'He is the one being underestimated in the market' - Paul Kealy's five selections for Coral Gold Cup day

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Cap Du Nord
12.30 Newbury
1pt each-way

Anyharminasking
1.40 Newbury
1pt each-way

Bad
2.15 Newbury
1pt each-way

Midnight River
2.50 Newbury
1pt each-way with firms offering at least five places

Eldorado Allen
2.50 Newbury
1pt each-way with firms offering at least five places

You couldn't hope to get a more competitive Coral Gold Cup (2.50) as it's 7-1 the field, and it's not hard to make some sort of case for most of the runners.

The two I backed ante-post on Monday were Eldorado Allen and Midnight River, but with the market for the race having been open for a lot longer than just this week, there hasn't been much change in the betting.

Eldorado Allen is the one I think is being underestimated in the market.

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If you were asked which horse in the field put up the best first-time-out performance this season on Racing Post Ratings the answer, despite five horses being ahead of him in the betting, would be Stolen Silver, who absolutely hacked up at Chepstow on his first attempt at 2m7½f in October.

The worries for him are the fact that he's gone up 7lb and has a superb record fresh, and he hasn't always backed it up next time.

In second place would be Eldorado Allen, a horse who has been around the block a few times, but has taken on the best from 2m-3m during his career and he ran a cracker to finish third in a valuable handicap at Ascot four weeks ago.

The nine-year-old showed all his usual exuberance that day and if anything was too keen to get on with things as he went hard enough in front from halfway.

However, although the first two swept by him turning for home, he still ran all the way to the line and, having been five lengths down on the runner-up at the last, he'd narrowed it to just one at the post.

Of course, there were a couple of last-fence casualties that probably flattered his finishing position, but it was still a fine effort from a horse who did too much too soon and jumped to his left all the way round. It gave some hope that he will see out this 3m2 trip.

Rated 166 after beating Royale Pagaille and Clan Des Obeaux in the Denman Chase at this track in February 2022, Eldorado Allen has run to RPRs of 160 or more on six occasions and four of those came within his first three runs of the last two seasons.

He began last term by running second to Bravemansgame and Protektorat in the Charlie Hall and Betfair Chases, but with a mark now of 154 it makes sense that he is handicapping.

He does not have the claim of Freddie Gingell that aided him at Ascot last time, but he does have Brendan Powell and he has been on board for all six of those 160-plus runs.

Midnight River is a far more obvious selection for Dan Skelton, who won this race last year with Le Milos.

Midnight River improved the best part of 20lb in three of five chase outings last term, saving his best for last when stepping up to 3m1f at Aintree.

He was never expected to make much impact in the Charlie Hall (23-length third behind Gentlemansgame and Bravemansgame) as it has always been about the Coral Gold Cup for him this season, and his effort at Wetherby was perfectly respectable.

Plenty of Skelton's runners have needed their first outing more than expected this term, and we should anticipate a more competitive version of Midnight River now.

As for those at the front of the market the cases for Complete Unknown (provided he stays) and Monbeg Genius (well handicapped on Ultima third, but will need to jump better than at Ascot) are solid enough, but I can't have the Irish pair Mahler Mission and Stumptown doing anything other than drift.

John McConnell, trainer of Mahler Mission, has gone 94 days and 165 runners without a winner on the Flat (prior to racing at Dundalk on Friday night) and 52 days and 42 runners without a winner over jumps. It would be some way to end a drought but but I couldn't have Mahler Mission on my mind.

Stumptown's trainer Gavin Cromwell has found winning big races in Britain a matter of routine in recent seasons, but his charge is 8lb higher than when just being touched off in an average Kim Muir and his three runs since then would barely put him at the last fence when Coral Gold Cup winner crosses the line.

A case can certainly be made for Kitty's Light back over fences after two spins over hurdles, but the Christian Williams runner I'm really interested in is Cap Du Nord in the Sir Peter O'Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase (12.30) before the ITV cameras arrive.

He has been a great advert for the skills of Williams as he's managed to bag nearly £300,000 in prize-money without ever winning a race off a mark higher than 127.

That's the mark off which he has won big handicaps at Kempton and Ascot in the last two seasons, but he's 4lb lower and back on the rating off which he won this in 2020 and 7lb lower than when fifth behind runaway winner Zanza (20lb higher now) last year.

He has been ridden by claimers on his most recent starts on ground that doesn't suit, but with the surface good in places there won't be any excuses on that score and Jack Tudor now takes over.

Time could, of course, be catching up with him, but he's bounced back from a losing run before when conditions have been in his favour.

Inch House is the upwardly mobile one, but he is a novice up 10lb in a better race than he won last time and he was never going to be missed in the market.

Jet Powered is the one who could prove thrown in for the Coral Racing Club Handicap Hurdle (1.40) as he is highly rated by Nicky Henderson, but he's in the right place in the market, and one who could outrun his price is Anyharminasking.

Having shaped really well when second in the Welsh Champion Hurdle on his reappearance, he was never going to like the ground next time in the Greatwood and ran accordingly after drifting in the market.

Conditions won't be an excuse this time, though, and on his final two starts last season Jonjo O'Neill's six-year-old demonstrated that he could do with a step up in trip. He'd actually have returned over 2m3½f this season at Chepstow if the ground wasn't deemed too soft.

Henderson also has the warm favourite for the Bet In Race With Coral Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (2.15) in Under Control, who was last seen beating Greatwood winner Iberico Lord at Sandown in April.

She's obviously a smart filly, but she doesn't get a weight-for-age allowance now and is not very big, so giving plenty of weight away may not be as easy as her odds suggest.

I'll take a chance on Bad, who has yet to deliver on expectations since coming over from France (went off at just 5-1 for the Boodles in March), but travelled really well for a long way at Ascot on his reappearance. He should strip fitter for that third-placed effort and is now 6lb lower than when he came over.

Read these next:

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The Punt Acca: Liam Headd with three fancies on Coral Gold Cup day at Newbury on Saturday 

Saturday's free racing tips: six horses to consider putting in your multiples 

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