Classic Clues: key angles to look for at Chester and Lingfield - plus how are the Oaks and Derby markets shaping up?
The 2023 Flat season is under way with the first British Classics going the way of Chaldean and Mawj at last weekend's Guineas meeting at Newmarket.
The Betfred Derby and Oaks will be run at Epsom in just over three weeks and key trials will take place this week which should give some vital insight into the upcoming Group 1 contests.
Here, we look at how things are progressing for the year's leading three-year-olds, interesting angles to look for over the next few days and how the ante-post markets are shaping up.
How have the Derby and Oaks pictures changed recently?
It was all change last weekend in the Derby market after Auguste Rodin disappointed in the 2,000 Guineas. He was pushed out by William Hill 5-1 (from 7-4) on Saturday after finishing 12th of 14 at Newmarket.
Moving in the opposite direction in the betting was the Charlie Appleby-trained Military Order, who was shortened into 6-1 (from 10) on Monday morning ahead of a possible tilt at Lingfield's Derby Trial on Saturday.
Yet the biggest mover in the Derby market was Sprewell, who impressed with a three-length win in Sunday's Leopardstown Derby Trial and was slashed to 16-1 (from 50-1) by Paddy Power.
Bookmakers took a favourable view of the Charlie Johnston-trained Dubai Mile following his fifth-placed finish in the 2,000 Guineas, in which he stayed on well to the line despite getting outpaced into the Dip. He was shortened by bet365 to 16-1 (from 33) following the race.
The Oaks was also subject to several market moves spearheaded by Running Lion, the daughter of Roaring Lion who eased to victory by four and a half lengths in the Pretty Polly Stakes. John and Thady Gosden have yet to determine whether the filly will head to Epsom or France for the Prix de Diane but she was shortened by BetVictor into 6-1 (from 33).
It has been 36 years since Sir Michael Stoute's last Oaks winner - Unite in 1987 - but bookmakers were clearly impressed by Newmarket maiden winner Infinite Cosmos, who was cut to 6-1 (from 10) following her success on Friday.
Jack Channon's stable has started the season in top form and he would have been chuffed to see Caernarfon run so well in the 1,000 Guineas to finish a staying-on fourth. She was shortened by bet365 to 25-1 (from 40) following the race.
The Flat season steps up a gear after the Guineas weekend and this week Chester hosts its annual May meeting. There will be Classic clues aplenty on the Roodee with the Cheshire Oaks, Chester Vase and Dee Stakes all used as trials for the Oaks and Derby next month. Famously, Enable won the Cheshire Oaks in 2017 for John Gosden before following up at Epsom.
What Derby and Oaks clues can we expect this week?
Weatherbys Digital Solutions Cheshire Oaks (2.40 Chester, Wednesday)
This year's Cheshire Oaks favourite is the Aidan O'Brien-trained Savethelastdance. O'Brien has won four of the last seven runnings of this race yet none of those winners have gone onto Epsom glory. The best result was Wonder of Wonders, who won the Cheshire Oaks in 2011 before finishing second to Dancing Rain a month later.
Savethelastdance was cut to a general 6-1 favourite for Classic glory following her maiden success at Leopardstown when beating stablemate Boogie Woogie by two and a quarter lengths. Success here will see her shorten further.
Boodles Chester Vase Stakes (3.15 Chester, Thursday)
O'Brien's strike-rate in the Cheshire Oaks may seem strong but it pales in comparison to his impressive record in the Chester Vase. He's won in seven of the last nine years but saddles just the one runner this season in the form of Adelaide River. A current 50-1 chance for Derby glory, the son of Australia has around six lengths to find here if he's to reverse form with current favourite Arrest from their run at Saint-Cloud last season.
Punters and bookies alike will be eager to see the Juddmonte-owned Arrest in action. Bookmakers aren't sure what to make of the son of Frankel for the Derby as he's priced as big as 25-1 by some while others have him as low as 14-1. The form of his runner-up finish last time out was given a boost on Saturday by Dubai Mile, who finished a gallant fifth in the 2,000 Guineas.
Boodles Dee Stakes (2.40 Chester, Thursday)
O'Brien's dominance at Chester could continue in the Listed Dee Stakes on Thursday, having won six of the last nine runnings. He has Bertinelli, Londoner and San Antonio all as potential runners this year but his son Donnacha could perhaps saddle the most interesting runner in the field.
Alder is a current 33-1 for the Derby and comes to Chester following a victory at Cork where he beat the reopposing Bertinelli. Jockey Gavin Ryan reported the son of Australia hung right that day and such antics would be a big concern on this tight turning left-handed track.
Lingfield Oaks and Derby trials (Saturday)
More Classic clues will be on show this weekend at Lingfield, which hosts its annual Oaks and Derby trials. Military Order, who is joint-favourite for the Derby, is the highlight entry and Charlie Appleby has reported him to be in fine order on the gallops.
The Derby trial has proved a good test for Epsom, most recently with Adayar finishing second in 2021 before going onto Classic glory and Anthony Van Dyck completing the double in 2019.
How the markets look
Betfred: 6 Auguste Rodin, Military Order, 10 Flying Honours, 14 Canberra Legend, 16 Arrest, Dubai Mile, Royal Scotsman, Silver Knott, Slipofthepen, Sprewell, 20 bar
Betfred Oaks (Epsom, June 2)
Betfred: 5 Savethelastdance, 6 Infinite Cosmos, Running Lion, 8 Never Ending Story, 12 Bluestocking, 16 Electric Eyes, Mawj, Azazat, 20 bar
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Confirmed runners and riders for the Chester Vase and Cheshire Oaks
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