Cloth Cap: should I back the favourite for the 2021 Grand National?

Cloth Cap could go off one of the shortest-priced favourites in Grand National history, with his price in the lead-up to Aintree as short as 4-1. He is now available at 11-2 with bookmakers for the big race.

Last week his trainer Jonjo O'Neill described the price as "crackers" even if he fancies his chances, but is Cloth Cap worth a bet in the big one?

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Form

The biggest reason why Cloth Cap is so short in the betting for the 2021 Grand National is what he's done this season.

The nine-year-old won Newbury's prestigious Ladbrokes Trophy in November impressively before beating a field of quality horses at Kelso last month.

Cloth Cap: a winner at Kelso last timeCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

He recorded a career-best performance last time and is undoubtedly the one horse coming into the race at the top of his game.

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Weight

The Grand National weights are always revealed in February and Cloth Cap was assigned a weight of 10st 5lb, due to his official rating of 148.

However, Cloth Cap ran and won at Kelso in March so impressively that the handicapper now rates him 162, which means he would carry a stone more if he were to run off this rating. Given he will still race off 10st 5lb, from a ratings perspective no horse appeals more than Cloth Cap.

In the last 30 years, six horses have carried weights between 10st 4lb and 10st 6lb. The last winner off exactly 10st 5lb was Earth Summit in 1998, who was a favourite as well.

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Course

Cloth Cap has never run on the Grand National course, nor has he even been to Aintree, so it remains a mystery as to whether he will like the unique 30-fence test of the Grand National.

This is the most obvious negative regarding his chances, but favourite backers should keep in mind that experience over the fences is not as crucial as it used to be.

For welfare reasons, the stiff National fences have been changed in the last few seasons and are considerably easier to jump. The stats would support this with Many Clouds (2015), Rule The World (2016) and Tiger Roll (2018) all winning the race on their first try over the fences.

Distance

On paper, staying the stamina-sapping Grand National distance should not be a concern for Cloth Cap. He has never raced over four and a quarter miles but he has placed form on his CV over four miles – that coming when third in the 2019 Scottish National.

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Jockey and trainer

His jockey Tom Scudamore picked up the winning ride on Cloth Cap in November as he could get down to the 10st required. Since then the partnership has flourished, as they made it two from two when teaming up at Kelso.

Cloth Cap: pictured with Tom Scudamore after his Ladbrokes Trophy success in NovemberCredit: Edward Whitaker

Scudamore has ridden in the National 18 times – more than any jockey in this year's race – although his best finish is no better than sixth.

His trainer Jonjo O'Neill has even more experience of the world's most famous steeplechase, riding in it eight times and sending out 32 runners as a trainer, including one winner with 2010 hero Don't Push It.

2021 Grand National: the runners, the odds, the verdict

Verdict

If you are searching for the most likely winner of the 2021 Grand National, then look no further than Cloth Cap. He is in red hot form, has a significant weight advantage, and runs for a jockey and trainer who know the race well.

Of course, the National is the race famed for shocks and surprises and many a red-hot favourite has fallen at the first. So, while Cloth Cap may have everything in his favour, there are 39 other runners and 30 fences that could ruin everything.

In short, he is unquestionably the best bet in the race, but it could be far more fun to halve your intended stake and pick a second choice – just in case.

If you want more on the 2021 Grand National . . .

'I picked him at 33-1 and now the gamble is on' – celebrity Grand National picks

Grand National strategies: how to find the winner of the 40-runner epic

Grand National steamers: five horses who could shorten in the build-up

2021 Grand National: confirmed runners and riders for Saturday's big race

Free Grand National tips: five horses to back in Saturday's big race at Aintree

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