Newmarket July Cup tips: why this horse can win the big Group 1 on Saturday

Newmarket's July festival reaches a booming crescendo on Saturday with the day's feature race, the July Cup (4.35). Rossa Ryan takes the ride on market leader Shaquille with nine set to go to post, including Aidan O'Brien's Little Big Bear. Here, our experts give their view on who they think is the likeliest to secure July Cup glory.

4.35 Newmarket, Saturday: July Cup racecard and betting

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Kinross

Forecast odds: 9-2

By Scott Burton

Without at least some give in the ground you would be hard pressed to argue Kinross is as effective over six furlongs as he is at seven, yet he ran much better on his seasonal reappearance in the QEII Jubilee Stakes than his finishing position suggests.

After travelling beautifully for three-quarters of the race, his lack of a previous run began to tell just at the point when Ascot's stiff finish ought to have played to his strengths. With the doubt around how good the current British crop of three-year-old colts is – Shaquille surely shouldn't have been able to make up his ground in the Commonwealth Cup against top-notchers – this might be a golden opportunity for Ralph Beckett and owner Marc Chan to snare a second Group 1 at this trip.

Kinross16:35 Newmarket (July)

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Jky: William Buick Tnr: Ralph Beckett

By Matt Gardner

Shaquille’s remarkable Commonwealth Cup win was one of the talking points of Royal Ascot but the bare form of that is questionable and, in Kinross, he meets a really solid sprinter who is likely to be spot on for this following a promising reappearance in the QEII Jubilee Stakes. 

Kinross won a pair of Group 1s on ground softer than good last year but is versatile with regard to conditions, running almost as well when third in the Breeders' Cup Mile on much firmer ground, and his style ought to be well suited to this track.

Kinross16:35 Newmarket (July)

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Jky: William Buick Tnr: Ralph Beckett

By Liam Headd

The majority of success for Kinross has come over seven furlongs, but that's not to say he can't be considered a serious contender at Newmarket on Saturday. The six-year-old recorded a career-best effort on Racing Post Ratings when taking the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp last October and quickly followed up in the Champions Sprint at Ascot over six furlongs. 

He may step up in trip after this race, having gone close when third to Modern Games in the Breeders' Cup Mile, but this is a good opportunity for him to build on his QEII Jubilee seventh, when he ran well on ground not best suited to him before dropping off late on. If we get a bit more rain between now and the race, and the ground turns slightly soft, this could be his moment again.

Kinross16:35 Newmarket (July)

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Jky: William Buick Tnr: Ralph Beckett

Little Big Bear

Forecast odds: 9-2

By Jonathan Pearson

On what we have seen so far this season Shaquille is a deserving favourite. However, I believe Little Big Bear will reverse the form of the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and win the race. He was a good winner at Haydock in the Sandy Lane Stakes, as well as being last year’s top juvenile. The way the race at Ascot panned out suited Shaquille better, having been held up with Little Big Bear running on the front end with very little cover. 

The six furlongs over the July course is not as stiff as the same trip at Ascot which is also likely to play to the strengths of the Aidan O’Brian-trained colt.

Little Big Bear16:35 Newmarket (July)

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Jky: Ryan Moore Tnr: A P O'Brien

Shaquille

Forecast odds: 15-8 

By Jack Haynes

The required Racing Post Rating to win this race eliminates many of the entries if you judge the race on recent trends, and with Kinross looking to face a stiff task given his age, preference is for Shaquille.

He defied a notably slow start to post a career-best victory at Royal Ascot and three of the last ten July Cup winners came from the Commonwealth Cup.

Shaquille16:35 Newmarket (July)

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Jky: Rossa Ryan Tnr: Julie Camacho

Azure Blue

Forecast odds: 3-1

By Charlie Huggins

Course-and-distance winner Azure Blue is an improving filly who was impressive when beating Highfield Princess in the Duke of York last time. Starman took that Group 2 on the Knavesmire before winning this two years ago and I like the fact that Michael Dods has kept his four-year-old fresh.

Limato won this off the back of a 56-day break as a four-year-old in 2016 and the last three winners have also been four.

Azure Blue16:35 Newmarket (July)

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Jky: Paul Mulrennan Tnr: Michael Dods

By Joe Eccles

Kinross is entitled to take a step forward from his QEII Jubilee Stakes seventh, but unless we receive significant rainfall between now and Saturday this looks set to be fought out between Shaquille and Azure Blue.

Slight preference goes to the latter, who arrives on a significant upward curve and looked every inch a future Group 1 winner when landing the Duke of York Stakes last time out.

Azure Blue16:35 Newmarket (July)

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Jky: Paul Mulrennan Tnr: Michael Dods

Read these next:

Confirmed runners and riders for the July Cup at Newmarket on Saturday - plus a tip and free bet 

2023 July Cup at Newmarket: assessing the top contenders for Saturday's big race 

Sharpen up for Royal Ascot and get 50% off Racing Post Members' Club 

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