Northumberland Plate outsiders: four horses available at 20-1 or bigger who look overpriced for Newcastle's highlight

Who will claim the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle on Saturday?

The Northumberland Plate (3.10) is the betting race of the day on Saturday and with plenty of bookmakers sure to be offering extra places, we've identified four outsiders who represent value in the market. . .

Evaluation

Odds: 20-1

Evaluation bounced back to somewhere near his best with victory at Wolverhampton in April on his second start for Lucinda Russell, and that effort can marked up given he did well to score from the rear in a tactical affair.

His Racing Post Rating of 95 achieved for that last-time-out victory was the third-best of his career and the highest since he was forced to miss nearly the whole of 2023, so he couldn't arrive in much better form.

Evaluation: represents Lucinda Russell in Saturday's Northumberland PlateCredit: John Grossick

He was sent off favourite to shoulder 10st in the Northumberland Vase two years ago and was a very respectable fourth, finishing first of those who tried to make their moves on the unfavoured side of the course.

On the strength of his form when with Keith Dalgleish, this mark of 88 should not be beyond him, especially with a lot less weight off of his back than he is used to.

Evaluation15:10 Newcastle (A.W)

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Jky: Tnr: Lucinda Russell

Zealandia

Odds: 25-1

Zealandia was not able to land a telling blow on his first start for 97 days in the Chester Plate last time, but his form on the all-weather earlier in the year suggests he could still have some scope of this mark.

He was having his first start on an artificial surface in Britain when finishing a close third at Wolverhampton behind Prydwen, who has done wonders for the form having gone up 14lb in the handicap after two subsequent wins, and was not disgraced over a shorter trip at Southwell next time.

Zealandia followed that by winning over course-and-distance from Enemy, who then took the Winter Derby Trial before running a stormer to finish second in the Red Sea Turf handicap in Riyadh to give that form plenty of substance, and is just 3lb higher here.

The switch to Polytrack can be taken as an excuse for a poor showing at Kempton in February and a much better showing can be expected returned to Tapeta.

Zealandia15:10 Newcastle (A.W)

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Jky: Tnr: Ian Williams

Too Friendly

Odds: 33-1

Too Friendly is probably better known for his exploits over hurdles, but James Owen does well with his dual-purpose types and this one looks capable of more on the Flat.

He travelled very strongly and stayed the trip well when scoring with a bit in hand in a 2m handicap at Kempton in March and has since followed up with three solid efforts on turf, notably going down by just a head in a first-time hood at Newmarket in May.

Too Friendly: 33-1 for the Northumberland PlateCredit: Alan Crowhurst

He ran with no headgear on for the first time on the Flat since joining Owen last time and recorded a career-best RPR. Given that was over a trip too short, there can be plenty of hope there is still improvement to come back up in distance and on the all-weather again, on which he has form figures of 321.

Too Friendly15:10 Newcastle (A.W)

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Jky: Tnr: James Owen

Golden Flame

Odds: 50-1

The Faulkner yard worked wonders to get last year's runner-up Golden Rules to win first time up after a long layoff, before finishing second in this a year ago, and I wouldn't rule them out doing the same with Golden Flame.

Formerly trained by Mark Johnston and then in partnership with his son Charlie, the six-year-old has plenty of standout pieces of form that can make him a contender here, notably finishing a length behind subsequent Queen's Cup winner Wise Eagle, who is now rated 103, off level weights.

He's won on the all-weather, having got the better of the now 156-rated hurdler Pied Piper at Chelmsford three years ago, and although he has to overcome a 612-day layoff, his yard got a new recruit to win on their first start in 638 days last year.

A mark of 87 sees him 3lb below his last winning mark and it would be no surprise to see him outrun massive odds of 50-1.