Who will win the 2024 Scottish Grand National based on previous trends?

The Scottish Grand National (3.35 Ayr, Saturday) is always a hugely competitive affair and Weekender tipster Alistair Jones takes a look at the trends as he looks to find the winner.

Weight

Stay Away Fay heads the weights off a handicap mark of 158 and that figure spells danger in capital letters.

This first-season chaser faces some task off 12st when only Grey Abbey has defied more than 11st 10lb since Red Rum in 1974. Howard Johnson’s 2004 winner progressed to a mark of 169 and it remains to be seen whether this year’s top weight has that potential.

The only other winner in the last 20 years to carry more than 11st 3lb was Vicente in 2017, in which the weights were unusually compressed. Fifteen winners during this period had 11st or less, while since 1982 no fewer than 13 were out of the handicap.

Novices

When Godsmejudge won in 2013 he became the eighth novice to do the business in 20 years.

Alan King’s contender beat a fellow novice in Big Occasion with another, Tour Des Champs, in fourth. This trend remains strong, with Vicente, Joe Farrell and Mighty Thunder all adding to their tally since 2016.

This naturally heightens interest in ante-post favourite Macdermott, who hails from the all-conquering stable of Willie Mullins.

He would become the first successful six-year-old since Earth Summit in 1994, yet he smacked of a sharp improver at Fairyhouse on only his fifth appearance over fences. That level of inexperience has been defied in the past.

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Form

Horses to have lost their form can struggle to rediscover it this late in the season and 11 of the last 14 winners finished in the top five last time out, and the majority would have contested competitive handicaps. Nine of those 11 were in the top three.

Aintree and Cheltenham form invariably enters the equation. Last week’s Grand National could be represented by Mr Invincible, who departed at The Chair.

A concern for him is that Vicente was the first winner to come out of the National since Little Polveir, who won in 1987 after also coming to grief at The Chair. The 2017 winner crashed out at the first fence.

Overall, the record of Aintree participants is poor. A total of 45 horses have run in both races this century, with only two placed at Ayr.

Beaten horses from Cheltenham fare better. Thirteen winners in the last four decades came up short at the festival, finishing 837P5875PP235.

Also bear in mind that no winner in the last dozen years had raced more than six times that season.

Tactics

This is one staying handicap in which it is difficult to win from off the pace.

The last three winners were held up in mid-division, but it usually pays to hold a handy position in the first half of the field. To last home after racing prominently takes an abundance of stamina, and the last 12 winners had all won races over at least 3m.

Verdict

Willie Mullins sets a headache with six runners and both Macdermott and Klarc Kent have plenty going for them.

However, first choice is fellow novice chaser Anglers Crag, who maintained his unbeaten record for the season in the Eider Chase that Win My Wings and Kitty’s Light landed en route to Scottish glory.

Anglers Crag15:35 Ayr

View Racecard

Jky: Henry Brooke Tnr: Brian Ellison

• 3.35 Ayr (Saturday, April 20): Coral Scottish Grand National racecard and betting

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Confirmed runners and riders for the 2024 Scottish Grand National at Ayr 

2024 Scottish Grand National tips and predictions: why this horse can win at Ayr 

2024 Scottish Grand National contenders: assessing the main players at Ayr on Saturday 

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