'It's his to lose' - why this horse can win the 2022 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

The Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (3.05 Longchamp) takes centre stage on Sunday and Europe's richest race has attracted several top-quality horses. Here our experts pick out their fancy for the big race . . .

Luxembourg

Odds: 7-2f

By David Jennings, deputy Ireland editor

It's boring, but Luxembourg is a very good three year-old colt and I don't think this is a very good Arc.

It would be a different story if Baaeed, or Desert Crown, or even Adayar, had showed up but, now that none of those are here, it looks like Luxembourg's Arc to lose.

It is entirely possible he will be even better over 1m4f than 1m2f and his relaxed demeanour gives him every chance of being just that. He won the Vertem Futurity on pretty deep ground last season and I don't envisage the ground being an issue. He looks the most talented horse in the race.

Torquator Tasso

Odds: 6-1

By James Hill, tipster

I’m going to side with last year’s winner, who has the best form in the book when defeating Tarnawa, Hurricane Lane and Adayar 12 months ago, and on that basis he should be favourite.

The ground looks like it’s coming right for him, especially with the threat of rain on Sunday, and I thought his second in the King George was a great effort considering conditions were too quick.

Torquator Tasso (right): encouragement to take from his King George secondCredit: Getty Images

Granted, he wasn't at his best last time, but that was just a prep and he’ll be on his mettle now. He'll also have stall 18 to overcome, but he was good enough to win from a wide draw last year and I don't see why he can't pull it off again.

Onesto

Odds: 12-1

By Graeme Rodway, deputy betting editor

I'm convinced the three-year-olds are stronger than the older horses this year and Onesto is the outstanding middle-distance colt of that age in France.

He was a big eyecatcher when a strong-finishing fifth from an unpromising position in the Prix du Jockey Club, running some fast closing sectionals, and has improved since.

He beat subsequent Prix Niel winner Simca Mille, and St Leger scorer Eldar Eldarov, in the Grand Prix de Paris over course and distance next time and did well to run Luxembourg to half a length when second in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown most recently.

He is a better horse over a mile and a half and can prove that by reversing those places here.

Mostahdaf

Odds: 50-1

By Harry Wilson, reporter

After his demolition job of Dubai Honour in the September Stakes at Kempton last time, 50-1 about Mostahdaf just seems ridiculously big.

The Shadwell-owned four-year-old is yet to win above Group 3 level, but has been running well in good company on faster ground, which doesn't bring out the best in him.

Mostahdaf: overpriced for the Arc according to Harry WilsonCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

He's 4-5 on ground described as good or softer and he's won on the two occasions he has encountered soft ground, so the return to easier underfoot conditions should see him put in a bold bid. John and Thady Gosden have been patient with Mostahdaf and after his career-best performance last time, he may just surprise a few at the top of the market.

Do Deuce

Odds: 33-1

By Scott Burton, France correspondent

The old rule that three-year-old colts dominate the Arc has been swept away in the decade or so since Sea The Stars weaved his way through the Paris traffic, with only Golden Horn successful in the interim.

But this year's crop looks well up to standard, while many of the leading older fancies are drawn poorly, including last year's hero Torquator Tasso.

Onesto would have been a confident selection had the rain stayed away but his electric acceleration could be blunted should the forecast weekend rain arrive and, while Westover is interesting, he'll need to improve.

Do Deuce has a wonderful draw in stall three and will get the best of the ground, so I take him to give Yutaka Take and Japan their first triumph.

Bubble Gift

Odds: 80-1

By Owen Goulding, tipster

Given he was not beaten far by Alpinista when third in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in July, the price of Bubble Gift is slightly baffling.

Granted, he is yet to win at Group 1 level, but he is a dual Group 2 scorer and ran to a similar standard in that grade last time, an effort that should have put him in perfect shape for this.

He ran better than the bare result when finishing midfield in last year's Arc, not helped by a tardy start, and he will be well suited by a strongly run race on a softer surface. His consistent profile is another tick in the box and I'm more than happy with his price, especially with enhanced place terms.

Alpinista

Odds: 5-1

By Jack Haynes, reporter

You have to go back to 1937 to find the last five-year-old mare to win the Arc, but frankly, the majority of top-class mares are retired by five and those still running tend not to be among the highest calibre. That's not the case with Alpinista.

She arrives on the back of five straight Group 1 wins and took her form to the next level – in turn recording a career-best Racing Post Rating – when beating Tuesday in the Yorkshire Oaks.

The draw [stall six] was favourable and there's plenty in Alpinista's favour. I make her the one to beat.

2022 Arc offers

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• If you're a new customer, Tote will give you a free bet. Sign up here to claim.

If you want more on the 2022 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:

2022 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: the runners, the odds, the verdict

Who wins the 2022 Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe based on previous trends?

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