Should you back or avoid these five favourites in the big races at Newmarket's Future Champions Festival?
We assess the chances of five favourites at Newmarket's Dubai Future Champions festival to determine whether you should back or avoid them at the current prices . . .
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Noble Dynasty
Race: Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Challenge Stakes (Group 2, 7f), 3.00 Friday
Odds: 11-4
Charlie Appleby's six-year-old has won five of his eight starts since being gelded, his most recent success coming in the Criterion Stakes at the July course on his penultimate outing.
The five runners in the Criterion Stakes are a combined 0-11 since, however, and that includes a heavy defeat for Noble Dynasty in the Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood when last seen in July.
He has questions to answer on the back of that no-show, while any rain between now and Friday would be a concern as he is yet to race on ground softer than good.
Verdict: Avoid
Desert Flower
Race: bet365 Fillies' Mile (Group 1, 1m), 3.35 Friday
Odds: 7-4
The daughter of Night Of Thunder is unbeaten in three starts, impressing with wins in a maiden and novice on the July course before justifying favouritism in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster last month.
Recent May Hill winners Laurens and Inspiral followed up in the Fillies' Mile and Desert Flower's performance looked like one of a Group 1 horse.
Her dam, Promising Run, disappointed in this race in 2015 and soft ground would be an unknown, but she looks the class angle in a race with the potential to cut up dramatically, so odds of 7-4 seem more than fair.
Verdict: Back
Lead Artist
Race: Space Blues Darley Stakes (Group 3, 1m1f), 1.15 Saturday
Odds: 7-2
John and Thady Gosden's colt has won twice in five starts, adding to a York novice win when landing the Group 3 Thoroughbred Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.
The three-year-old found only seven-furlong specialist Kinross too strong in the Park Stakes at Doncaster last time and on that evidence going back up in trip will suit.
Any rain would be a concern, though, as he has twice been withdrawn on account of soft ground, while he is going to need to find some improvement to trouble the older horses.
Verdict: Avoid
The Lion In Winter
Race: Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1, 7f), 3.00 Saturday
Odds: 5-4
Was the Aidan O'Brien second string on jockey bookings and in the betting for a Curragh maiden on his debut in July, but produced a smart turn of foot to run down a more experienced pair and score at odds of 11-2.
He maintained his unbeaten record when a length-and-three-quarter winner of the Acomb Stakes at York next time and that form has worked out well, with the second and fourth winning Group races since.
An exciting prospect and represents a stable that has won this race five times in the last nine years, but the Charlie Appleby-trained Shadow Of Light comes into this on the back of a four-length win at this track in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes and looks the value at the prices.
Verdict: Avoid
Sea Of Sands
Race: Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap (2m2f), 3.40 Saturday
Odds: 4-1
Has been a huge ante-post plunge since landing a maiden hurdle at Listowel on his debut for Willie Mullins last month.
Was a German Group 3 winner for previous trainer Jean-Pierre Carvalho and went off a single-figure price for the 2021 German Derby, so has enough in his earlier career to suggest that an opening mark of 97 could prove lenient, while his trainer won successive runnings of this race between 2018 and 2020.
He does look short enough at the 4-1 mark for such a competitive race, though, and only two of the last ten Cesarewitch favourites won.
Verdict: Avoid
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- Nicky Henderson: 'This time last year you’d be mortified if Constitution Hill was beaten, but it’s going to happen one day'
- Il Est Francais surges to head of King George market - but Emmet Mullins sounds Kempton ground warning for Corbetts Cross
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- 'You have to have a lot of heart' - Sam Thomas dreams of more Welsh Grand National success