Cheveley Park and Middle Park contenders: expert analysis and a tip for the Group 1 contests at Newmarket on Saturday

The Cheveley Park Stakes (2.25) and the Middle Park Stakes (3.00) provide Group 1 action at Newmarket on Saturday. Here, we assess the leading contenders in both races and give a verdict on who will come out on top . . .

Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes

The key contenders . . .

Babouche

Unbeaten in three career starts, supplementing a Cork maiden success with wins at the Curragh in the Group 3 Anglesey Stakes and Group 1 Phoenix Stakes. Had the Middle Park favourite Whistlejacket a length and a half behind in the Phoenix and that colt has since franked the form with a win in the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville. Will be back against her own sex on Saturday and must hold strong claims, for all that soft or heavy ground would be an unknown.

Babouche (left): winner of the Phoenix Stakes under Colin KeaneCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Lake Victoria

Looked value for further than the winning margin when a narrow winner of a Curragh maiden on her debut in June and followed up impressively in the Sweet Solera Stakes on Newmarket's July course next time. She made it three from three when a length-and-a-quarter winner of the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes this month, coming with a decisive run after being held up at the back of the five-runner field. Her three wins have all come over 7f, but she looks speedy enough to handle the drop back in trip and her dam Quiet Reflection was a Group 1-winning sprinter who appreciated testing ground.

Celandine

Front-running filly who made all when landing the Listed Empress Fillies' Stakes at the July course earlier this year. Ran well in defeat against the boys in the Prix Robert Papin and Molecomb Stakes before the switch to fillies'-only company saw her run out a narrow winner of last month's Lowther Stakes at York. Her form figures against her own sex reads 7111, but she looks more exposed than most after six starts and on Racing Post Ratings needs to improve to win.

Celandine: winner of the Lowther Stakes at YorkCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Daylight

Ran out an impressive winner of a Chantilly maiden on her debut in May before finishing third when sent off the 11-10 favourite for a Group 3 back at that venue next time. She atoned for that defeat with a comfortable win at Deauville in July and was last seen staying on for third in the Prix Morny. Back against her own sex here and the forecast rain will suit, but the Morny form suggests she had a bit to find with the favourite Babouche.

Rayevka

Narrowly denied on her debut at Deauville last month before justifying skinny odds when an emphatic five-length winner of a Chantilly maiden, when she looked potentially above average. Has been supplemented for this race at a cost of £20,000 and her trainer Francis Graffard has enjoyed a fine season with his runners in Britain. This represents a big step up in class, but she's dangerous to rule out.

Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (2.25 Newmarket, 6f Group 1)
Paddy Power: 13-8 Babouche, 5-2 Lake Victoria, 9 Celandine, 10 Daylight, Truly Enchanting, 14 Rayevka, 16 Heavens Gate, Leovanni, 20 Arabian Dusk, Bubbling, 25 Merrily, 40 Maw Lam, 50 Greydreambeliever, Magic Mild

Verdict

Babouche and Lake Victoria put their unbeaten records on the line and it is the latter who is fancied to come out on top. She produced a telling turn of foot when landing the Moyglare over 7f last time and her proven stamina should come in handy dropped back in trip. Being a daughter of the top-class sprinter Quiet Reflection, who relished testing ground, a likely soft surface is not expected to pose a problem.

Lake Victoria14:25 Newmarket

View Racecard

Jky: Tnr: A P O'Brien

Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes

The key contenders . . .

Whistlejacket

Has gained three wins in a six-race career, most recently justifying favouritism in the Prix Morny at Deauville for a Group 1 breakthrough. All three victories have been achieved with soft in the going description, so the forecast rain looks a plus, and he is the only Group 1 winner in this line-up.

Ides Of March

Has seen his RPR improve in all four career starts, getting off the mark at the third attempt when a three-length winner of a Curragh maiden last month. He was stepped up to Group 3 level on the back of that success and justified odds of 2-5 with another comprehensive win. This race was nominated as a target afterwards and he retains plenty of upside.

Ides Of March: impressive winner of the Round Tower Stakes at the Curragh last timeCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Shadow Of Light

Closely related to 2019 Middle Park winner Earthlight and he comes into this race with a progressive profile. Winner of a Yarmouth maiden and a novice on the July course before finishing a creditable second in the Gimcrack Stakes at York last time. Looks open to plenty of improvement but it will be needed at this level, and he was withdrawn from last week's Mill Reef Stakes on account of testing ground.

Black Forza

Claimed a Fairyhouse maiden on his second start before following up in the Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, where he benefited from being held up in a race where the leaders went off hard. Faded into fourth after challenging wide in a valuable Listed race at Kentucky last time and while this this track is expected to suit him better he is going to need to put up a career-best to trouble the market principals.

Black Forza (right): winner of the Richmond Stakes at Glorious GoodwoodCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Defence Minister

Defied trouble in running to land a novice on the July course on his debut before following up at Haydock this month, when he defied a penalty and looked strong at the line. Open to plenty of improvement on the back of two starts and has been supplemented for this at a cost of £20,000, but his connections have warned he is unlikely to run if the ground turns testing.

Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (3.00 Newmarket, 6f Group 1)
Paddy Power: Evs Whistlejacket, 3 Ides Of March, 6 Shadow Of Light, 7 Black Forza, 10 Henri Matisse, 16 Defence Minister, 20 Andesite, Camille Pissarro, 33 Intrusively, Jouncy, 50 Dash Dizzy, Treasure Isle

Verdict

Whistlejacket sets the standard courtesy of his Prix Morny success, but stablemate Ides Of March comes into this on the back of two electric wins at the Curragh and is selected to bring up the hat-trick. The son of Wootton Bassett is on an upward career trajectory and does not have much to find with the favourite on RPRs.