Richard Lowther's best bets for Saturday's South African racing
Amber Light
12.05 Turffontein
1pt win
Eskimo Kisses
1.15 Turffontein
2pts win
Silver De Lange
2.10 Durbanville
1pt win
Mistressofmyfate
3.35 Turffontein
1pt each-way
Turffontein
Turffontein in Johannesburg has two turf tracks, with the outer one being used on Saturday and for the majority of the better meetings. It's a right-handed track, 1m5f round, with a steady climb from a mile or so out until the home turn, which makes it the stiffest track in South Africa. The straight course is around 6f. Low numbers are definitely favoured over 7f, and slightly less so over 1m.
There are a couple of class acts in the feature races, both from the local stable of South Africa's leading trainer Sean Tarry. He's been struggling for winners recently but that should all change on Saturday.
Al Mutawakel isn't as good as his near namesake, who won the Dubai World Cup in 1999, but he was third in a Grade 1 here in November and the 1.50 looks his for the taking as the weights are very much in his favour. Much the same applies in the 2.25 to the filly Celtic Sea, who's a dual winner in the top grade. Both horses will be odds-on, but can be used to bulk up accumulators.
Afternoon Tea will be popular in the juvenile fillies' maiden (12.05), but she's been a beaten favourite on her last two starts and could be a value bet against her. Another from the Sean Tarry stable, Amber Light has been given a break since her debut in which she faded after travelling nicely. There was no confidence behind her in the market that day and better can be expected now.
The reliable Eskimo Kissesshould be rewarded for her consistency in the 1.15, a handicap over 6f. This filly finished second to Mademoiselle on each of her last two starts, going down by just half a length on the inner track here last month. Trainer Candice Dawson and rider Gavin Lerena enjoyed a 24.4 per cent strike-rate when combining last season and although they've not matched that this campaign, 45 per cent of their runners have placed.
The concluding 5f handicap (3.35) looks pretty open, but has improved with each start since a four-month break and her latest third behind a Grade 2-placed rival reads well. She's been tackling further than this but the drop in trip should be fine.
Durbanville
Durbanville in the Capetown suburbs is a left-handed track of nearly 1m2f, with a 4f run-in. The home straight runs downhill almost to the finish. It's a specialists' track which suits handy racers, and low numbers hold an advantage over all trips.
Best bet on the card could be Silver De Langein the 2.10, a 1m4f handicap. Successful on his only previous run over C&D, the top weight drops significantly in class after contesting a Grade 3 contest last time and he's been freshened up since. He made the frame in a Listed race on his penultimate start and can make his class tell here.
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