'A complete dilemma' - Kublers mull big Hong Kong offers for stable star Outgate

Connections of smart handicapper Outgate are debating whether to follow the path of Baaeed or sell the three-year-old to Hong Kong after receiving "telephone number" offers.

Trained by Daniel Kubler and his wife Claire, whose parents Gary and Lesley Middlebrook bred and own the Outstrip colt, Outgate has won two of his four starts this season and could appear next in a handicap at the Newmarket July meeting.

The track's Listed Edmondson Hall Solicitors Sir Henry Cecil Stakes and the Group 3 Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes at Glorious Goodwood – both won last year by Baaeed – are other options if he remains in Britain.

"Gary and Lesley have a big breeding operation and have other sources of income, but it costs a lot to breed 20-25 mares every year," Daniel Kubler said on Friday after Outgate had led third lot on the Lambourn gallops in the hands of Shaun Johnson.

"You need to sell some to keep the whole thing going and, because of who he's by, he was difficult to sell as a yearling.

"Unless he goes and wins a Group 1 or Group 2, and he's been beaten twice already this year, so he's not suddenly going to turn into that level of horse, it's very hard to say what to do.

"I'd love to keep him because we want to compete at higher levels and take good horses as far as we can. We can advise the owners as to what level we think the horse can get to and he's a very good horse. He's proved that, but is he the next Baaeed? The reality is no."

Daniel and Claire Kubler: trainers are based in LambournCredit: Edward Whitaker

Even by winning a Group race, the 98-rated Outgate would be a hard sell as a stallion, which might be another factor in the decision-making process.

"Outgate has won £110,000 and he's been aimed at prize-money," added Kubler, who watched his stable star's juvenile half-brother by Cracksman canter during fourth lot.

"The races he's run in have been the most valuable at the time. I think what he's won is fair, but we've really worked at it. Take Percy's Lad, who is rated 96. He's won two races, like Outgate, and he's won about £16,000. This time next year, if Outgate doesn't progress, how much prize-money will he win?

"I think I saw that every race for him in Hong Kong is worth £85,000 and the next little grade up is £106,000 – every week. Then it's more if he can compete at a higher level, that's the trouble."

The Sarsen Farm operation enjoyed a personal-best campaign last term and its string of 40 provide a fine chance of bettering it in 2022 even if the flagbearer has no further part to play.

"We'd like to have got some black type with him for the mare [Penny Drops] and that would be the main incentive to keep a horse like him for the breeder," said Kubler. "But Hong Kong will buy a horse only up until it has had a certain amount of runs – they want longevity.

"There are offers and decisions to be made and, even if he won a Listed race on his next start, the offers might not exist because they don't want a horse who has run ten times. It's a complete dilemma.

"If he's rated in the high 90s at the end of his four-year-old career he might be worth £50,000 to £100,000, but there was an offer after he won at Chester for the first time for £350,000 and it's significantly more now."

Watch Outgate win at Chester this month

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The Front Runner is our latest email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, a four-time Racing Reporter of the Year award winner, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday