NFL Super Bowl LIX predictions, odds and betting tips: Chiefs capable of historic hat-trick

Super Bowl LIX Best bets

Kansas City Chiefs
3pts 11-2 general

Houston Texans
1pt each-way 16-1 bet365, Hills

Green Bay Packers
1pt each-way 18-1 BoyleSports, Hills

2024-25 Super Bowl predictions

The Kansas City Chiefs became the first NFL team for 19 years to win back-to-back Super Bowl titles in February and they look well worth backing to complete a historic hat-trick in New Orleans this season.

Head coach Andy Reid, magic quarterback Patrick Mahomes and high-profile tight end Travis Kelce have now combined to win three championships in the last five years and it's hard to make a convincing case for their incredible run to stop this year.

The Chiefs' latest win was achieved in a different fashion from the first two by this team, who used to rely on an awesome offence to outscore opposing sides. 

Last season's win would not have happened without some impressive performances from their defence, with defensive tackle Chris Jones an unstoppable force when leading the pass-rush and creating opportunities for a young and talented secondary.

Cornerback L'Jarius Sneed has been traded to the Titans but he and linebacker Willie Gay are the only notable losses from their championship roster and the gains made on offence in the offseason have been marked.

Dropped passes plagued the Chiefs last season but Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have been removed from the equation and replaced by valuable upgrades in Marquise 'Hollywood' Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy.

Opposing general managers did themselves no favours in allowing the speedy Worthy, who ran the fastest 40-yard time in NFL Combine history, to fall to the Chiefs in the first round of the draft and the early signs are good that he will form a fruitful partnership with Mahomes. 

Travis Kelce, now just as famous for being Taylor Swift's boyfriend as for his NFL achievements, had a relatively quiet first half of the season last time but exploded into form in the playoffs, with 32 catches in four post-season games for 355 yards and three touchdowns.

The Chiefs have a tricky start as they face AFC North contenders Baltimore and Cincinnati in their first two games, but the majority of their schedule is manageable and it's no surprise that they are 2-5 to win the AFC West for the ninth year in a row.

Their leading AFC rivals in the betting markets are those same Ravens and Bengals, but the defensive changes in Baltimore may be being underplayed after coordinator Mike Macdonald left to take over as head coach in Seattle, and John Harbaugh's team have lost key players at each level of their defence with Jadeveon Clowney, Patrick Queen and Geno Stone among their losses.

Both those teams also have to play in a brutal AFC North division in which the Bengals finished last in 2023 despite having a winning record.

The Buffalo Bills may have missed their window to reach a Super Bowl and QB Josh Allen has lost several of his most trusted offensive weapons, while it would be asking a lot of the New York Jets to get things together this year as Aaron Rodgers makes a second attempt to start his final fling with them after an Achilles injury.

The two best alternatives to the Chiefs in the AFC could be the Miami Dolphins and the Houston Texans, with preference for the Texans, who improved rapidly to make the divisional round of the playoffs last year.

The Texans snared quarterback CJ Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson with two of the top three picks in the 2023 draft and left their 3-13-1 2022 season far behind to win the AFC South.

The poised Stroud can now seek out veteran wide receiver Stefon Diggs as well as Nico Collins and Tank Dell, and Joe Mixon is an underrated addition at running back.

In the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers are favourites to get back to the big game after their overtime loss to the Chiefs but that conference is going through a resurgence and they look short in the betting.

The Detroit Lions should be strong again but their toughest opposition could come in their own NFC North division in the form of the Green Bay Packers.

Expectations were moderate for the Pack in Jordan Love's first season as starting quarterback but they finished impressively, winning six of their last eight games including a 27-19 December win over the Chiefs.

In the playoffs, they stunned Dallas 48-32 on the road before going agonisingly close to beating the 49ers in California, losing 24-21.

Super Bowl I was contested between the Chiefs and Packers in 1967 and a repeat of that match-up could be on the cards.

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