Steve Palmer's free BMW Championship predictions & golf betting tips

When to bet on the BMW Championship

By 2.25pm on Thursday

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Where can I watch the BMW Championship?

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 7pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's BMW Championship predictions

Patrick Cantlay
4pts each-way 18-1 Betfair, Power

Collin Morikawa
3.5pts each-way 16-1 bet365

Wyndham Clark
3pts each-way 25-1 general

Tom Hoge
1pt each-way 100-1 general

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Steve Palmer's BMW Championship preview

Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele remain first and second in the FedEx Cup standings and the outstanding performers of 2024 seem set to retain those places going into next week's Tour Championship season finale.

Scheffler was tetchy at the weekend in the FedEx St Jude Championship as his putting demons returned. He did enough to almost guarantee his position on the front of the starting grid for the Tour Championship, so has every right to switch off mentally in the BMW Championship. Minimal practice and staying fresh should be the target.

Schauffele is the only player with a mathematical chance of overtaking Scheffler in the standings prior to the Tour Championship, but the Californian must win the BMW Championship with Scheffler tailed off. There is probably an acceptance between the pair that the BMW counts for precious little in the FedEx Cup.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Patrick Cantlay 18-1

While Scheffler and Schauffele may not be fully invested in the BMW Championship, Patrick Cantlay carries a determination to set up the opportunity of a second FedEx Cup title. From ninth place in the FedEx standings, a strong BMW Championship will put the Californian in the thick of things for East Lake.

Cantlay got off to a horror start in the FedEx St Jude Championship, going three over par through four holes, carding five Thursday bogeys. From Friday onwards, though, the early rust had disappeared. From the 15th hole in round one to the 18th hole in round four – a stretch of 57 holes – Cantlay went bogey-free.

Closing rounds of 67, 66 and 66 meant 12th place in Memphis for the 2021 FedEx Cup champion. He won the BMW Championship that year, then successfully defended in 2022, so is gunning for a BMW hat-trick this week. He has been rounding into form over the last few months, possessing the long-game solidity and distance control to thrive at Castle Pines.

Cantlay's PGA Tour breakthrough came at altitude in Nevada in 2017 in the Shriners Open. His record at altitude generally is excellent and he has experienced caddie Joe LaCava to help the cause. This alliance can be trusted to pick the right clubs.

Next best bet

Collin Morikawa 16-1

A stretch of 12 consecutive top-25 finishes has put Collin Morikawa in fourth place in the FedEx Cup standings. He closed with a 67 for 22nd place in the St Jude Championship on Sunday, so is well in the hunt for the FedEx Cup.

Morikawa, who was third in the Masters, fourth in the US PGA, runner-up at Memorial, 14th in the US Open, fourth in the Scottish Open and 16th in the Open, is desperate to turn that consistency into some silverware. Like Cantlay, he boasts a great record on Jack Nicklaus designs, and is well equipped for the challenge of altitude.

Morikawa has lived in Las Vegas since 2019 and much of his practice is done at altitude at The Summit Club, which has lots of elevation changes like Castle Pines. Morikawa, who was runner-up in the 2021 CJ Cup at Summit, can rely on his trusty faded approaches to go the right distance at altitude this week.

Other selections

Wyndham Clark 25-1
Tom Hoge 100-1

Wyndham Clark will be thrilled to have found his A-game in the lead-up to his hometown event. The Denver-born star won the Colorado State Championship in 2009 and 2011, playing Castle Pines as a youngster, and he attended The International there as a spectator.

A maiden PGA Tour title last year saw Clark's career take off, then he became a Major champion by winning the US Open. Victory in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February continued the streak of success, followed by near-misses at Bay Hill, Sawgrass and Hilton Head.

Clark emerged from a quiet spell with ninth place in the Travelers Championship, then followed up with tenth spot in the Scottish Open and a positive Olympics, where nobody outscored him over the final three rounds. He closed with a 64 for seventh place in Memphis on Sunday and the local lad can give the Denver galleries plenty to cheer this week.

Complete a four-pronged attack with Tom Hoge, who is one of the best in the business at controlling approach shots. He made his PGA Tour breakthrough in the 2022 Pebble Beach Pro-Am and has become more comfortable in elite company, finishing third in the Players Championship last year.

Hoge was third again in the Travelers Championship – a Signature Event – at the end of June. He has missed a couple of cuts on the mark lately, but seems well capable of getting into the mix at a massive price in Colorado.

Course guide for the BMW Championship

• Course Castle Pines Golf Club, Denver, Colorado
• Prize money $20m ($3.6m to the winner)
• Length 8,130 yards
• Par 72 – four par-fives; ten par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 50 (no cut)
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Xander Schauffele (2), Rory McIlroy (3), Ludvig Aberg (4), Wyndham Clark (5)
• When to bet By 2.25pm on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 7pm on Thursday
• Time difference Colorado is seven hours behind the UK and Ireland
• Last week – FedEx St Jude Championship 1 H Matsuyama (25-1), T2 X Schauffele (8-1), V Hovland (35-1), 4 S Scheffler (16-5), T5 S Burns (50-1), N Dunlap (175-1), T7 W Clark (60-1), R MacIntyre (100-1)
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview Castle Pines was a PGA Tour venue from 1986 through 2006, hosting The International, which used a modified Stableford format. The track affords breathtaking views of Rocky Mountain. Jack Nicklaus has been overseeing a revision of the layout over the last decade to get it ready for a Tour return. Ten holes have been redesigned, 77 bunkers and ten water hazards rebuilt, and 600 yards added to the length. The course is 6,500 feet above sea level, so balls travel about ten percent further. The fairways are tree-lined, but Nicklaus likes to give players generous landing areas off the tee. Approach-shots are more difficult, with lots of raised greens
• Story of last year Viktor Hovland won by two shots at Olympia Fields, setting up his eventual FedEx Cup victory
• Weather forecast Sunny, hot and calm, with gentle breezes peaking at 11 mph
• Type of player suited to the challenge Distance control is the key to success at Castle Pines, with clubbing so difficult at altitude. Approach-shot accuracy is all-important
• Key attribute Accuracy

Steve Palmer's BMW Championship key stat

Americans have won seven of the last 11 BMW Championships

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For those looking for even more extensive golf coverage don't miss Palmer's extra pointers every Wednesday in the Racing Post newspaper.

As well as his tips and insight you will also get expert spotlight comments for all players in our extensive PGA Tour and DP Tour price comparison grids which include course and recent form, plus Palmer's unique attribute icons to help identify the type of players likely to be suited to conditions each week.