2021 Breeders' Cup Classic at Del Mar: key trainer quotes and expert analysis

Sunday: 12.40am Del Mar
Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) | 1m2f | 3yo+ | ITV/RTV/Sky

This has all the makings of a typically gruelling Classic, so it is sure to provide the sort of epic spectacle we relish in these championship middle-distance dirt Grade 1s.

The Brad Cox-trained Knicks Go, a five-year-old who made all en route to an emphatic success in the Dirt Mile at Keeneland last year, has since added the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park and the Whitney Stakes to his CV with similarly relentless front-running displays. He arrives here on a four-timer and has the assistance of the excellent Joel Rosario, but this is his first stab at ten furlongs.

With the controversial Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit also likely to go hard early under Johnny Velazquez, there will be no hiding place. Five of the last ten Classic winners have made all, including when Gun Runner triumphed here in 2017.

Essential Quality is among those likely to be closing at the death. Knicks Go's three-year-old stablemate couldn't overcome a wide draw in the Kentucky Derby when fourth to Medina Spirit, but he then landed the Belmont Stakes over 12 furlongs and has tacked on two more since, latterly taking the Travers Stakes at Saratoga in August.

He comes here fresh and could rattle this.

Essential Quality's form ties in closely with Hot Rod Charlie for Doug O'Neill and Flavien Prat. They were first and second in the Juvenile a year ago, fourth and third in the Derby and first and second in the Belmont.

When Hot Rod Charlie won the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx, he decisively beat Midnight Bourbon, who had previously got to within a neck of Essential Quality in the Travers, albeit off a suspect gallop.

Key stat

7/7
All seven Breeders' Cup dirt winners at Del Mar in 2017 were drawn five or above

Hot Rod Charlie, who also passed the post in front in the Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park only to be disqualified for interference, is versatile tactically and surely won't be far away.

Steve Asmussen won the Classic with Gun Runner the last time the Breeders' Cup was staged at Del Mar in 2017, and he is represented by Max Player, who is a bit of a late bloomer who landed the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga last time. The Bill Mott-trained Art Collector is another four-year-old who comes here on the back of a Grade 1 success in the Woodward Stakes at Belmont.

It would be a shock if they could live with the big four, of which Essential Quality looks the most likely winner.

Cox 'can't separate' his pair

Brad Cox farmed four wins at the 2020 Breeders' Cup and, in Knicks Go and Essential Quality, the market suggests he has serious claims of landing a first Classic.

In the past three years, Cox has gone from never having had a Breeders' Cup winner to accumulating seven. Now, in Knicks Go and Essential Quality, both winners at the meeting 12 months ago, he has two of the leading candidates for Horse of the Year honours as well.

Their cumulative 2021 record is nine wins from 12 outings, which is quite a stat. Given his pair's contrasting running styles, Cox seems to have the bases covered tactically, with the five-year-old Knicks Go likely to seek to capitalise on the fast track by leading from gate to wire and the three-year-old Luis Saez-ridden Essential Quality a strong finisher who would become the first horse to carry Godolphin’s blue silks to victory in this were he to prevail.

Knicks Go: likely to go hard from the gateCredit: Coglianese Photos/Lauren King

"I can't separate them," Cox says. "I think it does set up well for Essential Quality. He's able to adjust to the pace and that's what makes him so dangerous each and every run. We're probably getting a pace similar or maybe even hotter than it was in the Kentucky Derby.

"It is very rare for a horse to do what Knicks Go can do. There's some other speed in the race, but I think he's the speed of the speed, and we're not going to take that away from him. We're going to be very aggressive, hopefully clear off. That gives him his best opportunity to win."

Medina Spirit, who still faces being disqualified from the Kentucky Derby after testing positive for the therapeutic substance betamethasone, would be a controversial winner. On form though, he would also be a worthy one.

Given his busy schedule – the Derby was his fifth run of the year – it was probably no surprise that he couldn't follow up in the Preakness when he was hassled for the lead throughout.

However, he benefited from a break to return with a straightforward win here at Del Mar over a mile in August, before running his rivals ragged when thrust back into Grade 1 company in the Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita. He is a serious operator and has the assistance of last year's winning rider, Johnny Velazquez, from stall eight.

Medina Spirit: last year's Classic-winning jockey John Velazquez is in the saddleCredit: Tim Nwachukyu (Getty Images)

What they say

Juan Leyva, assistant to John Sadler, trainer of Tripoli
We know he likes this track, he likes the distance and he's doing well. If the race falls apart he could get a piece of it.

John Shireffs, trainer of Express Train
He likes this track a lot and he's doing well. This race looks like there'll be a lot of speed. If so, ideally, I'd like to see him break running, then follow the leaders in the second flight of horses. He likes to be outside of horses.

Doug O'Neill, trainer of Hot Rod Charlie
There's such a long run to the first turn, so any nine of the posts is probably not a big deal but 'Charlie' has good gate speed. He'll try to put himself in a good position and I feel good that we can find ourselves a good spot. He's put in some really good works since the Pennsylvania Derby so I'm optimistic we're going to see a big effort from him.

Bill Mott, trainer of Art Collector
He's just improved on his own and we haven't done anything really, except let him lead one winning effort into another and build himself from race to race. He looks stronger and has continued to develop, which is what you hope a four-year-old is going to do.

Bob Baffert, trainer of Medina Spirit
I really can't do anything about the draw. The break is always important, so that might help determine how the races shapes up. He likes this track.

Steve Asmussen, trainer of Max Player
I thought he looked really good over the Del Mar surface and then he drew post nine, which I think is ideal for him in a race that obviously has considerably more pace than his last two races. We still want to get him in the rhythm that he's had success with in the last two races.

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