Could Willie Mullins win the Betfair Chase with his first runner? The lowdown on 8-1 shot Capodanno

Capodanno was supplemented for the Betfair Chase at a cost of £7,200 on Monday and could be Willie Mullins’ first runner in the Grade 1 at Haydock. Here we provide the lowdown on the race and the JP McManus-owned chaser . . .

The race’s history

Haydock’s feature chase is the first Grade 1 of the season in Britain and has an illustrious roll of honour since its inception in 2005.

Kauto Star is the most successful horse in the event’s history, having won in 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2011, while Cue Card took the prize in 2013, 2015 and 2016.

Kauto Star: won the Betfair Chase four timesCredit: Edward Whitaker

Bristol De Mai was another three-time winner in 2017, 2018 and 2020, while last year’s running went to Royale Pagaille, who has four wins and a second to his name from five starts at Haydock.

The Irish record

A Plus Tard is the sole Irish-trained winner of the Betfair Chase. The Cheveley Park Stud-owned chaser struck for Henry de Bromhead in 2021.

Rachael Blackmore’s mount was pulled up when bidding for back-to-back wins as the 1-2 favourite the following year, while there was no Irish representation in last year’s running.

A Plus Tard: the only Irish-trained winner in the race's historyCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Six of the other ten Irish-trained runners in the race finished second or third. Beef Or Salmon had form figures of 223 in the Betfair Chase in 2005-2007, while Kicking King was a beaten odds-on favourite when third in 2005.

What Capodanno has achieved

Capodanno is unlikely to trouble Galopin Des Champs in the staying chase ranks at Mullins' Closutton yard but he does have a Grade 1 win to this name.

That came in a novice chase at the Punchestown festival in 2022 but he has a 1-8 record since.

Capodanno has failed to figure in the last two runnings of the Grand National but did beat three of his possible rivals at Haydock when landing the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham in January. 

Capodanno: won the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham in JanuaryCredit: Alan Crowhurst

He was beaten by seven lengths in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival on his next start and was last seen finishing eighth of nine in the Punchestown Gold Cup won by Fastorslow in May.

Official ratings

Capodanno is joint-fifth with Charlie Hall Chase winner The Real Whacker on official ratings in this potential field of ten.

Ahoy Senor, who returned with a promising third in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree, is the top-rated entry on a mark of 169 and has 10lb to spare over Capodanno on official figures.

Ahoy Senor: the top-rated Betfair Chase entryCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

King George VI Chase winners Bravemansgame and Hewick and course specialist Royale Pagaille share a rating of 165, which is 6lb above Capodanno.

The betting

Punters are siding with potential in the ante-post market, with Turners Novices’ Chase winner Grey Dawning heading the betting at 15-8.

The Dan Skelton-trained seven-year-old won a graduation chase at this track last season and is Britain’s shortest-priced Cheltenham Gold Cup hope at 16-1. The Skeltons won the Betfair Chase with Protektorat two years ago.

Grey Dawning: exciting chaser heads the bettingCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Ahoy Senor and Royale Pagaille are vying for second favouritism at around 4-1. Capodanno, who is also entered in the John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown on Sunday, is next in the betting at a best-priced 8-1 with Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power.

Tipster assessment

This is a strange one because here is a horse who tends to show his best form in the new year, trained by a man who often saves his runners for the new year, being supplemented to compete in an event in which his trainer has never had a runner. It all points to a no-show.

That could quite easily happen. All of my instincts are telling me that Capodanno won’t be fully wound up for this first run since May and he doesn’t have a great record when fresh. His form figures either first time out, or after breaks of at least 50 days, are 2313P6.

Only Willie Mullins, Frank Berry and JP McManus will know why they have stumped up the money to supplement and maybe Capodanno is flying at home. But it would seem unlikely given that Mullins rarely has his horses ready now.

It’s possible Capodanno is in there in the hope that the race cuts up like it has done before. That might leave easy prize-money for the taking. I could well be wrong, but that’s my best guess.
Graeme Rodway, deputy betting editor

Betfair Chase, 3.05 Haydock, Saturday
Betfair: 7-4 Grey Dawning, 4 Ahoy Senor, 9-2 Royale Pagaille, 7 Hewick, 8 Capodanno, 9 Bravemansgame, 12 The Real Whacker, 16 Gold Tweet, Limerick Lace, 40 Minella Drama.

Read more . . .

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