Steve Palmer's free Irish Open predictions & golf betting tips: our top tipster bids to follow up last week's 18-1 winner

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When to bet on the Irish Open

By 7.30am on Thursday

William Hill are offering new customers £60 in betting bonuses when they bet £10 on the Irish Open. You can grab your free bets here. 

We’ve included instructions on how to grab your offer later on in this article.

Where can I watch the Irish Open

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 12.30pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Irish Open predictions

Shane Lowry
4pts each-way 12-1 Betfair, Power

Bernd Wiesberger
3pts each-way 30-1 Betfair, Power

Julien Guerrier
1.5pts each-way 100-1 Betfair, Power

Matthew Baldwin
1pt each-way 200-1 bet365

Grant Forrest
0.5pt each-way 275-1 Betfair, Power

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Steve Palmer's Irish Open preview

Rory McIlroy will take centre stage in the Irish Open just 11 days after the conclusion of the PGA Tour season and his appetite for competition at Royal County Down must be open to question.

Since squandering a golden chance to end his Major-winning drought in the US Open in June, McIlroy's mood has been understandably fragile on the golf course. A tough links this week in cold, breezy conditions will require focus and discipline from the off.

McIlroy, who was watching US Open tennis in New York last Friday, may not be carrying the determination to justify favouritism at Royal County Down. He missed the cut by four shots at this venue in 2015.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Shane Lowry 12-1

Strong preference at the prices is for Shane Lowry over his good pal McIlroy. Lowry is arguably the superior links golfer, he can handle the intense atmosphere of this event, and he is probably more hungry for the trophy.

Lowry won the Irish Open in 2009 when he was still an amateur. That was his first appearance in a DP World Tour event and it was a remarkable achievement. The triumph came at the County Louth Links, showcasing his comfort on this type of terrain, and he has gone on to emphatically prove himself a links master.

The greatest moment of Lowry's career came with victory in the 2019 Open Championship at Royal Portrush. That six-shot success in Northern Ireland may be followed by a similarly glorious Sunday this week.

Lowry led for a long way in the last Open – at Royal Troon in July – before eventually finishing sixth. Nobody in this week's field seems better equipped to handle a difficult links layout. Given how well he has been playing, he should improve significantly on the 43rd place he managed at County Down in 2015.

This year was the first time Lowry qualified for the Tour Championship, highlighting the consistency of his 2024 campaign. He was the eighth-best scorer at East Lake, finishing ninth in the FedEx Cup. He has had six top-tens this year, as well as winning the Zurich Classic PGA Tour pairs event alongside McIlroy in April.

Silverware as an individual has been the only missing element of Lowry's year. The popular Irishman can put that right in County Down.

Next best bet

Bernd Wiesberger 30-1

Austrian ace Bernd Wiesberger delivered another solid DP World Tour shift last week, recording his 12th top-25 finish of the year. Six of his last eight tournaments have yielded a top-25 finish and he has clearly settled well back into DPWT life after a spell on the LIV circuit.

This week's stiff ball-striking examination seems ideal for Wiesberger, who is exceptional from tee to green. He showed great affection for Royal County Down in the 2015 Irish Open, losing a playoff to Soren Kjeldsen. At that stage of his career, Wiesberger had won only twice on the DPWT and had arrived following back-to-back missed cuts.

Nine years later, Wiesberger has added another six DPWT titles, including a Scottish Open on links terrain. He may be in his prime at the age of 38.

Other selections

Julien Guerrier 100-1
Matthew Baldwin 200-1
Grant Forrest 275-1

Julien Guerrier relishes links golf. He grew up in a particularly windy part of France and quickly learned how to control his ball in a breeze. He won the Amateur Championship at Royal St George's in 2006, then won twice on the Challenge Tour in 2017, including a victory in Ireland.

Guerrier, who has had eight top-three finishes on the DPWT, went close at Hillside on a links in the 2022 Cazoo Classic. He has been in solid nick of late and looks a lively outsider in County Down.

At even bigger odds, Matthew Baldwin and Grant Forrest appeal as each-way investments. Baldwin, who grew up in Southport and knows Royal Birkdale well, is a links master. He won on the Challenge Tour in 2011, then made his DPWT breakthrough in windy conditions in last year's SDC Championship – a seven-shot romp at the St Francis Links in South Africa.

Baldwin almost won on the Challenge Tour in Northern Ireland in the 2019 ISPS Handa World Invitational. He was third in the 2014 Irish Open, fifth in the 2012 Scottish Open at the Castle Stuart Links, and he has been lively lately, taking 12th place in the Czech Masters followed by 18th in the British Masters.

Forrest is also hugely comfortable on links terrain and will not fear whatever conditions he faces in Northern Ireland. He won the 2012 Scottish Amateur at Royal Dornoch, then the 2014 St Andrews Links Trophy, before finishing runner-up in the 2015 Amateur Championship at Carnoustie.

Forrest's Irish Open record is fantastic, including 14th place in 2019, fourth in 2021 and third last year. His DPWT breakthrough came on a links in the 2021 Hero Open at Fairmont St Andrews and he was third in the 2022 Cazoo Classic at Hillside. This is a superb links golfer and 33rd place at The Belfry last time out was encouraging.

Course guide for the Irish Open

• Course Royal County Down Golf Club, Newcastle, County Down, Northern Ireland
• Prize money $6m ($1m to the winner)
• Length 7,186 yards
• Par 71 – three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Rory McIlroy (3), Robert MacIntyre (16), Aaron Rai (22), Shane Lowry (32), Nicolai Hojgaard (49)
• Course records - 72 holes 282 Soren Kjeldsen, Eddie Pepperell, Bernd Wiesberger (2015) 18 holes 65 Maximilian Kieffer (2015)
• Course winners taking part Soren Kjeldsen
• When to bet By 7.30am on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 12.30pm on Thursday
• Last week – European Masters 1 M Wallace (18-1), 2 A Garcia-Heredia (500-1), 3 A Johnston (100-1), T4 C Gugler (500-1), J Scrivener (200-1), T6 A Fitzpatrick (35-1), J Luiten (45-1)
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview Royal County Down opened in 1889 and is one of the oldest golf clubs in the world. It is rated the best course in the world by Golf Digest. It was originally designed by Old Tom Morris, refined by others including Harry Colt, with Donald Steel conducting the most recent update. The Championship Course is a famous links which hosted the Irish Open in 1928, 1935 and 2015, the Amateur Championship in 1970 and 1999, the Walker Cup in 2007 and the Palmer Cup in 2012. The rugged terrain, numerous blind shots, penal rough, gorse, heather and bunkering make for a challenging layout. Two under par was enough to top the leaderboard after 72 holes of the last Irish Open at Royal County Down. The first and 12th were the only holes which played under par in that event
• Story of last year Vincent Norrman edged Hurly Long to win by a shot at the K Club, County Kildare
• Weather forecast Clear the most part, with some potential for showers on Saturday. A chilly first two days, getting warmer at weekend. Light to moderate breezes, peaking on Saturday afternoon
• Type of player suited to the challenge Royal County Down is a demanding links track, so support strong ball-strikers who are comfortable on this type of terrain
• Key attribute Accuracy

Steve Palmer's Irish key stat

There were five Englishmen in the top eight in the 2015 Irish Open at County Down

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For those looking for even more extensive golf coverage don't miss Palmer's extra pointers every Wednesday in the Racing Post newspaper.

As well as his tips and insight you will also get expert spotlight comments for all players in our extensive PGA Tour and DP Tour price comparison grids which include course and recent form, plus Palmer's unique attribute icons to help identify the type of players likely to be suited to conditions each week.