'I can't see him being beaten' - Pricewise guru Tom Segal answers your questions

This piece was first published on February 17 exclusively for our Members' Club subscribers and has now been made available to read for free.

Sign up to the Racing Post's Members' Club now to take advantage of more top tipping advice from Tom Segal and our other top tipsters ahead of the Cheltenham Festival. New customers can enter the code TRYME to get 50 per cent off their first month.

Can you give us your banker of the meeting and your lay of the meeting?Daniel Nogher

At this stage I can't see Edwardstone being beaten in the Arkle but I wouldn't want to back Bob Olinger at a very short price in the Turners where L'Homme Presse has to be a huge danger.

How many British winners do you foresee at Cheltenham this year? I'm going for eight.Malcolm Clark
I would go under eight, Malcolm, but I do think the home team has a good chance of winning the first three. If Constitution Hill and Edwardstone get beaten it will be a struggle to get to five.

When there are few form lines between the likes of Sir Gerhard, Constitution Hill, Jonbon and Dysart Dynamo, apart from times, what approach do you use to decide on a bet?Gary Stewart
I like times and run style, and both of those would point me to Sir Gerhard at this stage.

Does Kilcruit have a chance in the Supreme?Steve Richardson
It's a very hard race but the time of his Punchestown win was really good and he hit the line strongly so I do think he's made the big four a big five.

Kilcruit: a leading contender for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle on the opening dayCredit: Caroline Norris (racingpost.com/photos)

What chance do you give Appreciate It, having not raced for a year?Michael Pearson
A decent one if the Honeysuckle we saw at the Dublin Racing Festival turns up as I wasn't overly impressed with her there. I don't see his absence being a huge problem given the yard he's from and Paul Townend seems pretty sweet on him. Honeysuckle is obviously a superstar but if anyone can beat her next month it will be Appreciate It.

I'm really keen on seeing Pats Fancy in the National Hunt Chase as I think he will love the trip. What are your thoughts?Steve Reeves
I agree he'll love the trip, the further the better, and I can see where you're coming from. The problem with the National Hunt Chase is that it's an extremely classy race these days. Galvin won it last year and I don't think Pat's Fancy is in that class. Welsh National next season?

Which horses are on your radar for any of the handicaps?Andy Duffin
If Shan Blue turns up in the Ultima or Plate off a mark of 148 I would be keen on him. He was going to beat Fusil Raffles by a distance in the Charlie Hall and would be getting weight off him at Cheltenham. Alaphilippe looks to have been laid out for the Pertemps and Brazil could be one for the Boodles. However, I reserve the right to change my mind, Andy!

Can you give us an ante-post Lucky 15?Craig Hemmings
I'll try, Craig. Edwardstone in the Arkle, L'Homme Presse in the Turners, Flooring Porter in the Stayers' and Brazil in the Boodles.

Do you think Journey With Me could be a good thing – and if so in which race?John Jenkins
I'm sure he'll run in the Ballymore but it's hard to know what to make of him as his recent Naas win came in a silly race. His Leopardstown form couldn't have worked out much better, though, and I expect him to go very close.

Can you explain the price of Stage Star for the Ballymore? He's a fast-improving horse and a very solid option in a volatile market, but I've seen little to no love for him.Dave Kennedy
People might be remembering Bravemansgame last season and they assume Stage Star could end up being very good over fences but a class below the best Irish novice hurdlers. That might not be the case.

Is Nube Negra worth a punt in the Champion Chase?William Richard Groves
I like your thinking. I'm not sure he can beat Shishkin but he could easily pick up some scraps late on.

Do you think Tiger Roll will win again and create even more history?Philip Lewis
How can you rule out a horse who has won as many top-class races as Tiger Roll? Of course he can win again, although I didn't think there was as much promise in his last run at Navan as many suggest.

Can you see anything getting within a furlong of Facile Vega in the bumper?Darren Camplejohn
Yes I can. Kilcruit and Appreciate It won the same Leopardstown bumper just as easily as Facile Vega and got beaten at Cheltenham.

I really fancy Tullybeg in the Pertemps. Who do you like in the race?Dean Williams
I could never put you off a Gordon Elliott handicapper, Dean. I have backed Alaphilippe but will no doubt add another couple nearer the time.

Paisley Park: soft ground key to his chances of winning the Stayers' Hurdle againCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

The roof will come off if Paisley Park wins. Do you think he has a good chance?Stephen Ross
On soft ground he definitely comes into it but on a decent surface picking up Flooring Porter and Klassical Dream will be a different kettle of fish.

How much do you focus on trainer trends at Cheltenham? Should we back every Gordon Elliott horse in a handicap, for instance?Matt Pollard
When you train 300 good horses as Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins do, finding a well-handicapped one for a handicap is not exactly rocket science. So, while I wouldn't call it a trainer trend, I would be foolish not to look at the runners from those stables first.

What kind of horse do you look for in the handicaps and do you have an example?Paul Ebrey
Smooth travellers, ones who can jump in their comfort zone and novices in handicap chases as they always have a chance of being a lot better than their handicap marks. The Plate is a seriously good race for novices and Imperial Alcazar seems an obvious contender, while Ciel De Neige can go well in the Grand Annual.

How big an advantage is course-and-distance form at the Cheltenham Festival?Alan Randell Jones
Hardly any of the Irish novices come to Cheltenham having run there and it doesn't seem to matter one jot. However, there are some horses who don't like the track so having some form at Cheltenham can't be a negative.

Do you have any outsiders you fancy at this year's festival?Mark Hughes
Royale Pagaille is well overpriced at 33-1 in the Gold Cup. If there is some give in the ground he has a much better chance than that. And Doctor Parnassus has been underestimated in the Triumph.

What's the best race for Pied Piper – Triumph or Supreme?Paul Gunning
Surely the Triumph, Paul. The Supreme looks red-hot and the Triumph doesn't.

I don't think this year's Gold Cup looks a great race and I like Fiddlerontheroof each-way. What's your opinion?David Goodall
I think it's well up to scratch, David, probably better than last year. However, with the Tizzard team going so well I wouldn't put you off Fiddlerontheroof at a big price.

No-one seems to be talking up Al Boum Photo regaining his Gold Cup crown. What do you make of him?Stuart Graham
He's the forgotten horse but Kauto Star couldn't win as a ten-year-old and this year's race might be better than last year's. I struggle to see him regaining his crown but have no doubt he'll run well again.

Moving away from the more obvious races, the Mares' Chase interests me and Mount Ida is my idea of the winner. What are your thoughts?Glenn Smith
Now she has her jumping sorted out she has to have a massive chance.

Do you think Minella Cocooner is a big player in the Albert Bartlett and would you back him at the prices?Mark Anthony Smith
I don't like horses who wear hoods in staying races. Trainers use hoods to settle horses down and if Minella Cocooner runs with the choke out he won't win the Albert Bartlett.

Galopin Des Champs is all the rage, so what do you feel about Langer Dan?Kevin Johnson
It appears he's being trained solely for another crack at the Martin Pipe after finishing second to Galopin Des Champs last year. From only a 5lb higher mark he's going to be the one to beat. The Skelton team have a very good record when laying one out for a Cheltenham handicap hurdle.

Read more on this year's Cheltenham Festival:

Big-race tips: why this horse can win at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival

The key Irish formlines you need to follow at this year's Cheltenham Festival

Who is favourite for each of the 28 Cheltenham Festival races?

Over 50% off Racing Post Members' Club!Members' Club is the only subscription racing fans and punters need in order to stay informed and make smarter betting decisions. Features include early access to the Racing Post digital newspaper, exclusive news and interviews, premium tips and form study tools to assist with betting. Select 'Get Ultimate Monthly' and enter code TRYME to get your first month for just £14.99* – that's better than half price!

Subscribe now

If you decide that Members' Club is not for you, then you can cancel at anytime by contacting us.

*Members' Club Ultimate Monthly first month will be charged at £14.99, renews at full price thereafter