Who will win the 2023 King George based on previous trends?

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (3.40) takes place at Ascot on Saturday and the upcoming running of the world-famous Group 1 looks one of the races of the decade. With that in mind, we have delved through previous King Georges and identified key pointers to help you find the winner . . .

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Age

Adayar became the first three-year-old colt to win the King George since Nathaniel (2011) when victorious at Ascot two years ago, and he was the first horse to supplement a Derby win since Galileo in 2001.

Auguste Rodin will bid to join this club on Saturday and comes into the race on the back of an odds-on victory in the Irish Derby at the Curragh.

Four of the last five King George winners were aged five or older, but the previous 18 runnings (2000–2017) went to a three-year-old or a four-year-old. The two six-year-old winners of the King George (Swain in 1998 and Enable in 2020) had won the race the year before, a statistic that bodes well for Pyledriver.

Form

Postponed gained a breakthrough Group 1 success when landing the 2015 King George, but the previous nine winners in the past ten years had already won at the top level.

The last ten winners prepped for the race with a top-three finish on their previous start, with six of those coming into the race on the back of a win.

Distance

The previous ten King George winners had been successful over the 1m4f trip, with eight having already won a Group 1 over this distance.

Luxembourg has yet to win over 1m4f, having finished seventh in the Arc on his only start over this distance.

Draw

A middle-to-high draw has been favoured in recent runnings of the King George, with eight of the previous ten winners drawn in stalls three to eight.

The lowest two stalls have failed to provide a winner in the last decade, with runners from stall one producing form figures of 434456054 (no representative in 2020) during that period.

Rating

Eight of the last ten King George winners held an official rating of 119 or higher at the time of their victories, with the average winning official rating being 121.

Aidan O’Brien’s Adelaide River (116) would be the lowest-rated King George winner since Taghrooda (2014).

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Verdict

Derby runner-up King Of Steel has yet to win at the top level and the six-year-old Hukum is bidding to become the first of that age to land the race for the first time, with Swain and Enable supplementing their victories 12 months previously.

Three-year-old colts do not have an overly strong record – Derby winners even less so – which would be a negative for Auguste Rodin, while stablemates Luxembourg and Adelaide River are yet to win over the trip.

The shortlist is narrowed down to Emily Upjohn, Desert Crown and Pyledriver.

All three horses fare well on the trends, but the narrow vote goes to last year’s winner, who prepped for this race with a victory, a trend of six of the last ten winners.