Epsom Placepot tips: Paul Kealy's perm for the £250,000 guaranteed Derby day pool

With a due nod to Persica's fourth in the London Gold Cup, I'm still surprised Portsmouth is not a warm favourite for Epsom's opener (1.25), a race his trainer Andrew Balding has won three times in the last six years.

He gagged up here at the April meeting and should not be knocked for his failure by a length to give 4lb to Lavender Hill Mob at Goodwood last time as the winner is now 20lb higher. Portsmouth is up just 3lb, and looks banker material for Placepotters.

I originally wanted to take on Running Lion with Sparks Fly in the second (2.00), but would be less confident given the ground conditions so I'm playing it safe and putting both in.

The third (2.35) is desperately hard for a Group race, but last year's winner Regal Reality is back and can be relied upon to run his race. Epictetus is less dependable, but kick out all his heavy defeats at Ascot and he has a far more solid profile, and he is a course winner.

It gets really difficult after that, with two 5f sprints, and in the first (3.10) I'll definitely be going for some cover.

Billy Webster and Mashadi are the two I've backed, but I'll be adding Blue Storm, who has run very well for Gemma Tutty on his last two starts, and Irish raider Sturlasson, who clearly has a ton of pace.

I think there will be a big class angle with the Dash (3.45) and I won't be looking past Middleham Park pair Clarendon House, who showed Group-race capabilities last time, and Silky Wilkie, who is very well handicapped now.

It will be three in a tricky Derby (4.30). Ambiente Friendly and Macduff are the two I like best from a betting angle, and while the workmanlike Los Angeles would be a very dull winner, he is going to stay and should improve for the distance.

Epsom Placepot perm

1.25
8 Portsmouth

2.00
5 Running Lion
7 Sparks Fly

2.35
3 Epictetus
4 Regal Reality

3.10
2 Billy Webster
4 Sturlasson
6 Blue Storm
8 Mashadi

3.45
1 Clarendon House
3 Silky Wilkie

4.30
1 Ambiente Friendly
11 Los Angeles
12 Macduff

1x2x2x4x2x3=96 lines

World Pool tip

Global players in the World Pool are even more likely than domestic punters to play on recognisable names, which to them means Aidan O'Brien, Charlie Appleby, Ryan Moore and similar. They are also more likely to play in the Swinger market. That is where you should be looking if you fancy anything in the Derby outside of City Of Troy, Los Angeles and Ancient Wisdom.

Personally, I fancy Ambiente Friendly. Although I also concede that he is not the greatest Swinger selection, as the part which could go wrong is him pulling his chance away. He will pay well in the win pool, but my Swinger will centre on Dancing Gemini and Macduff. The former showed his class in the French Guineas and he is bred to stay, while Macduff looks just the sort of slow-burner to deliver at Epsom. If they both make the first three, in any shape or form, you will get a nice return in the World Pool.

Recommended bet
4.30 Epsom

6 Dancing Gemini
12 Macduff
1pt ToteSwinger

Keith Melrose

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