Three-year-old allowance in staying races to come down as part of European weight-for-age changes

Three-year-olds taking on older horses will have 1lb shaved off their allowance at distances of a mile and six furlongs and above, under changes to the weight-for-age scale agreed by the official handicappers of Britain, Ireland, France and Germany

In addition, the gap between two-year-olds and their elders will also be reduced by 1lb in some late-season sprint races this year, after a project led on behalf of the European Pattern Committee (EPC) by the BHA's head of handicapping, Dominic Gardiner-Hill. 

The trimming of 1lb off the allowances for three-year-olds in staying contests will be most relevant in races such as the Goodwood Cup over two miles – where the weight-for-age comes down from 15lb to 14b in late July or 12lb from 13lb if the race falls in early August – while the Irish St Leger differential over a mile and six furlongs in early September will be 8lb in place of 9lb. 

Arguably the Group 1 staying race in which three-year-olds have the best recent record is the Prix Royal-Oak over two miles at the end of October, and here the weight-for-age is adjusted from 8lb to 7lb in a race which has gone to the Classic generation in six of the last ten seasons. 

Double Major won the Prix Royal-Oak at both three and fourCredit: Racing Post/Burton

Using metrics including win impact value and percentage of runners beaten, Gardiner-Hill examined the effects of adjustments made to the weight-for-age scales ahead of the 2017 season, analysing both handicap and Pattern-race data to help establish whether three-year-olds had continued to over-perform in certain sections of the programme. 

Although the data shows a more general advantage to the Classic generation across British all-aged handicaps, the only statistically significant trend in Listed and Group races run in Britain, Ireland, France, Germany and Italy was observed in staying races over a mile and three-quarters and upwards. 

"The metrics at all distance categories up to 13.49 furlongs are about as close to ideal as you are going to get, but once again highlight three-year-old overperformance in races run in the extended distance category (13.5 furlongs-plus)," said Gardiner-Hill. "I therefore decided the only area which needed tweaking and bringing more into line this time around was the extended distance races.

"During the whole process I called upon the expertise of the senior Flat handicappers of Ireland, France and Germany whilst, on top of approval from the EPC, each jurisdiction will have presented the revised scale to their various domestic racing and stakeholder committees.." 

In 2022 The Platinum Queen became the first two-year-old to win the Prix de l'Abbaye since 1978Credit: Edward Whitaker

At Pattern level it remains relatively rare for juveniles to take advantage of the big pull in weights, with the Nunthorpe Stakes and the Prix de l'Abbaye – both Group 1s run over five furlongs – the most frequent races in which two-year-olds are asked to step out of their own age group. 

Across all categories the weight-for-age scales decrease as the year progresses and although the reduction of the juvenile allowance begins on August 1 for races over seven furlongs and a mile, changes over five furlongs do not kick in until the beginning of October. 

In practical terms that means a two-year-old lining up for the Nunthorpe in the second half of August will retain the current 24lb allowance against a three-year-old, while the same horse will receive 18lb for the Abbaye in early October against the previous 19lb. 

In 2022 The Platinum Queen became the first juvenile winner of the Abbaye since Sigy in 1978, and since 1956 only Lyric Fantasy (1992) and Kingsgate Native (2007) have won the Nunthorpe. 

The European Pattern Committee rules urge all jurisdictions to apply the same weight-for-age and sex allowances, and the redrawn imperial and metric tables have ironed out a couple of minor differences between countries at different stages of the calendar. 

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