Who will win the 2021 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe based on previous trends?

The Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe takes place this Sunday with a top-class field lining up at Longchamp (3.05). We look at previous Arcs and pick out the key factors to help predict this year's winner.

3.05 Longchamp Sunday: Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe racecard and betting

Previous Arc runs

The Jean-Claude Rouget-trained Raabihah is the only horse in the field to have previously contested the Arc – she finished fifth in last year's race, beaten just over four lengths by Sottsass. In the last ten years only three horses have won the Arc having previously been beaten.

Found improved from her luckless run in 2015 to lead home a famous Aidan O'Brien 1-2-3 in 2016. Waldgeist could manage only fourth in 2018 before silencing the Longchamp crowd in 2019 when denying Enable a historic third win in the race and Sottass improved from his 2019 third to score in 2020.

Age

Of the last 20 winners, 11 were three-year-olds and seven were four-year-olds. As the oldest horses in the race, Tarnawa, Chrono Genesis and Broome will attempt to emulate Marienbard and Waldgeist by winning the race at the age of five. The last five-year-old mare to win the Arc was Corrida in 1937. Tarnawa and Chrono Genesis will attempt to end an 84-year drought.

The Classic generation have an exceptional strike-rate and they look to have a strong hand this year with Adayar, Hurricane Lane and Snowfall set to line up, while Alenquer, Baby Rider, Bubble Gift, Mojo Star, Sealiway and Teona also fit into this category.

2021 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe tips: why this horse can win Sunday's big race

Form

Six of the last ten winners came to Longchamp following wins. Solemia is the only one of the last ten winners not to have previously landed a Group 1, suggesting proven class is even more important. That is a negative for Deep Bond, Raabihah, Alenquer, Baby Rider and Bubble Gift, all of whom are Group 2 winners, along with Mojo Star, the two-time Classic runner-up who has only won a Newbury maiden.

Distance

All of the last ten winners of the Arc had won over a mile and a half and this is one of the most crucial factors. Baby Rider has yet to win over the trip, although he was beaten only a nose by Bubble Gift over course and distance in the Prix Niel. On her last start Raabihah, won over half a furlong further in the Prix de Pomone.

Hurricane Lane will attempt to make history by becoming the first St Leger winner to win the Arc in the same season in its 101-year history. Nijinsky came closest in 1970, beaten a head by Sassafras having previously completed the Triple Crown, while Ballymoss won in France in 1958, one year on from his St Leger triumph.

2021 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: Oisin Murphy thrilled by first meeting with Japanese Arc hope Chrono Genesis

Other factors

1993 Arc heroine Urban Sea makes her presence felt in the pedigrees of 11 of the 16 possible runners in this year's race.

Her late son Galileo and his progeny have dominated the race in recent years, with successes from Found (2016), Waldgeist (2019) and his granddaughter Enable (2017 and 2018).

This year Galileo is represented as the sire of Love and grandsire of Adayar and Hurricane Lane (Frankel), Sealiway (Galiway), Broome (Australia), Baby Rider (Gleneagles) and Bubble Gift (Nathaniel). He is also the damsire of Snowfall. Urban Sea's Arc winning son of 2009, Sea The Stars is the sire of three runners – Raabihah, Teona and Mojo Star.

The winners of the traditional Arc trials have struggled to back up in the Arc itself. Winners of the Arc trials fared as follows: Prix Niel 0040303; Prix Foy 72290641; Prix Vermeille 99140. The winners of the Derby finished 7719 and Irish Derby 0790.

Seven of the last ten winners have been fillies, which bodes well for the chances of Tarnawa, Snowfall, Chrono Genesis, Love, Raabihah and Teona.

Favourites have a poor record in the race with only two winners in the last ten years, both being Enable.

2021 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: essential info for the big race at Longchamp

Ground

Arcs run on soft and heavy ground are much less susceptible to draw bias.

On good ground, ten of the last 11 winners were from a single-figure stall but on testing ground, from soft to heavy, three of the last eight were from double-figure stalls, two between nine and six and three lower than five.

It appears pretty balanced and, despite wide draws traditionally deemed harder to win from, they could be worth close attention if conditions are as expected at Paris.

Verdict

The trends suggest the Derby and Oaks winners from Epsom will play a leading role in this year's race.

Snowfall looks to have plenty in her favour. Fillies and mares have a great record in the race, as do three-year-olds, and she has won over a mile and a half on three occasions, including two Classics. She is versatile ground-wise, and, while her defeat in the Prix Vermeille came as a shock, both Solemia and Treve bounced back from defeats in the same race to claim the Arc in 2012 and 2014 respectively. However, they were both four-year-olds.

Adayar v Hurricane Lane: our experts disagree on who is the better Arc candidate

Adayar attempts to become the first horse since Lammtarra in 1995 to win the Derby, King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes and Arc. Enable completed the fillies' equivalent when winning the Oaks in 2017. Adayar has won on ground varying from soft, good to soft and good to firm, and his form has gone from strength to strength. He had Mojo Star and Hurricane Lane behind him in the Derby and convincingly dispatched Love and Broome in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He has a leading chance.

Read more on the 2021 Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: Adayar and Snowfall supplemented for €120,000

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe forfeits: Mojo Star not certain to run as 14 remain

Dermot Weld: Tarnawa is very well but Chrono Genesis could be hard to beat (Members' Club)

'He holds some brilliant form' – Marquand excited about Arc dark horse Alenquer

New 888 customers can get £40 in free bets when they place a £10 bet. £10 deposit using promo code "RACING". The first bet must be placed on horseracing. Minimum stake £10 at odds of 1/2 (1.5). Free bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after seven days. Free bet stakes not included in returns. Deposit balance is available for withdrawal at any time. General deposit method and withdrawal restrictions apply. Full T&Cs apply. Click here to claim the offer