Who will win the 2024 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot based on previous trends?

Saturday's King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot (3.40) is a heavyweight clash which looks wide open. Here, Weekender trends doyen Alistair Jones takes an in-depth look at the Group 1 and identifies its potential winner . . .

The age factor

This is a dilemma. For years this race was dominated by young horses and rarely did those older than four get a look in.

It was Poet’s Word in 2018 who broke the dominance of three- and four-year-olds when becoming the first older horse to triumph since Daylami in 1999. No fewer than 45 horses aged five and upwards came up short in between, with some big names among them.

These included the much-fancied Highland Reel, Jack Hobbs, Cirrus Des Aigles, St Nicholas Abbey, Youmzain, Doyen, Falbrav, Nayef and Fantastic Light.

Enable was the first successful six-year-old since Swain in 1998, a feat equalled 12 months ago by Hukum. Last year’s winner was the fifth in six years to be older than four. Therefore, whereas six-year-olds Dubai Honour and Rebel’s Romance would have been instantly opposed a few years ago, it’s clear that age is no longer a barrier to success.

One of the reasons why older horses have come to the fore is that this is no longer a priority for the Classic crop. Three-year-olds were one ahead of their elders prior to Doyen winning in 2004, yet now they trail by 31 to 42.

That said, a quality three-year-old still commands respect and Sunway did go close to winning an Irish Derby. A Classic connection is essential for a youngster to be taken seriously.

Auguste Rodin: won the Prince Of Wales's Stakes at Royal AscotCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Rodin hard to knock

Auguste Rodin is a worthy favourite.

Although his recent top-level honours at Royal Ascot came over a shorter trip, he is a three-time Group 1 winner over 1m4f and one of those wins came in last year’s Derby.

He would become only the third winner of the Epsom Classic to win this as a four-year-old, emulating Royal Palace and Teenoso.

Aidan O’Brien’s colt boasts an adjusted Racing Post Rating of 131 and nine of the last ten winners had a figure of at least 128.

Using this figure as a cut-off point reduces the shortlist to Auguste Rodin, Luxembourg, Rebel’s Romance and Bluestocking.

Girl Power

Eleven fillies or mares have competed in the last decade with finishing positions of 14137101367.

However, the fact that Danedream and Enable are the only female winners older than three since Time Charter in 1983 puts the task facing Bluestocking into perspective.

Some great fillies have been beaten in the King George – including the mighty Oh So Sharp – and it takes a proper top-notcher to beat the boys.

Furthermore, Bluestocking would become the first winner since Duke Of Marmalade in 2008 to lack winning form over 1m4f. This also counts against Sunway.

Rossa Ryan and Bluestocking get the better of Emily Upjohn

Bluestocking: Pretty Polly winner runs against the boys on SaturdayCredit: Patrick McCann

Verdict

Auguste Rodin would become only the third Derby hero to win this race a year on and, given that he is prone to running the odd shocker, he looks a skinny price.

Older horses are on a roll and the five-year-old Luxembourg is overpriced due to Ryan Moore’s likely preference for his stablemate. If for some reason he swerves Ascot then jump ship to Rebel’s Romance.