Steve Palmer's Italian Open predictions & golf betting tips

When to bet on the Italian Open

By 6am on Thursday

Where can I watch the Italian Open

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 12pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Italian Open predictions

Tom McKibbin
4pts each-way 16-1 general

Laurie Canter
2pts each-way 22-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Betfair are offering £50 in free bets when you bet on sport. You can grab your free bets here. 

Steve Palmer's Italian Open preview

Patrick Reed is chasing world-ranking points in this week's Italian Open but the former Masters champion may struggle to justify favouritism at Adriatic Golf Club Cervia.

Reed and the rest of the LIV Golf players do not get any world-ranking points on their regular circuit so missions like this are important for status and access to more prestigious events. The fiery Texan, though, may not be playing well enough to justify his short odds in Italy.

Bernd Wiesberger is more difficult to dismiss. The eight-time DP World Tour champion has been in typically solid ball-striking form. The Austrian has been enduring nightmares on the greens, though, and may not hole enough putts to claim this title for a second time.

Guido Migliozzi is looking to follow up his KLM Open victory with further success in his home country. Migliozzi and Matteo Manassero will be the main hopes of the local galleries but neither appears to represent great value.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Tom McKibbin 16-1

Northern Irish 21-year-old Tom McKibbin is already one of the best players on the DP World Tour – arguably the best of the regulars on this circuit – and this rising star should go close to Italian Open glory on Sunday.

McKibbin made an excellent Major debut earlier this month. He qualified for the US Open through finishing sixth in the Walton Heath 36-hole qualifier, then tied 41st at the tournament, where he enjoyed a Sunday twoball with Scottie Scheffler and they both carded a 72.

Fresh from his confidence-boosting Pinehurst adventure, McKibbin teed up in the KLM Open last week and finished sixth, closing with a 65. Nobody outscored the youngster in the KLM on Sunday and he looks a surefire contender for Italy.

McKibbin has played in 12 tournaments this year and he has finished in the top 25 in ten of them. One of the two in which he failed to register a top 25 was when he teed up in the Singapore Classic with tonsillitis. The other was in elite company at the US Open and he seems an enormous runner in this week's lowly grade.

McKibbin won his maiden DPWT title in the European Open last June and his second triumph could be coming in the same month. He should be a PGA Tour player next season.

Next best bet

Laurie Canter 22-1

Bath man Laurie Canter landed a long overdue maiden DP World Tour title at the start of this month, winning the European Open by two shots, and the floodgates may open for him with the monkey removed from his back.

Canter finished second four times on the DPWT before getting off the mark. One of those near-misses came in high-class company in the 2021 BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, while another was in the 2020 Italian Open.

Canter came so close to winning this event in Brescia four years ago, getting pipped by Ross McGowan. Given how much confidence Canter has gained since – not just through his victory, but due to banking a fortune teeing up in a total of 20 LIV events.

McKibbin and Canter look set to take plenty of three-woods off the tee this week – as well as a few long-irons – as both are plenty long enough to be able to club down along the numerous tree-lined fairways of Adriatic GC. Both have been swinging well and should take a shine to this fresh assignment.

Course guide for the Italian Open

• Course Adriatic Golf Club Cervia, Milano Marittima, Ravenna, Italy
• Prize money $3.25m ($541,775 to the winner)
• Length 6,965 yards
• Par 70 – two par-fives; 12 par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Patrick Reed (102), Rikuya Hoshino (103), Jordan Smith (104), Jesper Svensson (110), Laurie Canter (115)
• Course records - 72 holes 267 Greg Turner (1993) 18 holes 64 Frank Nobilo, Stephen Bennett, Jose Coceres, Eduardo Romero, Seve Ballesteros, Greg Turner
• When to bet By 6am on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 12pm on Thursday
• Time difference Italy is one hour ahead of the UK and Ireland
• Last week – KLM Open 1 G Migliozzi (35-1), T2 J Dean (200-1), M Kinhult (225-1), T4 R Hojgaard (16-1), A Pavan (150-1), 6 T McKibbin (16-1), T7 T Aiken (200-1), M Manassero (75-1), B Wiesberger (18-1)
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview The tournament moves to Adriatic GC this week, having spent three years at Marco Simone GC in Rome. Adriatic has not been used since Greg Turner won the 1993 Italian Open there. Much of the course runs through a pine forest, some is more exposed, while there are numerous water hazards waiting to punish the errant
• Story of last year Adrian Meronk edged Romain Langasque by a shot at Marco Simone – the third of his four DP World Tour titles
• Weather forecast Pre-tournament thunderstorms look set to be followed by sunny, warm, calm conditions, temperatures peaking at 30C
• Type of player suited to the challenge Rounds of 65, 70, 68 and 64 saw accurate Kiwi Greg Turner victorious in 1993, with equally tidy operators like Jose Coceres, David Gilford and Barry Lane just behind. Precision appears the key to Adriatic success
• Key attribute Accuracy

Steve Palmer's Italian Open key stat

Four of the last six Italian Open winners finished 50th or worse in their preceding event.

Grab £50 in Betfair free bets when you bet on sport

We’ve already mentioned that Betfair are offering £50 in free bets when you bet £10 on sport.

Here is how you can claim this £50 Betfair multiples offer when you place a qualifying bet.

• Head over to Betfair through this link to sign up using promo code ZSKAOG.
• Place a min £10 bet on Sportsbook on odds of min of EVS (2.0).
• Get £50 in Free Bet Builders, Accumulators or multiples to use on any sport.

Betfair betting sign-up offer: terms and conditions

It's worth taking a few minutes to read through the terms and conditions associated with the new player promotion before signing up. Doing so will help you get a better grasp of the details of this Betfair betting offer and what's expected of you as a new player. This promotion gives you £50 in free sports bets. T&Cs apply, including the following:

• All rewards are valid for 30 days after they have been awarded.
• Unmatched, unsettled or voided bets will not count towards this promotion.
• Excludes 'same market' bets placed on the Betfair Sportsbook.
• Free bet stakes are not returned with winnings.
• Bets placed using free bets as the stake (in full or in part) will not qualify.
• You'll be able to see details of your free bets in the ‘My Bonuses’ tab which can be accessed at the top of the website.
• If Betfair find that you have taken part in this promotion using a duplicate account or that you have used more than one account to participate, they reserve the right to withhold your free bets and any winnings earned on the duplicate account.
• Cashed Out or Partially Cashed out bets are excluded from the promotion.
• The offer excludes the following bet types: Canadian, Goliath, Heinz, Lucky 15, Lucky 31, Lucky 63, Patent, Super Heinz, Trixie & Yankee.
• To complete Phone Verification you must have a device capable of receiving an SMS.
• Visit Betfair for further T&Cs
• 18+. For more info visit www.begambleaware.org

Click for free bets and betting offers from the Racing Post

Commercial notice: This article contains affiliate links. Offers are handpicked and come from operators our experts have first-hand experience of. Opening an account via one of these links will earn revenue for the Racing Post, which will be used to continue producing our award-winning coverage of horseracing and sports betting.