UK general election 2024: the key seats to follow and how any changes might affect racing

The final YouGov MRP poll, which canvassed more than 40,000 people on their voting intentions and was published on Wednesday evening, has forecast an emphatic Labour victory with a majority of up to 282 seats in Thursday's general election. The political landscape will dramatically change overnight with ramifications for the racing and betting industries. Below are some of the key seats to follow . . .

Barnsley South (replaced Barnsley East)

Incumbent Stephanie Peacock (Labour)
Latest polling Labour hold (52% vote share-32% Reform)
Latest odds bet365: Labour 1-7, Reform 9-2, 33 bar 

Shadow sports minister before the election was called and likely to retain that position in a Keir Starmer cabinet after comfortably retaining her seat. She said during a debate in October that "the future of racing must be protected for generations to come" and was also among a number of Labour MPs who visited Doncaster last year as guests of Arena Racing Company. More recently, she spoke at the Betting and Gaming Council annual meeting in February and supported the BGC's Grand National charity bet campaign.

Result expected: 1.30am

Bristol Central (replaced Bristol West)

Incumbent Thangam Debbonaire (Labour)
Latest polling Green gain (50%-34%)
Latest odds bet365: 3-10 Green, 5-2 Labour, 40 bar 

Former shadow culture secretary who is facing a major challenge to return to Westminster with the Greens forecast to take the seat. As the culture secretary presumptive, Debbonaire would have ultimate oversight over gambling and sport policy unless the new government overhauled departmental responsibilities. Debbonaire's few public comments on gambling have included supporting stake restrictions on fixed odds betting terminals and online slots, and quizzing the government on the growth of the black market. In 2015, she signed an early day motion calling on the whip to be banned for encouragement in racing.

Result expected: 3:15 am

Mid Norfolk

Incumbent George Freeman (Conservative)
Latest polling Conservative hold (37%-33% Labour)
Latest odds bet365: 8-15 Conservatives, 11-8 Labour, 22 bar 

One of a number of Conservative MPs to speak at February's Westminster Hall debate on affordability checks. His brother Edward trains in California, while he is also the son of former jockey Arthur Freeman, who won the 1958 Grand National by 30 lengths aboard Mr What, the highlight of a riding career that also included victories at the Cheltenham Festival. He has held his seat since 2010 and looks set for another spell as MP despite strong Labour opposition.  

Result expected: 3.30am

George Freeman: forecast to hold his Mid Norfolk seatCredit: Richard Townshend

Richmond and Northallerton (formerly Richmond)

Incumbent Rishi Sunak (Conservative)
Latest polling Conservative hold (39%-28% Labour)
Latest odds bet365: 4-11 Conservatives, 2 Labour, 25 bar 

Could Sunak become the first ever sitting prime minister to lose their seat at a general election? While he is highly unlikely to be leading a Conservative government, the polls suggest he should hold his constituency. It includes Catterick racecourse and the training hub of Middleham, and Sunak has engaged with the racing community in the area. As chancellor, he has watched horses exercising on Middleham's High Moor, opened Catterick's £2 million Dales Stand and more recently while prime minister, wrote a letter to the racecourse promising affordability checks would be frictionless.

Result expected: 4am

West Suffolk

Incumbent Matt Hancock (Independent)
Latest polling Conservative hold (33%-29% Labour)
Latest odds bet365: 4-9 Labour, 13-8 Conservatives, 20 bar 

Elected as a Conservative, Matt Hancock was a vocal advocate for the sport, particularly on the subject of affordability checks, but stood down before this election. The constituency, which includes Newmarket, the Rowley Mile racecourse and countless training operations, has long been a Conservative stronghold but while the YouGov's MRP projection suggests its candidate Nick Timothy may have the advantage, the betting suggests he might not.

Result expected: 4am

Ely and East Cambridgeshire (replaced South East Cambridgeshire)

Incumbent Lucy Frazer (Conservative)
Latest polling Liberal Democrats gain (40%-29%)
Latest odds bet365: 1-2 Lib Dems, 6-4 Conservatives, 20 bar 

As culture secretary, Lucy Frazer had oversight in key areas including gambling and levy reform. On her website, Frazer proudly describes the rural constituency as one of the country's most important for horseracing. The area is home to several major breeding operations, including the National Stud, as well as the July course and several training yards. She has held her seat since 2015 but is forecast to lose to the Lib Dems.

Result expected: 5am

Lucy Frazer: faces a fight to hold her Ely and East Cambridgeshire seatCredit: Anadolu Agency

Newbury

Incumbent Laura Farris (Conservative)
Latest polling Lib Dem gain (43%-30%)
Latest odds bet365: 1-3 Lib Dems, 9-4 Conservatives, 20 bar 

Laura Farris described herself as a "staunch supporter" of British racing when she was joined on the campaign trail by former prime minister David Cameron at Ed Walker's yard last month. Her seat, which she is projected to lose to the Lib Dems, includes Newbury racecourse and Lambourn, which she labelled the "lifeblood of West Berkshire". She has called for racing to have "special arrangements" in the government's plans for gambling reform and in March met with gambling minister Stuart Andrew to discuss the industry's concerns around the financial impact of affordability checks. 

Result expected: 5am

Shipley

Incumbent Philip Davies (Conservative)
Latest polling Labour gain (46%-27%)
Latest odds bet365: 1-7 Labour, 9-2 Conservatives, 25 bar 

One of racing's staunchest allies in parliament is on the board of the Racehorse Owners Association and was part of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Racing and Bloodstock. He has represented Shipley since 2005 but is expected to lose his seat to Labour. Last month, the Sun reported that Davies had placed an £8,000 bet on himself to lose. 

Result expected: 5am

Tewkesbury

Incumbent Laurence Robertson (Conservative)
Latest polling Lib Dems gain (37%-31%)
Latest odds bet365: 8-11 Conservatives, evens Lib Dems, 18 bar 

The Tewkesbury constituency includes Cheltenham racecourse and is forecast to be narrowly won by the Lib Dems by YouGov, despite the Conservatives being ahead in the betting. He has often represented racing's case in parliament and in April met with Sunak to discuss the potential impact of affordability checks, as well as being an adviser to the BGC on sport and safer gambling. 

Result expected: 5am

Read these next:

Labour leader Keir Starmer: British racing 'makes a significant contribution to our economy'  

UK gambling minister Q&A: our goal is to protect the financial sustainability of British racing - I know this can be achieved 

It's looking like a landslide - but just what would a Labour government mean for racing? 

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