2024 Epsom Derby: the runners, the odds, the verdict
The Betfred Derby (4.30 Epsom, Saturday) takes centre stage today. The premier Classic for three-year-old colts, one of the jewels in the crown of British Flat racing, is watched by millions worldwide and will be shown live on ITV and Racing TV, but who will come out on top in this year's Epsom showpiece? Here's our big-race assessment in our comprehensive runner-by-runner guide to the Derby.
The verdict for the 2024 Betfred Derby and 1-2-3 prediction
By Emily Weber, Spotlight tipster
1. Los Angeles
2. Ambiente Friendly
3. Bellum Justum
Last year's Derby winner Auguste Rodin has lurched from one extreme to the other since his juvenile career and last year's champion juvenile City Of Troy followed in his footsteps by running like an outsider in the 2,000 Guineas. Aidan O'Brien has been relaxed about the letdown but there is no rush for the average punter to get involved and stablemate LOS ANGELES can prove superior to the favoured child. While his wins have lacked the star quality of City Of Troy at his best, the unbeaten selection has done no more than strictly necessary over shorter trips and looks sure to come further into his own now upped to 1m4f. Ancient Wisdom is another who will welcome this stamina test but it can't be too soft for him and a drying end to the week would not be an advantage. In contrast, the Lingfield Derby Trial winner Ambiente Friendly could have done with several dry days but he is nevertheless respected following that cracking effort. Andrew Balding's runners are always worth a look in this race and the uncomplicated Bellum Justum could have a good run in him, along with Macduff, who makes some appeal as a possible improver, but Dancing Gemini, up a half-mile in trip after his French Guineas second, has more to prove on the stamina front.
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2024 Betfred Derby: forecast betting odds for today's big race
- City Of Troy – 3-1f
- Los Angeles – 9-2
- Ambiente Friendly – 6-1
- Ancient Wisdom – 13-2
- Dancing Gemini – 10-1
- Macduff – 12-1
- Deira Mile – 18-1
- Bellum Justum – 20-1
- Euphoric – 20-1
- Voyage – 20-1
- Dallas Star – 33-1
- God's Window – 50-1
- Kamboo – 50-1
- Sayedaty Sadaty – 50-1
- Tabletalk – 100-1
- Mr Hampstead – 150-1
2024 Betfred Derby runners and odds: the full list of declared horses for Epsom
1 Ambiente Friendly
Trainer: James Fanshawe
Jockey: Robert Havlin
Draw: 6
Forecast odds: 6-1
Spotlight comment: Winning debut on good to soft; no match for Ancient Wisdom in a Newmarket Group 3 (1m, soft) next time and he made just a respectable reappearance in a 1m1f Listed race there in April; little in his pedigree to suggest he needed a longer trip but despite having an early tug of war with his rider in the Lingfield Derby Trial (11.6f, good; first time without a hood) he swept away to win in fine style and in a quick time; this unusual track shouldn't be a problem but he wouldn't want to waste energy early in this better race and good ground may be important to him.
2 Ancient Wisdom
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick
Draw: 11
Forecast odds: 13-2
Spotlight comment: Stoutly bred and from a fine family; the winner of four of six starts and in his element with testing conditions, as when a grinding winner of the Group 1 Futurity at Doncaster (1m) in October, when God's Window, Deira Mile and Dancing Gemini were third, fourth and fifth; lacked finishing pace when a remote runner-up in the Group 2 Dante at York (about 1m2f, good) on his first run back and this extra distance will suit, but a more galloping track than this could have been a better option (the Irish Derby was originally the plan) and considerable rain would be ideal.
3 Bellum Justum
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Draw: 12
Forecast odds: 20-1
Spotlight comment: From family of multiple Group 1 middle-distance winners Warrsan (including two Coronation Cups) and Luso; an unassuming two-year-old by Classic standards, ending with a 1m maiden win at Newmarket, but he reappeared with a workmanlike success in the Listed Blue Riband Trial here (1m2f, good) and this straightforward three-year-old can improve for a greater stamina test; four of the yard's last six Derby runners have finished in the frame, three at 50-1 or bigger.
4 City Of Troy
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Draw: 1
Forecast odds: 3-1f
Spotlight comment: Out of a Group 1 winner whose sister won the Oaks; Europe's champion juvenile, having swanned away in a Group 2 at Newmarket (7f, good to soft) on second start and it wasn't any harder work in the Group 1 Dewhurst on the Rowley Mile (soft) next time; therefore it was desperately disappointing to see such a tame reappearance in the 2,000 Guineas (1m, good), when a remote ninth of 11, and while his trainer has been philosophical since, the average punter will feel safer on the fence for now.
5 Dallas Star
Trainer: Adrian Murray
Jockey: David Egan
Draw: 7
Forecast odds: 33-1
Spotlight comment: Sole success in five two-year-old starts for previous yard came in a 1m Bath novice but he returned a new horse for the winter break when a 50-1 winner of a Group 3 at Leopardstown (1m2f, heavy) for this stable in April; that looked a slog for all the runners but this one handled the conditions well and he might be dependent on testing ground; has work to do.
6 Dancing Gemini
Trainer: Roger Teal
Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle
Draw: 15
Forecast odds: 10-1
Spotlight comment: Sire and damsire were both Derby winners but sharp speed has been more in evidence than staying potential so far, coming clear in 7f Listed race (soft) for a second two-year-old win before his pace was blunted over 1m on heavy behind Ancient Wisdom in Group 1 Futurity; highly promising return when a strong-finishing runner-up in the French 2,000 Guineas (soft) in May but, while he won't lack for tactical pace, connections have reservations about stamina for 1m4f and others do seem more likely prospects up 4f in trip.
7 Deira Mile
Trainer: Owen Burrows
Jockey: Jim Crowley
Draw: 7
Forecast odds: 18-1
Spotlight comment: Winless as a two-year-old but he didn't lack for heart when a persevering fourth of seven to Ancient Wisdom in the Group 1 Futurity (1m, heavy) on first run for yard in October and the switch in surface to good ground made no difference when winning a minor 1m2f Windsor novice on reappearance; should improve as a three-year-old but probably not quickly enough to play a part this time; first-time cheekpieces fitted.
8 Euphoric
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Jockey: Declan McDonogh
Draw: 9
Forecast odds: 20-1
Spotlight comment: Well-connected Frankel colt; just scraped home in a 1m maiden at Navan (yielding) on debut in October but he took a step forward on his second start this year, when doing the donkey work for Los Angeles in a Group 3 at Leopardstown (1m2f, good to soft) but unable to do much about that one's powerful finish; a likely pacemaker again.
9 God's Window
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Jockey: Kieran Shoemark
Draw: 10
Forecast odds: 50-1
Spotlight comment: Slowly away but he played a late hand into a two-length third to Ancient Wisdom in the Group 1 Futurity at Doncaster (1m, heavy) on final two-year-old start; successful reappearance in a 1m Nottingham novice but he hasn't advanced his Derby claims since with his defeats in trials at Chester and York.
10 Kamboo
Trainer: Richard Hughes
Jockey: Richard Kingscote
Draw: 3
Forecast odds: 50-1
Spotlight comment: Dam unraced sister to strong stayer Mahler; first saw the track in November and looked a smart prospect on second start the following month, when making most in 1m Kempton all-weather novice; off since and the bar is sky-high here.
11 Los Angeles
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Jockey: Wayne Lordan
Draw: 4
Forecast odds: 9-2
Spotlight comment: By Derby winner Camelot and his family includes illustrious names such as Arc winner and superstar broodmare Urban Sea and 2,000 Guineas winner King's Best; an oversized two-year-old who was said to be idle at home but was unbeaten in two starts, latterly in a Group 1 at Saint-Cloud (1m2f, very soft); had no problem with the switch to good ground when again looking better the further he went in a Group 3 at Leopardstown (1m2f) in May and the extra two furlongs can play strongly in his favour; leading candidate whatever the weather does.
12 Macduff
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Draw: 8
Forecast odds: 12-1
Spotlight comment: By Derby winner Sea The Stars out of half-sister to top-class miler/sire Kingman; ran with credit in Listed/Group company following a winning 7f debut in a Newmarket maiden but connections were always going to play the long game and he should benefit from a useful comeback behind the one-time Derby favourite in Group 3 Classic Trial at Sandown (1m2f, good to soft); looks the type who could come on a good deal this year and a big show is on the cards.
13 Mr Hampstead
Trainer: Dominic Ffrench Davis
Jockey: Sean Levey
Draw: 5
Forecast odds: 150-1
Spotlight comment: Smart middle-distance pedigree, out of an American Oaks winner who bred an Irish Oaks winner; maiden after three starts, looking ready for a step up in trip when beaten over two lengths by Voyage at Newbury (1m2f, good to soft) in April but not improving for 1m4f when third in a Chester maiden 22 days ago on final start for Roger Varian; right up against it.
14 Sayedaty Sadaty
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Jockey: Tom Marquand
Draw: 2
Forecast odds: 50-1
Spotlight comment: His two-year-old season was chaotic at times, including when winning a 1m all-weather novice, but there was no sign of awkwardness here on final juvenile start, nor when bearing up well in a tight finish for 1m Listed all-weather race on return; made most of the running and kept on steadily in a 1m2f Listed race at Newmarket (good) since and this step up in trip should suit on pedigree; needs much more but yard's outsiders have proved well worth a look in this race.
15 Tabletalk
Trainer: Tom Clover
Jockey: James Doyle
Draw: 13
Forecast odds: 100-1
Spotlight comment: Exceeded market expectations when third of 13 in 1m Kempton all-weather novice on sole two-year-old start and he didn't have to produce anything special, although making light of the task, to win over 1m2f on the Chelmsford all-weather last month; bred to appreciate another step up in trip but this is a very tough call.
16 Voyage
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Jockey: Pat Dobbs
Draw: 16
Forecast odds: 20-1
Spotlight comment: By Derby winner Golden Horn; siblings include Listed winners at 1m2f and 1m3f in Italy, also a 1m4f stakes race in US; a 28-1 shot for belated debut at Newbury (1m2f, good to soft) in April when he wanted to go as fast as possible early but still proved much the best horse in the race; has potential but could hardly be taking a bigger jump in class.
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Read this next:
2024 Betfred Derby runners, tips and ratings: David Jennings' pinstickers' guide
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