‘Of course there’s pressure, but it’s good pressure’ – Arqana bids to keep bucking the trend as crucial period commences

Expectations around the market at the upcoming yearling sales appear mixed at best. And with good reason. 

This crucial period in the bloodstock industry’s annual cycle comes at a time when there is plenty of turmoil in the wider world. 

The news agenda has been dominated by conflict, elections – recent and impending – and financial unease. There are fears of a recession in the US and only last week the Japanese stock market witnessed the biggest one-day fall since 1987. 

All that is to say the key ingredient in any market – confidence – is in shorter supply than ideal. 

Given this backdrop it would almost seem unreasonable to expect the first stop on the circuit, Arqana’s August Sale, to maintain its upward trajectory, particularly as the global bloodstock market is undergoing its own profound challenges. 

But while confidence may be lacking elsewhere, it has seldom been higher in Deauville. 

The growing respect the French thoroughbred has on the global stage has been boosted by Arqana’s yearling sale graduates, including top-level winners such as Ace Impact, Ancient Wisdom, Facteur Cheval, Gold Trip, Little Big Bear, Look De Vega, Metropolitan, Paddington, Place Du Carrousel, Shin Emperor and Unquestionable, to name but a few. 

The blue-chip August Sale, which begins on Friday, has been on a steep curve in recent years, and matters reached unprecedented heights 12 months ago. The average price hit €233,470, the median was €170,000 and turnover topped out at €55,099,000. 

Ace Impact: undefeated Arc winner is an Arqana flagbearerCredit: Edward Whitaker

Those metrics were not only personal bests for this sale, but represented year-on-year gains of ten per cent, 18 per cent and ten per cent respectively. The clearance rate was 83 per cent, also a new high. 

Those results helped the event buck the prevailing trend in 2023, and Arqana’s chief executive Freddy Powell says the team are “quietly confident” of maintaining a similar standard this time around. 

“The vibes we have at the minute, between the catalogue, the horses we know are in there, the racing results we’ve had over the last 18 months, and what we know of the people who are coming, we can be quietly confident we've everything in place to maintain a high standard of results for French breeders,” says Powell. 

“Of course, there are things we can’t control. Between the economy, politics and the weather, they can change a few things, and those few things could cause a drop of ten or 15 per cent in our results. But what is for sure, everything we can control, we’ll do it with a smile and we’ll do it well.” 

A flick through the 325-lot catalogue gives an indication as to why the Arqana team is heading into the sale with smiles on faces. For a taste of what’s in store, there are five lots by Dubawi, eight by Frankel, three by Justify, four by Kingman, six by Lope De Vega and 22 by Siyouni. 

As well as an array of yearlings by elite sires, there are siblings to the likes of Aclaim, Ancient Wisdom, Bucanero Fuerte, Feed The Flame, Magic Wand and Rashabar, while high-performing mares with progeny on offer include Channel, Donjah, Lady Frankel, Palmas, September, Simple Verse, Spain Burg, Tamazirte and Watch Me. 

“It’s a good group of yearlings and I’m very happy with the diversity of stallions we have, which is important when you have buyers coming from all around the world,” says Powell. 

Dubawi: probably favourite to regain the sires' title and has five choice yearlings for sale in Deauville this weekCredit: Edward Whitaker

“We've some exciting young sires from all over Europe; there’s Darley’s Too Darn Hot and Blue Point, in France there’s Hello Youmzain and Zarak, while we’ve also been impressed with what we’ve seen of Sottsass’s two-year-olds. Among the new sires there’s St Mark’s Basilica and Palace Pier, they seem to be the ones who are really pleasing people in terms of conformation, and they’re both sires who won big races in France.” 

Playing at the upper echelons of the bloodstock market is not for the casual investor. It requires vast financial resources – the kind of wealth that tends to be impervious to events like turbulence in the stock market. 

This point was borne out on the other side of the Atlantic when Fasig-Tipton’s Saratoga Sale posted record aggregate, average and median figures. A dozen lots brought a seven-figure sum, while 70 went for $500,000 or more, headed by the $3.4 million Not This Time colt bought by Donato Lanni for Zedan Racing. 

Although there is no direct link between the markets in Saratoga and Deauville, what events in the US suggest about spending habits in 2024 can be only a source of optimism.  

“Obviously we can’t control the stock market but, as we saw at Saratoga, a lot of people will see this as an opportunity to invest,” says Powell. “You just never know. At the level Saratoga and the August Sale operate at, there are a lot of people who are proofed against these market events; they’re used to it, they know what it is and they’ll go through it.

“It’s not an exact science though, that’s for sure. When Saratoga works well it doesn’t mean Deauville is going to work well, but we’ll definitely take it as a good sign rather than a bad sign.” 

While the ultra wealthy may not be about to alter their buying plans, it remains to be seen how well trade holds up below the upper reaches. 

“What we’ve seen since last autumn is that the top of the bloodstock market probably remains untouched,” says Powell. “The 30 top horses of the August Sale will probably do as well as usual, but one of the reasons we’re working as hard as possible to get as many people here is to make sure the rest of the market is supported as well.” 

Freddy Powell: 'We’re working as hard as possible to get as many people here as we can'Credit: Patrick McCann

Whatever the level of the market, international participation is likely to be a key component of trade throughout the European circuit. Powell says he is expecting a global cross-section of buyers to descend on Deauville. 

“We provide a plane from Saratoga that lands in Deauville on Wednesday, that’s very popular and we have more people than usual on there,” he says. “And there’s some new faces on there as well, people who have been told to come by someone who came last year. 

“There’s also a few Australians, some Japanese buyers, and different Emirates countries like Qatar and Bahrain. Basically all the big racing nations will be represented, and some of the big owners will be here themselves because there’s big racing in Deauville this weekend.” 

Those playing with middle-market budgets will be encouraged by the sale’s past results, as not all recent additions to the roll of honour have cost a colossal price. 

This year’s Prix du Jockey Club winner Look De Vega, for example, was unearthed by Carlos and Yann Lerner at €160,000, Coventry Stakes scorer Rashabar was a €120,000 signing by Sam Sangster, while Ace Impact was secured by Jean-Claude Rouget at €75,000. 

“There are some yearlings that are affordable that are still very nice horses,” says Powell. “That’s been proven by the results over the years. If you look at the sales results, it’s usually strong at the top but there are opportunities below.” 

An unusual feature of last year’s yearling sales was just how long it took buyers to warm to their task at each sale. Powell urged them to consider striking early if they want to secure value for money. 

“One thing we try to encourage is for people to look at the start of the sale,” he says. “It’s the first sale of the year and over the first 30 or 40 lots you can see people being a bit shy, waiting to see what’s going on. This is where opportunities are. 

“There have been many times when a buyer has been to see us and said, ‘I got that horse for €120,000 at the beginning of the sale and by the end of the day he’d have made €180,000’. People who are looking for opportunities should probably look at the start of the sale. 

“We’re working through the catalogue in alphabetical order, so there’s no reason why the horses at the beginning shouldn’t be as good as the ones at the end.”

The ring at the Arqana sales complex in Deauville will be a hive of activity from FridayCredit: Zuzanna Lupa

Powell also says the introduction of the Arqana Series, which consists of five lucrative races open to all yearlings offered in Deauville, has helped to shore up the choppier parts of the market. Four of the series races take place at Deauville on the Thursday preceding the August Sale. 

“We’re excited about the Arqana Series races,” says Powell. “We’re hoping to have a good turnout and that the quality of the horses represents what we have in the sale. We’re looking forward to it, and it’s a good way to kick off the whole weekend.”

Summing up the magnitude of the August Sale, Powell says: “It’s huge. It’s close to 20 per cent of our whole year [in turnover terms] in three days. It takes a lot of work and a lot of time to conduct the inspections and gather the reports in the office, so everybody has been working hard to make it happen since the entries came in in March. For the whole team it’s a huge part of the year, and financially it is as well.” 

Being tasked with selling such valuable bloodstock undoubtedly has its stresses and strains, but Powell says the team are relishing the challenge. 

“Of course there’s pressure but it’s good pressure, so it’s also a pleasure,” he says. “We’re selling really nice horses so it’s the start of an enjoyable process. When you take a horse like Look De Vega, who won the French Derby, it all starts here at the sales, so we need to enjoy it. The pressure is there but it’s definitely good pressure.”

The three-day Arqana August Sale begins on Friday at 2pm local time (1pm BST). Post-racing sessions on Saturday and Sunday start at 5.30pm local time. 

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