2022 King George: who wins the big race at Kempton based on previous trends?

Britain's festive spectacular, the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (2.30), is one of the highlights of the year and is already shaping up to be a post-Christmas cracker on December 26. The King George has been won by some of jump racing's legends in the past, and we have taken a look at who could join that illustrious roll of honour based on previous trends.

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Ratings

King George winners tend to need to post a high Racing Post Racing to be victorious and half of those who have scored in the race in the last ten years have posted an RPR of 176 or higher.

The highest came when Cue Card narrowly denied Vautour in a thrilling finish in 2015, when he registered an RPR of 180, while dual winners Clan Des Obeaux and Silviniaco Conti both posted RPRs of 176 with their victories.

The lowest RPR of 168 came when Frodon shocked his rivals in 2020, while last year's surprise winner Tornado Flyer registered an RPR of 172.

The average-winning RPR over the last decade has been 174, and only Frodon has surpassed that rating in their career so far out of the nine left in the race.

Age

The King George has been won by eight-year-olds in half of its runnings in the last decade, with Silviniaco Conti (2014), Thistlecrack (2016), Might Bite (2017), Frodon (2020) and Tornado Flyer (2021) all obliging at that age.

Tornado Flyer: won the King George as an eight-year-old last yearCredit: Edward Whitaker

Silviniaco Conti won it as a seven-year-old in 2013, as did Long Run (2012) and Clan Des Obeaux (2019), who also is the youngest winner this decade when scoring as a six-year-old the year before. Cue Card is the oldest winner in the last decade, striking in 2015 at the age of nine.

The age stats bode well for leading players L'Homme Presse Bravemansgame and Envoi Allen, but not so for ten-year-old Frodon, with the great Kauto Star the last veteran to win the race in 2011.

Class

This is a race that already requires top-level form, with Clan Des Obeaux (2018) the only winner in the last ten years not to have previously been victorious at the top-level.

That bodes well for all in the field bar Hitman, Royale Pagaille and Eldorado Allen, who have yet to win a Grade 1. However, all the winners in the last decade have placed at the highest level too, which all three have done previously.

Odds

The King George has not been the kindest race for favourites recently, with Long Run (2012), Silviniaco Conti (2014), Thistlecrack (2016) and Might Bite (2017) obliging as market leaders.

Might Bite: 2017 winner the last King George favourite to obligeCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

However, towards the end of the decade the race has been ripe for a shock, with three of the last four winners being at double-figure prices including last year's winner Tornado Flyer, who was one of the outsiders at 28-1. Frodon scored the year previously at 20-1.

Trainer

No trainer has dominated the King George in the last ten years like Paul Nicholls, who has won five runnings with some of his stars. He will be triple-handed this year with leading hopes Bravemansgame and Hitman, as well as 2020 winner Frodon.

Colin Tizzard is the next joint-best on two and while he retired last year, his son Joe, who took over the licence, will saddle Eldorado Allen.

Only one Irish-trained horse has won the race in the last ten years, with Tornado Flyer in 2021 ending a 16-year wait since Kicking King's second success in the race in 2005. The Irish will be solely represented this year by Henry de Bromhead's Envoi Allen.

Verdict

There are plenty of leading chances who deserve great merit, but all the points stack towards Bravemansgame landing the prize this year. Already a top-level winner over course-and-distance, he fits in the ideal age category and represents the race's winningmost trainer Paul Nicholls, who seeks his 13th King George success.

Introducing the ITV Racing Christmas Festival

The ITV Racing Christmas Festival features six days of top-class action on the channel from 12 different tracks in Britain and Ireland between December 26 and January 1.

Some 41 live races will be shown in all, including eight Grade 1s such as the King George VI Chase, with the Welsh Grand National and Cheltenham's New Year's Day card among the big-race highlights across a spectacular six days of racing on terrestrial television across the festive period.

December 26
Kempton: King George VI Chase day
Wetherby: Rowland Meyrick Chase day

December 27
Chepstow: Welsh Grand National day
Kempton: Desert Orchid Chase day

December 28
Leopardstown: Savills Chase day
Leicester

December 29
Leopardstown: Matheson Hurdle day
Doncaster

December 31
Newbury, Warwick and Lingfield

January 1
Cheltenham, Musselburgh and Tramore

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Read these next:

Who is set for King George glory? Assessing the key players in a Kempton cracker

What's on this Christmas - a full rundown of the festive schedule

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