Numbers game drove success of French breds at Cheltenham Festival

A look back at the Cheltenham Festival results over the past 12 years perhaps gives some indication as to why French breds won a record 14 races, including seven Grade 1 events, and British breds emerged empty-handed.

Put simply, French breds were better represented at the meeting than ever before, while British breds put up a fair show despite the lowest tally of runners at the meeting since 2008.

Of the 498 runners over the four days, a total of 167 carried the FR suffix, a figure significantly higher than the 89 runners foaled in France who went to post in 2012, and substantially higher than the average of 122 French-bred runners who line up each year.

With 14 finding their way back to winner's enclosure, an intriguing stat is that the French-bred winners-to-runners strike-rate of eight per cent was matched in 2010 and 2011, when the likes of Big Buck's, Kauto Star and Master Minded shone brightest.

Even in 2012 when only 89 crossed the Channel, six winners carried the FR suffix - among them Quevega, whose fourth win in the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle came that year. Sprinter Sacre also produced the goods in the Racing Post Arkle and Big Buck's signed off with a fourth Stayers' Hurdle victory, while Sir Des Champs was successful in the JLT Novices' Chase.

So all in all another good meeting for French breds, though we are seeing more of them at the festival than ever before.

Redeeming factor

British breeders would appear to be licking their wounds after four days when not one winner carried the GB suffix, though perhaps they are being a little harsh on themselves.

Racing being racing, there is always an element of luck involved - perhaps if the same occurs next year then home breeders will really have to sit up and take notice.

Of the five runners-up bred in Britain, Wicklow Brave was unlucky to be collared on the line by William Henry in the Coral Cup and Tobefair ran his heart out to get within a neck of Sire Du Berlais in the Pertemps Final. Santini also gave Topofthegame a good run for his money in the RSA Novices' Chase, going down by half a length.

Arguably what made it hardest for British-bred runners at the meeting, though, is that just 68 went under starter's orders - the country's lowest number of runners since 2008 and down 39 per cent on the 112 runners in 2012, when eight winners carried the GB suffix.

Foal numbers in Britain have fallen below the 5,000-mark every year since 2010 following the recession, so it may be that the years of British breds winning four, five and six races at the festival will not return any time soon.

Irish angle

As for Irish-bred runners over the four days, it was a case of 'nothing much to see here' as the haul of 14 winners was in line with the average of 15 winners to carry the IRE suffix each year since 2008. What is more, the country's tally of 250 runners was just three more than average over the same period.

Hopes will be high among Irish breeders that they can go close to matching the remarkable tally of 20 winners set in 2013 in years to come.

Other winners since 2008 have hailed from the US, with the Kentucky-bred Causes Of Causes a three-time winner who followed Domesday Book into the winners' enclosure in 2017, and Germany, where Amicelli, Noble Prince, Bellvano, Arctic Fire and the 2016 Gold Cup hero Don Cossack were all foaled.

For each nation it appears that the more arrows, the better the chance of hitting the target.

More Cheltenham Festival stories:

Boum! Bright young sire brother of Big Buck's supplies Gold Cup winner

Popular success for Paisley Park breeders Michael and Micheál Conaghan

Whirlwind result for Patrick Turley at the Festival Sale