Paul Kealy follows up Friday's 11-2 winner with 5-1 Cheltenham success and has more Saturday selections
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Are U Wise To That
12.40 Cheltenham
2pts win
Monmiral
1.50 Cheltenham
1pt win
Easy As That
2.25 Cheltenham
1pt win
Whistleinthedark
3.15 Doncaster
1pt win
Stainsby Girl
3.35 Cheltenham
1pt each-way
This weekend's punting strategy revolves around backing horses who look likely to appreciate a step up in trip, having found things happening a bit too quickly in good company last time.
Two of them, Easy As That and Whistleinthedark, ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last month, finishing sixth and eighth.
Easy As That, progressive over around 2m4f as a novice last season (did win easily over as far as 2m5½f), found them going half a stride too fast for him from an early stage, and he had only one behind him approaching the fourth-last.
He ended up seeing out the race fairly well, though, even if he was beaten 21 lengths, and there has to be every chance he will prove more at home in the 3m2f handicap chase (2.25) back at Cheltenham now.
His dam was a point winner and a half-sister to Time For Rupert, who was high-class over 3m as a hurdler and a chaser, and Easy As That, who has only five chase outings to his name, could be about to come into his own.
Whistleinthedark went through his race a little bit better in the early stages, but was beginning to feel the pinch before a dreadful mistake ended whatever slim chance he had, and he's another who looks sure to be more at home going up in trip, in his case in the 3m handicap chase (3.15) at Doncaster.
That was his first defeat in five outings over fences, and it was a heavy one, but he's considerably better than that and, as he won easily over 2m5½f on his chase debut last December (very strong at the end), there has to be every hope he'll get 3m at Doncaster.
Indeed, he should be guaranteed to, as his dam is a half-sister to Welsh National winner Mini Sensation and Scottish National runner-up Shotgun Willy, and has already produced a couple of winners over 3m.
Before the ITV cameras get involved Are U Wise To That might just prove the best bet of the day in the 3m1½f handicap (12.40) at Cheltenham.
The Jonjo O'Neill-trained six-year-old made a winning chase debut at Warwick in September despite clearly finding 2m4f on the short side (won going away in the end), although it wasn't necessarily the slight drop in trip that did for him in a better race at Ascot next time as he jumped violently left throughout on what was his first run on a right-handed track.
I'd imagine it will be a while before we see him go that way again, but I thought he did remarkably well to stay on into fourth, and he's surely worth another chance.
He was a staying-on second in his sole point, and connections evidently liked what they saw as they also bought the two-length winner.
That winner was Inch House, who has already improved 16lb this season for going over fences and is now rated 137, and it won't be a surprise if Are U Wise To That ends up somewhere near that level, too (currently rated 125).
He's won three of his six races under rules, and his dam is a half-sister to Denman, so there is an obvious case for improvement at the new trip.
Of his rivals ahead of him in the market, I'm not sure Mofasa's form is anything special, We'veallbeencaught is essentially disappointing, and if Wiseguy doesn't pick his feet up higher than he did at Exeter's soft fences on his winning chase debut then Nico de Boinville will be in for a hairy ride as long as he lasts.
In the feature Virgin Bet December Gold Cup (1.50) I'm going to simply take the hint from Harry Cobden, who has chosen Monmiral over course specialist and Paddy Power Gold Cup third Il Ridoto.
Cobden got it right in the Paddy Power on Stage Star, and there must be sound reasons for him staying off Il Ridoto, whom he rode throughout last season and who has such a solid record in these big handicap chases at Cheltenham.
The reasons are not hard to find, as while Monmiral has arguably been a shade disappointing since looking a potential star in an unbeaten juvenile hurdling campaign a few seasons ago, time has shown he was facing an impossible task on his first couple of attempts over fences, and he's certainly not on a bad mark on the strength of those.
The first was a seven-length second to the now 170-rated three-time Grade 1-winning chaser Jonbon, while the other was a three-and-a-quarter-length second to subsequent Brown Advisory winner The Real Whacker over this course and distance in January, where he was a head in front of Thunder Rock.
There's no argument with Thunder Rock being favourite now given his form with the recent Coral Gold Cup first and second Dataslrightgino and Mahler Mission, but Monmiral comes here after a wind op with a vote of confidence from a jockey who could have ridden a horse almost certain to be on the premises, and that's good enough for me.
The closing mares' handicap hurdle (3.35) looks just about the most competitive heat on the card, and you could make a clear case for plenty.
When that's the case I quite like to start looking at the contenders in reverse price order, and I reckon Stainsby Girl, who had only one behind her in the betting on Friday morning, has as good a chance as any.
She might be an outsider, but she joined Nick Alexander from Donald Whillans last season with a progressive profile and continued on the up, winning three of her five starts.
Having blown away the cobwebs when fifth to Cheltenham Festival winner You Wear It Well at Wetherby over 2m on her return, she was right back to her best when second to a well-backed Irish gelding in a Class 2 handicap at Haydock over 2m3f.
Stainsby Girl has been in the frame on 14 of her 20 hurdles starts and goes back in against her own sex having run the best three races of her life within her last four outings, so I think the case for an each-way bet at double-figure odds is fair enough.
Read more tipping:
'He could be a class above' - Tom Segal's five selections from Cheltenham and Doncaster
Paul Kealy's play of the day at Cheltenham
The Punt Acca: Matt Rennie's three horse racing tips from Cheltenham and Doncaster on ITV tomorrow
Saturday's free racing tips: six horses to consider putting in your multiples
Cheltenham Placepot picks: Paul Kealy's perm for the £150k guaranteed pool
Do you want £400+ of free bets? Racing Post have got the best offers, all in one place. Visit racingpost.com/freebets to find out more.
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