Who will win the 2023 Dewhurst at Newmarket based on previous trends?

Chaldean, Native Trail, Too Darn Hot, Churchill and Frankel feature on the Dewhurst honour roll since 2010 and another fascinating running of the Group 1 takes place at Newmarket (2.00) on Saturday. We've looked over some of the key factors to see who may win the big race . . .

Ratings

Nine of the last ten winners were rated within 4lb of the top-rated horse on Racing Post Ratings in the field, while the same number had an adjusted RPR of at least 125.

Only two potential runners have an RPR above 125 and they are trained by Aidan O'Brien. Odds-on favourite City Of Troy heads the entries on RPRs with a figure of 129, while stablemate Henry Longfellow has a RPR of 127. The latter is a doubtful runner with City Of Troy set to take his chance.

Distance

Form over this 7f trip has been key. Eight of the last ten winners had previously been successful over this distance and five Dewhurst winners had already won a Group 1 over 7f, most recently Native Trail in 2021.

Native Trail won the National Stakes at the Curragh before his Dewhurst success and that race went to Henry Longfellow last month. He is the only top-level winner entered.

The three likely leading contenders – City Of Troy, Iberian and Alyanaabi – have won over this distance. Array, a 16-1 shot, has raced solely over 6f.

Class

Eight of the winners since 2013 had been successful at Group level, while the betting has proved a fair indicator for this Group 1 with seven horses justifying outright or joint favouritism in that period.

City Of Troy will be a popular favourite on Saturday and he is one of nine Group-race winners among the 12 entries. That group includes 66-1 outsider Haatem, who beat 7-2 second favourite Iberian in the Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood in August. Eben Shaddad, Johannes Brahms and Unquestionable are yet to win a Group race although all three have been placed in such company.

Form

Two winners in the last ten years arrived on the back of victory in the Champagne Stakes, including last year's scorer Chaldean.

Iberian landed the Group 2 at Doncaster on his last start and is Britain's best chance according to the market.

Only two winners in the past decade were beaten on their previous start. River Tiber is the shortest-priced entry at 25-1 to have failed to win last time out, having finished third in the Middle Park over 6f at this track two weeks ago.

Verdict

Henry Longfellow fits many of the key trends but his participation appears to be unlikely with City Of Troy a leading fancy for the race. The odds-on favourite gets the vote given he comes out on top on ratings, has won over the distance and has yet been given the chance to showcase his ability at the top level. He could prove a class apart.