to see that sort of performance again on that ground, and it's full credit to the horse he did what he did on his sixth run of the season on very soft ground. I was very pleased with it, and the more I've watched it the happier I've been."

He added: "Pinatubo has wintered here in the UK and he's wintered well. He hasn't changed at all in his characteristics. He sleeps, eats, exercises and goes back to sleep again, and that's part of the reasoning behind him not going out to Dubai. He's so relaxed here we didn't want to change the regime. Touch wood everything is going well.

"As I've said before he's one of those horses who doesn't do anything in the morning, but thankfully he's a very exciting horse in the afternoon – there's no doubt about that. He'll go straight to the Guineas without a prep."

Quadrilateral (left) reels in Powerful Breeze (second left) in the Fillies' Mile at NewmarketCredit: Edward Whitaker

Quadrilateral is rated 1lb behind the highest-rated two-year-old filly Millisle, whose mark of 115 following her Cheveley Park victory is among the lowest for a champion filly since 1988 in a list headed by Lyric Fantasy and Queen's Logic on 122.

A relatively modest rating will not necessarily stop Quadrilateral winning the Guineas, since the classifications strongly suggest that with the exception of Pinatubo the top juveniles of both sexes in 2019 were not a great bunch.

Smith's reservation about the Roger Charlton-trained filly regards her perceived lack of speed. He said: "There's nothing wrong with the Fillies' Mile form, but this was a race that tested stamina rather than speed and it was a really slowing finish.

"For much of the last two furlongs Powerful Breeze was going to win and I thought she absolutely killed Quadrilateral for a turn of foot. It was only when Quadrilateral hit the rising ground that she really found top gear and came through to win. Handicappers can't bet of course, but I think the Guineas market is really interesting and I'm really looking forward to seeing how these two fare."

Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager to Quadrilateral's owner Khalid Abdullah, had good news of the filly but said the team are undecided about whether she should have a prep run.

He said: "All is good with Quadrilateral. She has wintered well and Roger is pleased with her. If everyone is happy the 1,000 Guineas is still the aim. I think we'll mull over whether to go for a trial but I wouldn't say it's a certainty by any means."

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