Star stayer can show all old spark at his ideal track

Native River
Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup
1pt each-way at 20-1

The Gold Cup picture has changed significantly over the festive period. Lostintranslation looked to have first-rate prospects after his Haydock win but blew out in the King George, while the Savills Chase at Leopardstown threw up more questions than answers.

As a result, last year's winner Al Boum Photo is as short as 7-2 to do something Kauto Star could not and win back-to-back Gold Cups. He has got a great chance, but history tells you how hard it is to win the race consecutively and I would imagine he will be a similar price on the day.

Stablemate Kemboy is next in the market and if he could dominate like he did at Aintree and Punchestown then he is definitely good enough to win. However, whether he will truly stay a strongly run 3m2½f at Cheltenham is open to debate.

Clan Des Obeaux looked better than ever at Kempton, but the race fell apart and I think he's a better horse going right-handed.

He's still young and may be a stronger horse this time around, so he is a plausible winner but he has yet to win from five attempts at Prestbury Park.

Usually one of last season's novices steps up to the plate and Delta Work, who scrambled home in the Savills Chase after an interrupted preparation, is one who can be fancied.

However, that form looks suspect and he is plenty short enough given he could only finish third in the RSA last year.

Santini looks a thorough stayer and had a horrendous preparation for Cheltenham last year, so he is another who could take a big step forward. He was laboured on his comeback run at Sandown, but the track may not have suited and he has only had four chase starts. However, he is also a short price on what he's achieved over fences.

Many are still hoping Presenting Percy can be the wonder horse he looked when winning the RSA in 2018. There has been a lot of water under the bridge since then, though, and he looks to be one of those horses who has a reputation that exceeds his form.

Monalee surely won't stay well enough to win a Gold Cup, so at this stage the only horse who looks overpriced on form is the 2018 winner Native River.

On soft ground he would have a big chance of regaining his crown and it is worth remembering he has never finished out of the first four over fences.

A ten-year-old hasn't won the race so far this century, but On His Own should have won in 2014 and Native River looked back to his best on his most recent start.

Native River was slowly away in last year's race and could never get into a rhythm so he did well to finish fourth and he raced more enthusiastically at Aintree last time.

Some will say the race fell apart after Might Bite's early departure, but that was Native River's second-best effort according to Racing Post Ratings, and beating the 160-rated Black Corton by 33 lengths was no mean feat.

He is a guaranteed stayer who saves his best for Cheltenham, and while one of the younger horses may have the legs on him, I'm not sure three will. As a result he makes plenty of each-way appeal at 20-1.

Cheltenham Gold Cup, card and betting

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