'He looks primed to go well' - Dave Randall with three selections on Thursday

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Casual Observer
3.25 Market Rasen
1pt each-way

Liseo
6.00 Chelmsford
1pt each-way with firms offering four places

Penzance
6.00 Chelmsford
1pt each-way with firms offering four places

The form standard for the concluding Class 5 bumper over 2m½f at Market Rasen (3.25) is set by Diamond Koda.

He registered a Racing Post Rating of 102 when second on his debut over course and distance in May and improved on that bare form when second at Sandown on soft ground on his recent reappearance.

He gave the Paul Nicholls-trained favourite Touquet a good race in gruelling ground. The pair came clear and a reproduction of that form is likely to be competitive, but he is also likely to be sent off favourite, and his trainer Nick Kent is 0-54 in bumpers, including 21 such races at this course.

An each-way bet on Casual Observer is therefore advised. Casual Observer represents Harry Derham, who is 3-6 at this course, and jockey Paul O'Brien is 22-89 when riding for the yard.

The four-year-old cost £55,000 shortly after finishing second to Jeroboam Machin in an Irish point on heavy ground in the spring. That horse won a Fairyhouse bumper recently (RPR 116). Casual Observer has likeable testing ground and bumper influences in his pedigree and is worth an interest. His sire Pillar Coral is a half-brother to Coastal Path and Martaline for instance, and they have excellent records with their progeny in bumpers and on testing ground.

The other horse worthy of mention is Ballyvango. He is dropping in class on his second run of the season after finishing down the field at Cheltenham in October. He performed with credit when fifth in a bumper working out well at Kempton in March and if he comes on for that return and wants ground this testing he won't be far away either.

There's some good action on Chelmsford's Polytrack, including a Class 4 £12,650 handicap over 1m2f (6.00), and a strong shortlist of three has emerged, namely Liseo, Penzance and King's Code. Choosing between the three is less easy and judging by the early markets for the race the bookies are having the same problem separating the three at around 4-1.

King's Code is only 3lb higher than when winning a similar handicap over 1m½f at Wolverhampton in October under Rossa Ryan, and the eye was certainly drawn to Ryan's 20 per cent strike-rate when riding for David Evans. King's Code ran well again when stepped up to just shy of this trip at Wolverhampton recently and a reproduction of that form, with Ryan back in the saddle, should prove competitive.

The shortlist needs trimming, though, and the other two have the benefit of some significant course-and-distance form, and King's Code may struggle to give fellow three-year-old Penzance 9lb faced with this slightly stiffer test.

Penzance, who represents The Horse Watchers and Mick Appleby, was a promising second over this course and distance from a 4lb lower mark in June before being bought out of the Simon and Ed Crisford yard for 31,000gns in July.

The son of Wootton Bassett shaped encouragingly on his debut for Appleby at Wolverhampton last month after a five-month break, but was dropped 1lb. He is surely entitled to have come on for that first run for the yard and he looks primed to go well for connections who have proven time and again that they know how to place their new stock in this type of contest.

The four-year-old Liseo won over this course and distance from 4lb lower in September, and was a relatively close fourth in a Class 2 Kempton handicap off this mark of 81 over slightly further last month. The seventh, 12th and 13th have won since.

The Crisfords, who train Liseo, have a 23 per cent strike-rate with their runners in December, an 18 per cent strike-rate with their older handicappers at Chelmsford and Harry Davies has a 17 per cent strike-rate when riding for the yard.

Some punters don't like betting each-way at around 4-1, but a couple of firms are offering four places and it seems perfectly reasonable to take out some stake insurance on both selections while having two strong stabs at finding the winner.

Read these next:

The Punt Acca: Liam Headd with three horse racing tips at Market Rasen on Thursday 

Thursday's free racing tips: six horses to consider putting in your multiples 

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