Better even than Frankel: Pinatubo rated 128 after National Stakes demolition

Pinatubo's sensational nine-length victory in the Goffs Vincent O'Brien National Stakes has earned him a rating of 128 with the BHA – a higher mark than the legendary Frankel achieved as a juvenile.

Frankel finished his two-year-old campaign on 126 alongside Dream Ahead in 2010. New Approach, three years earlier, earned the same figure, while in 1997 Xaar finished on 127. Celtic Swing (130 in 1994) was the last two-year-old to be rated higher than Pinatubo.

Pinatubo's end-of-season figure has yet to be determined as it could be affected by his performance in the Darley Dewhurst Stakes. However, BHA handicapper Graeme Smith – who came to the figure of 128 – described Pinatubo as "the most exciting two-year-old we've seen in a long, long time".

Pinatubo: destroyed his rivals in the National StakesCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Explaining the decision to rate Pinatubo as the best two-year-old for 25 years, Smith said: "It was a truly run race, no doubt about it. He's run a cracking time and instantly you know the performance was trustworthy.

"He's beaten Armory, a Group 3 and a Group 2 winner, and Arizona won the Coventry, so he's beaten the right horses by a hell of a distance. If there is any slight doubt to the form you're looking at Monoski in fourth, who'd been beaten in a nursery at York off a mark of 93.

"But that day he looked like he was crying out for seven furlongs, so I've no problem at all having him show some improvement for the step up in trip.

"We certainly keep historical standards in mind to make sure we're not rating races wide of the mark of where they should be.

"Historically, in the context of this race, it points to a 128 or 129 in terms of Pinatubo's performance. So we've got the clock, the historical, the distance back to several Pattern winners.

"It all pointed to something around 127-129 and 128 was the figure I was most comfortable with. That's not only form on the day, but taking a greater view historically as to what other high achievers have done."

Explaining how Pinatubo compares with other great two-year-olds of the last 30 years, Smith added: "If 128 were to be his end-of-season figure that's the best since Celtic Swing and Arazi, who were 130. Green Forest (1981) and El Gran Senor (1983) were 128. Historically, they are his only peers.

"I did judge him against the strength of their form. The barometer to anything these days is going to be Frankel, whose form as a juvenile didn't quite amount to the same as when he was as a three and four-year-old.

"He and Dream Ahead were joint-champions. Dream Ahead won the Middle Park by nine lengths on soft ground with quite a few wide-margin winners that day, but he had the Coventry winner in second, the Gimcrack winner in third and the Robert Papin winner in fourth.

"Frankel got the same 126 for his ten-length win in the Royal Lodge from the Horris Hill winner, and in the Dewhurst he beat a subsequent Classic winner in Roderic O'Connor.

"New Approach got 126 for beating Rio De La Plata, who became a Group 1 winner. Myboycharlie beat Natagora in the Morny and was third, so that form was strong, but there was nothing like a nine-length margin, so we felt Pinatubo had achieved more than that.

"Xaar, got 127 and nothing had been higher since him. He won two Group 1s. He beat Tamarisk who went on to win Group 1s as a sprinter, and he beat him seven lengths, but he'd only won two conditions races at the time. Pinatubo's beaten two Group winners by nine.

"We thought Pinatubo was worth more than any of them. Celtic Swing, however, beat Singspiel eight lengths in the Hyperion, with another ten lengths back to the third. Then, in the Racing Post Trophy he put 12 lengths into Annus Mirabilis who'd won the Somerville and then there was another length and a half to Juyush, who was third in the Royal Lodge.

"When you look at that extra three-length margin over those horses, it is probably a better performance than Pinatubo produced as things stand. Putting him ahead of Xaar and behind Celtic Swing left us 128 or 129, which tied in with our analysis. To have the maths and historicals all pointing towards 128 rather than 129 is how we got to where we are."

Pinatubo's two-year-old campaign is not yet over and he still has the opportunity to match, or even leapfrog, those above him.

"It's a current rating; these things are ratified at the end of the season," explained Smith. "The European classifications will be his final mark and by then we'll have hopefully seen him again in the Dewhurst, and whether Armory and Arizona come out and boost the form.

"If so, we're looking up from here; if they bomb out in a couple of subsequent runs we're potentially looking down. There's scope for his rating to go either way, but of course it could go up.

"He's fantastic, isn't he? It'd be lovely to think something will come and have a crack at him in the Dewhurst – there's got to be half a chance they're frightened of him now, but it is the season's premier two-year-old Group 1, so it would be great to see another serious performance."

For the freshest betting advice, based on latest going and market conditions, don't miss the Live Tipster every afternoon. Just click Raceday Live at racingpost.com or the mobile app