'He could be thrown in' - Paul Kealy with a Savills Chase outsider in his three Thursday selections

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Conflated
2.25 Leopardstown
1pt each-way with firms offering four places

Queen Jane
2.40 Limerick
1pt win

Foxy Jacks
3.00 Leopardstown
1pt win

We've already had one shock in a Grade 1 chase over Christmas, so who's to say we won't have another?

As with the King George on Tuesday, the market for the Savills Chase (2.25) at Leopardstown is dominated by three horses, but we've just seen how dangerous it is to discount the others following Hewick's rattling late finish in an eventful race at Kempton.

The top two at Leopardstown are, admittedly, much tougher to pick holes in. I'm certainly prepared to forgive Galopin Des Champs for his third behind Fastorslow and Appreciate It in the John Durkan as that race was more than three weeks earlier in the calendar this year than last and it could well have been needed.

Gerri Colombe is the coming force, though, and he is a winner, as he showed when having to dig deep to get past Envoi Allen and stablemate Conflated at Down Royal.

That pair had the advantage of race fitness, too, so it's hard to crab the effort, although Envoi Allen is not really a three-miler and Conflated is a much better horse going left-handed.

I'm sure Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy believe Gerri Colombe to be a much better horse than Conflated, but the Gigginstown-owned nine-year-old is the one who appeals for each-way purposes, particularly if you can get on with William Hill, who are offering four places.

A respectable third behind Galopin Des Champs and Bravemansgame in last season's Gold Cup, Conflated's third at Down Royal was, on Racing Post Ratings, by some margin his best ever run on a right-handed track, and that strongly suggests he's at least as good as last year.

His last two outings at Leopardstown have resulted in a six-and-a-half-length win in the Irish Gold Cup and a five-length success in this race 12 months ago, and there's every reason to expect him to be better than he showed at Down Royal.

He was 2-1 favourite for this last year following a weaker effort in defeat to Envoi Allen and Kemboy at Down Royal, and while this is a considerably stronger heat, the 14-1 appeals each-way.

Last year's Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (3.00) housed the subsequent winner of the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham, but it wasn't runaway scorer Maxxum, who was made clear favourite for that event following a 16-length romp.

Good Time Johnny sneaked his way into third that day at odds of 28-1, but was just under a third of that price two starts later when powering clear at Cheltenham, and punters will no doubt be keeping an eye on those who make the frame this time.

Most of these would get into the final off their revised BHA marks, so they don't need to actually win to qualify, but in any case I'm interested in a horse who is highly unlikely to have the Pertemps as his Cheltenham target anyway.

Foxy Jacks is a chaser and he might not be up to it over hurdles, but having won the Midlands National at Kilbeggan in July and a cross-country heat at Cheltenham last month from a mark of 149, he is now a better horse than he has ever been, and if he can transfer even a smidgen of his improvement to his hurdles rating he could be thrown in.

It is a while since he has shown anything over hurdles, but his only runs in them in the past three and a half years have been as season-opening primers for something else. This time he's race-fit, and with many of his rivals perhaps having another target in mind, this is not a bad little pot to aim at off a hurdles mark of just 123 with Gavin Brouder taking off 5lb.

I couldn't find anything to excite me among the low-grade fare in Britain so it's off to Limerick for the final bet.

Henry de Bromhead has won the last two runnings of the Listed handicap chase (2.40) with Spyglass Hill and subsequent Grand Annual winner Maskada, and he looks to have the perfect candidate for a hat-trick in Queen Jane.

Having won her first two starts over fences last season, including once at Limerick, she fell at the last when in a challenging position at the Punchestown festival, and she was back with a career-best earlier this month when a head second to Brides Hill at Fairyhouse with the pair 14 lengths clear of the rest.

A 5lb rise for that looks fair enough, and she could well prove to be the class act in the race.

Read more tipping:

'He's one of the best jumpers you will ever see' - Tom Segal believes the Savills Chase is ripe for an upset 

'The market is likely to underestimate his claims' - Conor Fennelly with three fancies at Leopardstown 

The Punt Acca: Harry Wilson's three horse racing tips from Catterick and Newcastle on Thursday 

Thursday's free racing tips: six horses to consider putting in your multiples 

Newcastle Placepot tips: Paul Kealy's perm for the £50,000 guaranteed pool on the all-weather 

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