I'm taking on Baaeed - and here's why this horse can give him a proper fight

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There is just a few days to go until the last of the big British summer festivals this year, so I thought it was worth looking ahead to one of the big-race favourites at York in Baaeed, not least because I'm opposing him.

I know from my experience on social media that there are people who think every short-priced favourite will win – and they never shy away from telling you how stupid you are if you disagree, albeit most wait until after the event!

But if you're one of those, bear in mind that if there weren't contrarians around like myself you wouldn't get the prices you do get about the jollies.

Punters need other punters to take a different view, so if he wins, please just say thanks and move on.

Judging by the comments you'll see on Twitter, to many it is sacrilege to poo-poo the achievements of the unbeaten Baaeed, who is 9-9 and never looks like getting beaten.

Baaeed extended his unbeaten sequence to nine in the Sussex Stakes last timeCredit: Edward Whitaker

There are those who put him up there with Frankel even though his form is the best part of a stone below the legendary 2012 winner of this race and nine other Group 1s.

Baaeed may well win and he does deserve to be favourite, but I'll be backing Mishriff – and if he turns up in the same form as when he won this race by six lengths last season the market leader will have a proper fight on his hands.

We all know that the mile division is weak, and Mishriff at his best is in a different league to the horses Baaeed has so far beaten.

He was the joint-top rated turf horse in Europe after winning this last season, and there are reasons for thinking he is in similar form this time around.

With a clear run Mishriff would surely have won the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown two starts ago, but that near miss unfortunately saw David Egan's association with him come to an end and James Doyle did not look ready for his usual slow start at Ascot in the King George.

Having missed the break by many lengths, Mishriff actually ran faster than the pacemakers in the early stages in a bid to catch up, so he did really well to finish third, especially over a trip he doesn't quite get on a stiff track.

Mishriff: last year's Juddmonte International winnerCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

The general belief with Baaeed is that we haven't seen what he is really capable of as he saves something for himself and 'only does just enough', but I rarely buy that sort of nonsense. It's opinion rather than fact, and we'll only know it is true for sure if a horse 'idles' – another word loved by those who think horses are better than they are – and then pulls out more when challenged again.

Baaeed won races last season by four lengths, six and a half, and seven and a half, so it's only a recent thing, and if you really think he could have found another three lengths on Palace Pier last year if something had gone that far ahead you want your head tested.

Baaeed is also unproven at the trip, and while everyone expects him to improve for it, that again is opinion rather than fact.

In short, what we'll have next Wednesday is an unbeaten short-priced favourite going up in trip against the best rival he has ever run against on a course where that rival has shown his best ever form.

Altior v Cyrname anyone?

Read these next:

Brilliant Baaeed heads eight in the Juddmonte International at the Ebor festival

'When two-year-olds have taken Nunthorpe chance they're usually in the shake-up'

Nunthorpe and Ebor insight with Flotus and John Leeper warming up for York tests (Members' Club)

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