Who will win the 2024 Betfair Hurdle at Newbury based on previous trends?

Saturday's big betting race is the Betfair Hurdle (3.15 Newbury), but what does history tell us and how can we use recent trends to help us predict the valuable handicap winner?

Times have changed

Wind the clock back and the Betfair Hurdle was considered too stern an examination for novices, but not now.

The trend in vogue is that nine of the last 14 winners held novice status and the two Paul Nicholls-trained exceptions warrant a mention.

Zarkandar was a second-season hurdler having only his fourth run over hurdles, and Pic D'Orhy had only turned five and was having just his fourth run for the yard. Neither was remotely exposed. Young horses are the way to go.

The last two winners were seven-year-olds, but Glory And Fortune in 2022 was the first winner not aged five or six since the nine-year-old Geos in 2004. Geos remains the only winner older than seven since King Credo in 1993 and Nicky Henderson's gelding was a trends buster on many counts.

A lack of handicap experience has been no drawback given that eight of the last dozen winners were making their debuts in a race of this nature.

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Weight factor on the move

Since 1980, winners beneath 11st lead those above by 21 victories to 15. But the gap is narrowing with six of the last 11 over this threshold.

Historically, 11st 5lb is as high as you want to be when horses with more weight are 2-36 in the last 13 renewals and those include 11 at 10-1 or lower.

However, the two trends busters have come in the last five years (defying 11st 8lb) and, as is the case with many modern-day handicaps, class is beginning to count.

It's a damning statistic for those towards the very peak of the handicap that Persian War, Al Dancer and Glory And Fortune are the only winners above 11st 7lb. This is a sensible cut-off point and it counts against the top seven horses, including leading fancies Luccia, Lookaway and Under Control.

Trends are against topweights so Luccia might struggle off 12stCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Momentum is key

With this an early-closing race and 13 of the last 14 winners having finished in the top three the time before, it's common for winners to be ahead of the handicapper. Five of the 13 had won their previous race.

This is a cast-iron statistic and reiterates the point that horses heading to Newbury with either regressive profiles or out of form are opposable.

Verdict

The ex-French Ocastle Des Mottes has been a big mover in the market and yet it's unheard of to win this on the back of an absence, and Willie Mullins has sent out just one winner at Newbury from 42 runners.

Four of the last seven winners went on to contest the Supreme and three went off at 5-1 or shorter at the festival. Therefore, an entry for the festival opener bodes well and Tellherthename looked the bet for an in-form Ben Pauling before being taken out of the race on Friday. In his absence, Norman Fletcher could be a lively one at bigger odds.

Norman Fletcher15:15 Newbury

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Jky: Sam Twiston-Davies Tnr: Nigel Twiston-Davies

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Read these next:

2024 Betfair Hurdle at Newbury: the runners, the odds, the verdict 

Confirmed runners and riders for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday 

'He wouldn't have any problems if conditions became testing' - why this horse can win Saturday's Betfair Hurdle 

'I'm thinking, and hoping, he's not unbeatable' - Nicky Henderson on Shishkin's task against Galopin Des Champs in Gold Cup 

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