2023 King George: who wins the big race at Kempton based on previous trends?

2023 King George VI Chase: who wins the big race at Kempton based on previous trends?

Bravemansgame: King George winner earlier this season

Bravemansgame: winner of last year's King George at KemptonCredit: Mark Cranham

The Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (2.30 Kempton, Tuesday) takes centre stage on Boxing Day and it looks like another high-class field with seven runners confirmed on Wednesday for this year's running of the 3m spectacular. We have used previous trends to assess who is best equipped to land this year's contest.

Age

Eight of the last ten winners were aged seven or eight with the exceptions being the six-year-old Clan Des Obeaux in 2018 and nine-year-old Cue Card in 2015.

At 11 years old, Frodon would be the oldest winner since Kauto Star claimed his fifth and final victory in 2011.

Class

Recent winners have tended to be proven at Grade 1 level, with Clan Des Obeaux (2018) the only winner in the last ten years who was breaking through at the top level.

Clan Des Obeaux and Harry Cobden come away from Thistlecrack to land the King George VI Chase at KemptonCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

This year's confirmations are littered with previous Grade 1 winners, including Royale Pagaille, who landed his first top-level contest in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last month.

Ratings

Frodon registered a Racing Post Rating of 168 when landing the King George in 2020, while Cue Card achieved a figure of 180 for his victory over Vautour in 2015. The average winning RPR in the last ten years is 174.

Hewick (168) and The Real Whacker (163) have failed to achieve a RPR of 174 in their careers.

Form

Five of the last ten runnings went to horses who prepped with a win. The remaining five winners failed to finish worse than fifth on their previous start.

Odds

Favourites do not have the strongest recent record, with only three market leaders obliging in the last ten years – the most recent winning favourite was Might Bite in 2017.

Might Bite (Nico de Boinville) jumps the last fence and wins the King George VI ChaseKempton 26.12.17 Pic: Edward Whitaker

Might Bite (Nico de Boinville) jumps the last fence and wins the King George VI Chase in 2017Credit: Edward Whitaker

Since then, three winners have been priced at double figures, with Tornado Flyer scoring at 28-1 in 2021.

Verdict

Bravemansgame ticks plenty of boxes and the fact he is in the care of Paul Nicholls, who has trained three back-to-back winners in Kauto Star, Silviniaco Conti and Clan Des Obeaux, does no harm to his chances of retaining his crown.