Play or lay? Assessing the chances of the big-race favourites on Saturday

Another busy Saturday beckons with the Hungerford Stakes headlining Newbury’s card, the Futurity Stakes taking place at the Curragh and the Great St Wilfrid set to be the big betting race at Ripon. Here we assess the favourites for the feature races . . .

Kemari

1.50 Newbury (BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes)

Trainer Charlie Appleby

Jockey William Buick

Form figures 6-4251

Last start Won the Listed Fred Archer Stakes at Newmarket, his first victory since landing the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot in 2021. Al Aasy failed to run to form, trailing in last of five, but has since won at Listed and Group 3 level.

Play or lay verdict Only one win in last 12 starts, including four defeats at this level. Arrest is the one to beat on official ratings and forecast rain on Friday is a plus for him, while Klondike is another three-year-old with strong claims. Lay.

Summerghand

3.15 Ripon (William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap)

Trainer David O’Meara

Jockey Danny Tudhope

Form figures 700064

Last start A close fourth at York behind subsequent Stewards’ Cup winner Aberama Gold. The runner-up Manila Scouse has won twice since so it looks good form.

Play or lay verdict Posted best Racing Post Rating of the season on his most recent start and could be running into form. Best three RPRs on turf have been on good to firm, so predominantly dry forecast is a plus and drawn near some likely players in stall seven. One to be with rather than against. Play.

Summerghand15:15 Ripon

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Jky: Daniel Tudhope Tnr: David O'Meara

Henry Longfellow

3.27 Curragh (Coolmore Stud Wootton Bassett Irish EBF Futurity Stakes)

Trainer Aidan O’Brien

Jockey Ryan Moore

Form figures 1

Last start Course-and-distance winner in a maiden on debut, with the runner-up scoring on his next start and most recently finishing second in a Deauville Group 3. Second-highest RPR in the race in the last decade, recording a better figure than 2020 winner and subsequent dual top-level scorer Mac Swiney.

Play or lay verdict Aidan O’Brien has won eight of the last ten runnings and there is little to suggest Henry Longfellow is worth taking on. The one to beat on RPRs and has several fancy entries later in the season. Play.

Henry Longfellow15:27 Curragh

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Jky: Ryan Moore Tnr: A P O'Brien

Chindit

3.35 Newbury (BetVictor Hungerford Stakes)

Trainer Richard Hannon

Jockey Pat Dobbs

Form figures 68-126

Last start Sixth in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, beaten just over five lengths by Triple Time. Worst RPR in three starts this season but a fairly solid effort given he is dropping in grade to a Group 2 here.

Play or lay verdict This has become an easier assignment following the omission of ante-post favourite Sacred. Chindit trailed in eighth of nine behind the reopposing Jumby in this race last year but that came after five starts before the end of July compared to three this term. Forecast rain is a negative for Chindit, along with several other market principals, so take a chance on stablemates Mammas Girl and Witch Hunter instead at much bigger prices. Lay.

Pearls And Rubies

4.00 Curragh (Alpha Centauri Debutante Stakes)

Trainer Aidan O'Brien

Jockey Ryan Moore

Form figures 122

Last start Second at this track when sent off odds-on for the Group 3 Anglesey Stakes over 6½f. On RPRs, that represented a slight improvement on her second to Snellen in the Listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. 

Play or lay verdict Aidan O'Brien has won this race with the likes of Rhododendron, Magical and Meditate in recent years and it is therefore notable that he relies on Pearls And Rubies. Stepping back up to 7f is expected to suit and the sounder surface is another plus, but she could not justify favouritism in a weaker race here last time and looks vulnerable to a less exposed rival on Saturday. Lay.

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