Paul Kealy's play of the day at Cheltenham

Springwell Bay

2.05 Cheltenham

Only nine go for the following Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (2.05), in which the hat-trick-seeking Gemirande is favourite to back up his December Gold Cup win from an 8lb higher mark.

His two wins this term have come on good and good to soft ground, though, and he's 0-6 on softer in Britain, so is going to need a career best under conditions that don't appear to suit as well, and surely that is a big ask.

I can easily see Springwell Bay and Colonel Harry ending up ahead of him in the market as neither has any problem with deep ground and both look reasonably well treated.

Springwell Bay has run well on all three starts in novice company, including twice at this track, and time will surely tell it was a fine effort in going down by six and a half lengths when conceding 8lb to Jango Baie here last month.

According to Racing Post Ratings, that effort was 5lb better than anything he achieved over hurdles, but he remains on his hurdles mark of 145, and there are surely races to be won with him off that sort of rating.

He has run at Cheltenham over hurdles and barely ever runs a bad race there, and he should probably be clear favourite.

The advantage he holds over main danger Colonel Harry is that course form, as Jamie Snowden's eight-year-old was never travelling when a well-beaten sixth on his only start at the course, albeit that did come in the Grade 1 Turners won by Grey Dawning.

His returning Carlisle second to Marble Sands was a perfectly respectable warm-up for the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury, and I wouldn't read too much into his heavy defeat there as he was a blatant non-stayer and was right in the firing line three out having gone well for a long way on the front end with Broadway Boy.

It's just that lack of course form that leans me towards Springwell Bay.

Springwell Bay14:05 Cheltenham

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Jky: Jonjo O'Neill Jr Tnr: Jonjo & A J O'Neill

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