Who will win the 2024 Irish Grand National based on previous trends?

The Irish Grand National (5.00 Fairyhouse, Monday) is a hugely competitive betting heat, but it is also one of the strongest races for trends on the racing calendar. Weekender trends guru Alistair Jones takes an in-depth look at the famous race . . .

Weight is a killer

It is difficult to defy a big weight, with Bobbyjo (11st 3lb), Commanche Court (11-4), Our Duke (11-4) and I Am Maximus (11-1) the only winners above 11st since Flashing Steel defied top weight in 1995. One went on to win a Grand National and two others were of Gold Cup class.

Ante-post favourite Nick Rockett could have done with a classier top weight than Farouk D’Alene as, with the weights due a 6lb rise, the Willie Mullins-trained novice will now have to carry 11st 4lb.

It is better to be out of the handicap than towards the top with plenty of winners down the years coping with extra weight, although none were more than 7lb ‘wrong’. Only recently was the minimum weight lowered to 9st 10lb.

The influence of a low weight is naturally reflected on the winning ratings, though this is one trend on the move. For years it made sense to focus on horses rated beneath 140, and yet four of the last nine winners were above this.

Respect novices

Two years ago Noble Yeats became a rare successful novice in the Aintree National but inexperience doesn’t seem to matter a jot in this one.

Side with a runner on an upward curve. Eight of the last dozen winners were in single figures as regards chasing experience, with Rogue Angel (25), General Principle (13), Freewheelin Dylan (17) and Lord Lariat (13) going against the grain.

Novices have excelled, with last year’s winner I Am Maximus the 21st to oblige since 1974 and he was the seventh in 14 years.

However, would-be backers of the fancied Intense Raffles should bear in mind that only Burrows Saint and Organisedconfusion have won this as six-year-olds since Rhyme ’N’ Reason in 1985, with horses aged seven and eight preferred.

Force of the festival

There is never the same gap between Cheltenham and the Irish National. This year it is roughly two and a half weeks, yet it has been as high as a month and as low as ten days.

However, festival form does have a habit of popping up on the successful CV.

I Am Maximus, who had finished fourth in the 3m Grade 1 novice, was the 19th winner to have come via Cheltenham in the last 49 years, and the sixth in 18 years. Four of those contested the National Hunt Chase.

No matter where it took place, the prep race must be close. Freewheelin Dylan and Lord Lariat – both shock winners – were returning from absences of 173 days and 68 days respectively, but that’s not the norm. The only other recent winner to prevail following a lengthy break was Hear The Echo after 88 days away in 2008. Also take note that only two of the last 14 winners had won their prep.

Key pointer

I Am Maximus is the only winner in the last decade who had not previously won on a right-handed track.

Verdict

This is a strong trends race. It is paramount to side with a lightly raced improver who is not too high in the weights, and if still holding novice status then all the better.

Much depends on whether those at the top of the handicap stand their ground but no matter how many come out first-season chaser Hartur D’Arc should be fine weight-wise with only 10st 4lb as things stand.

Yeah Man and Senior Chief are others for the shortlist.