'I'll be surprised if he can't run these ragged' - Paul Kealy with four selections on Welsh Grand National day

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First Flow
1.05 Chepstow
2pts win

Bells Of Peterboro
1.40 Chepstow
1pt win

The Big Breakaway
2.50 Chepstow
1pt each-way with firms offering at least six places

Unanswered Prayers
3.09 Kempton
1pt win

The recent history of the Coral Welsh Grand National (2.50) is littered with horses who have run well in the race more than once, and I'll be hoping for more of the same in the latest running at Chepstow.

In the last ten years Mountainous has won the race twice, Raz De Maree was second the year before he won, and last year's hero The Two Amigos had been second and fifth in previous runnings.

The Big Breakaway was second last year and despite a horror show of a run at Aintree in the Becher Chase this month, he can show how well he is suited to this particular test.

That Becher effort will no doubt put many off, but while the Grand National fences are nowhere near the formidable obstacles of old, horses can still fail to take to them. That was patently the case with The Big Breakaway, who started backing off them and wasted too much time in the air.

Harry Cobden wisely pulled him up a long way from home, so he shouldn't have had a hard race even if he didn't have an enjoyable experience, and this is surely more his bag.

The form of last year's Welsh National certainly looks solid enough as The Two Amigos, who won by just over a length from The Big Breakaway, with five lengths further back to The Big Dog and 20-plus to the rest (Truckers Lodge, another race regular, was fourth), had become incredibly well handicapped and was running off a mark 15lb lower than when he'd been second in it in January 2021.

The Big Dog was leading Galopin Des Champs two out before falling in the Irish Gold Cup and went on to finish fifth in the Grand National, and The Big Breakaway received only 1lb from him.

Joe Tizzard's eight-year-old is hardly prolific, but he's 1lb lower than last year and the heavy rain that is forecast to fall overnight and through much of the day is going to be bang in his favour.

There are obviously plenty to fear, but Super Survivor is short enough based on a returning second to Git Maker, who was beaten out of sight at Ascot on Saturday. While he impressed when winning a novice handicap chase on this card a year ago, it needs to be remembered the horse he beat was Mister Coffey, who is never happier than when finishing second, something he has done six times in 11 starts over fences. 

Nassalam was a revelation in blinkers in the trial here last time, jumping better than he has ever done in his life, and he'd be a massive threat if he stays. He has spent much of his career over 2m4f and shorter, though, and having had another look at his finishing effort here, I'm not convinced this marathon trip is going to help.

Anyone who managed to get some of the early 20-1 about Bells Of Peterboro in the 2m7½f handicap hurdle (1.40) will be pleased to know that the race has cut up quite dramatically from the five-day stage.

Early favourite Eldorado Allen, who was as short as 9-4 and potentially a blot on the handicap with the BHA assessor letting him run off 143, did not make the final decs and nor did the four-timer-seeking The Imposter.

Bells Of Peterboro is still nowhere near the most likely winner based on recent form, but he's of obvious interest once you consider his record over the Christmas period and in this race in particular.

The eight-year-old won at Market Rasen on Boxing Day in 2019, and he's been first and second in this contest for the last two years.

He won by 22 lengths in a bog two years ago, but found Flight Deck four and a quarter lengths too good for him last year, although that was no bad effort considering the winner was last seen running Dashel Drasher to two lengths in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury.

Bells Of Peterboro was well below form when last seen, but he's now 6lb lower than when he was here 12 months ago, and trainer Tim Vaughan has had six weeks to get him fully primed for another crack. We can almost certainly expect a better run now.

Only four go in the 2m3½f handicap chase (1.05), but there is a bet because I can't have the novice Good Risk At All being favourite over First Flow.

Good Risk At All is talented, but he's usually at his best fresh and doesn't always back up good runs. Having looked really good on his chase debut at Carlisle, his jumping fell apart at Cheltenham next time, and First Flow could easily get him out of his rhythm.

First Flow does arguably prefer going right-handed, but I'll be surprised if he can't run these ragged back over a more suitable trip after his second to Boothill at Ascot, a race which in any case has worked out very well (winner and fifth first and second back there next time).

It's largely small fields at Kempton and the only race that really whets my appetite as punting heat is the 3m handicap chase (3.09), in which Tea Clipper is quite a strong favourite.

There's no doubt he is well handicapped at his best and is in decent form, too, having run second to subsequent winner Hold That Taught at Ascot last time.

With a record of 1-12 over fences, I always seem him as more of an each-way bet than a win punt, though, and he's not an each-way price here. I'm going to take him on with Unanswered Prayers.

With form figures of FU on his last two starts, he can hardly be described as as a safe conveyance, but those letters disguise the fact he has been running really well.

He was disputing second when falling at the last in the Ascot race won by Victtorino (winner again since) two starts ago, while last time he was on the heels of Tea Clipper when badly hampered by a faller and unseating. 

There would not have been much between them then, and I don't see why there should be now, especially with a 2lb pull in the weights.

Read these next:

Tom Segal has three selections on Welsh National day after Boxing Day winners at 12-1 and 10-3 

Paul Kealy's play of the day at Chepstow 

'I've little doubt he's better than his rating suggests' - Conor Fennelly with three fancies at Leopardstown 

The Punt Acca: Lee Sharp's three horse racing tips at Kempton and Leopardstown on Wednesday 

Wednesday's free racing tips: six horses to consider putting in your multiples 

Chepstow Placepot tips: Paul Kealy's perm for the £150k guaranteed pool on Welsh National day 

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