Who will win the 2023 Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock based on previous trends?

The Betfair Sprint Cup (3.35) headlines Saturday's action from Haydock, with Shaquille bidding to become the first horse to win the Commonwealth Cup, July Cup and Sprint Cup. We have looked back through the past ten Sprint Cups to find out whether he has what it takes . . .

Age

Age would appear to be of little significance when it comes to picking the winner of the Sprint Cup. Five of the last ten winners have been three-year-olds and the other five have been aged four, five or six.

This year's favourite Shaquille is a three-year-old and there have been three winners of that age in the past decade who have similarly topped the market – Quiet Reflection (7-2 favourite in 2016), Harry Angel (2-1 favourite in 2017) and Hello Youmzain (9-2 co-favourite in 2019).

Trainer

Kevin Ryan is the most successful trainer in recent Sprint Cup history as he saddled Emaraaty Ana to win in 2021, two years on from Hello Youmzain's success. He has no entries in this year's race, however.

Karl Burke: has Indication Call entered in the Brocklesby

Karl Burke: has two Sprint Cup contendersCredit: Edward Whitaker

Quiet Reflection's trainer Karl Burke has two entries, with Spycatcher an intriguing contender at a general 10-1 on the back of a close second in the Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville and Swingalong, a last-time-out Group 3 winner at York, priced at 28-1 with William Hill.

Form

Twilight Son is the only recent winner who has lined up at Haydock without having run in a Group race on his previous start. Only one of the other nine winners was unplaced in their Group-race preparation – G Force in 2014, who finished sixth in the Nunthorpe.

The Maurice de Gheest and the July Cup are all common ports of call for Sprint Cup winners. Shaquille will attempt to emulate Harry Angel and land the July Cup-Sprint Cup double, while Spycatcher is following the route of last year's winner Minzaal, who was also second in the Maurice de Gheest before scoring at Haydock.

Distance

Gordon Lord Byron and Dream Of Dreams are the only two recent winners who have run over seven furlongs or further in their race before the Sprint Cup. Underfoot conditions could have influenced these results, with the going described as good to soft in 2013 and soft in 2020.

The majority of recent winners ran over six or six and a half furlongs before heading to Haydock, with the exceptions being Emaraaty Ana and G Force, the pair who contested the Nunthorpe. The going was good to firm and good for those runnings.

Rating

The average official winning rating coming into the Sprint Cup in the last ten years is 114. Dream Of Dreams was the highest-rated when he won the race with a mark of 120 in 2020, while Twilight Son won the race in 2015 with a rating of 104.

Shaquille looks to hold an edge on ratings, with a mark of 120 following wins in the Commonwealth Cup and July Cup. His nearest pursuer on official ratings is the 119-rated Kinross, who seems unlikely to run.

Verdict

By Stuart Redding

Shaquille has been the star of the sprinters this summer and should record another victory here. A tendency to start slowly hasn't held him back and he easily added the July Cup to his CV when taking on older rivals for the first time at Newmarket last time. Saint Lawrence is the most appealing each-way alternative, ahead of the supplemented Mill Stream.