'Everything is in his favour this time' - David Jennings tries to follow up a 7-2 nap on the most manic day of the year
What's the big story?
Seventy-seven races wrapped into one glorious box. Yes, from the 11.40am at Down Royal to the 5.40pm at Wolverhampton, there are 76 races to enjoy. Welcome to the most manic day of the year.
The traditional feature is the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (2.30) at Kempton, which is wide open, but the real showpiece is the spine-tingling showdown between Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth in the Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (1.55). Now, that's a proper humdinger. It's like asking Santa for a book and getting a BMW.
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So, who wins the King George VI Chase (3.05)?
God only knows, and even he (or she) is struggling to figure this one out.
If my arm were twisted, Grey Dawning is probably the one I would side with at 5-1. He definitely shouldn't be any bigger than that. L'Homme Presse is dangerous, too, as is Corbetts Cross. Spillane's Tower is unexposed and could be anything and Il Est Francais could do anything. Banbridge could win it, couldn't he? Bravemansgame is a big price at 20-1 and how is Envoi Allen 14-1? I haven't a clue, basically. Stick a pin in it and hope it doesn't land on General En Chef.
Constitution Hill v Lossiemouth - who wins?
This is probably a question for a vet rather than a tipster. It all boils down to whether we will see a happy and healthy Constitution Hill. If we do, he wins and you are getting 5-4 about a horse who is every bit as talented as Istabraq beating a mare who is rated 15lb inferior to him.
Yes, he has to concede 7lb and Lossiemouth has a run under her belt, but this is Constitution Hill, for goodness sake. This is the greatest hurdler of the modern era. How can you back against him knowing he is unbeatable when on song? That's sacrilege.
What's the bet of the day?
That’s Doddiethegreat in the concluding 2m5f handicap hurdle (3.40) at Kempton. Nicky Henderson won the very same race in 2020 and 2021 and I'll be disappointed if he doesn't win it again with this lightly raced and thoroughly unexposed eight-year-old who has a mark that surely underestimates his raw ability.
Recent form figures of 075 can be easily explained, and he returns to the scene of his 22-length course-and-distance novice hurdle victory in 2021, when he posted a Racing Post Rating of 137.
It's as simple as this: everything is in his favour this time, and if a mark of 129 is the ceiling of his ability I've got this horse completely wrong. I think he's got about a stone up his sleeve.
And, the lay of the day?
Sorry, Harry, but it's The Jukebox Man in the Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices' Chase (1.20) at Kempton. He was spectacular at Newbury, but should Masaccio really be almost five times the price of him? I think there won't be much between them this time, and have a sneaky suspicion Alan King's grey might get his revenge around here.
Anything catch the eye in Ireland?
At Leopardstown, Better Days Ahead in the Grade 1 Racing Post Long Distance Novice Chase (2.20) and One Last Tango in the 2m1f handicap chase (2.55), while Banprionsa is very interesting in the 2m4½f beginners' chase (1.23) at Down Royal.
Read these next:
2024 King George VI Chase runners, tips and ratings: David Jennings' pinstickers guide
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