Newbury Super Sprint and Irish Oaks: who do the trends favour in Saturday's two big Flat races?

Newbury's Super Sprint and the Curragh's Irish Oaks are the big races on Saturday

The Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes (3.35) and Juddmonte Irish Oaks (3.40) are the major Flat prizes in store on Saturday. We have used previous trends to assess who is best placed to land these contests.

Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes (3.35 Newbury)

Form

Eight of the last ten winners of the Super Sprint posted a top-three finish last time so it pays to side with those coming into the race in form. Archie Watson's Vingegaard finished fifth in the Windsor Castle Stakes last time and is the shortest-priced runner to fall short on this trend.

Experience

Nine of the last ten winners of the Super Sprint had run at least twice beforehand. The once-raced Time For Sandals – popular in the betting since declarations were made – has recent history against him.

Distance

Identifying horses with winning form at the Super Sprint's 5f trip has been a good guide to finding recent winners. The Clive Cox-trained Mythical Composer won impressively at Bath last time, but that success came over a trip half a furlong further than the Super Sprint.

Verdict

Hugo Palmer's It Ain't Two ticks plenty of boxes and finished clear of the remainder when runner-up in Listed company at Sandown on his latest start. He gets the nod ahead of the Karl Burke-trained Kaadi.

It Ain't Two15:35 Newbury

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Jky: Oisin Murphy Tnr: Hugo Palmer

Juddmonte Irish Oaks (3.40 Curragh)

Form

Nine of the last ten winners of the Irish Oaks finished in the top two on their start beforehand. Content, the market leader and mount of Ryan Moore, finished third in the Pretty Polly Stakes last time.

Experience

It pays to side with those proven at Pattern level in the Irish Oaks, with the last ten winners having won a Listed or Group race earlier in the season. The Willie Mullins-trained Lope De Lilas has only a Leopardstown maiden success to her name.

Distance

Proven stamina accounts for plenty in the Irish Oaks with the last ten winners having won over at least 1m2f previously. Noel Meade's Caught U Looking is winless since landing the 7f Weld Park Stakes in September.

Verdict

Port Fairy fares best of Aidan O'Brien's three runners on the trends, while Lava Stream, a neck behind Port Fairy in the Ribblesdale Stakes, is also respected. At the prices, however, preference is for Johnny Murtagh's Hanalia. She came with a strong run to win a 1m2½f Listed race at Naas last time and on that evidence looks sure to appreciate the step up to 1m4f.