Is Baaeed's rating fair or flattering? And why it matters in bloodstock circles

Cards on the table, I’m not a handicapper. I bet regularly and keep a notebook of horses to follow (bet on in future) but do not maintain private ratings or suchlike.

However, does one need to be a handicapper to find it exceedingly odd that Baaeed can be officially rated 125 after beating Real World by three and a quarter lengths in the Lockinge and 128 in the wake of defeating the same horse by a length and three-quarters in the Queen Anne?

I just don’t get it. Real World was a consistently 118-rated horse who in his first two tries at the top level this year finished 11th of 14, beaten 19 and a half lengths, in the Saudi Cup and then ninth of ten, beaten 21 lengths, in the Dubai World Cup.

He has since twice finished second to Baaeed, getting much closer at Royal Ascot than he had at Newbury. He’s a better horse on turf than dirt, admittedly. He figured on a mark of 122 in the most recent Longines world rankings, while he is 123 on the BHA database.

Pure ratings aside, it was not as if Baaeed blew onlookers away in the Queen Anne. Sometimes you can win by a fairly small margin without the jockey moving a muscle, but this was not one of those occasions. Underwhelming was the overriding sentiment.

Just branching off into Racing Post Ratings for a moment, Baaeed was initially given 129 for the Queen Anne victory, so 1lb below the 130 we gave him at Newbury, but on further reflection that was raised to 130 by the time Royal Ascot finished. Now, after fourth-placed Chindit’s victory on the bob of a head over Mutasaabeq in the Group 2 Summer Mile, Baaeed has been nudged up again to 131.

Meanwhile, and getting to the nub of this – the question of whether there is a European and/or turf bias at play in world rankings – Nature Strip went into Royal Ascot on a mark of 124 and came out of it on ‘just’ 126 despite a rip-roaring impressive four-and-a-half-length victory in the King’s Stand. Just how far did he need to have won that five-furlong dash by to earn the highest mark at the meeting?

Nature Strip: along with Inspiral was the most impressive winner of Royal Ascot 2022Credit: Edward Whitaker

And over in the United States, Flightline smashed the 123-rated Speaker’s Corner by eight and three-quarter lengths in the Met Mile despite blowing the start, and yet is also on just 126. Life Is Good was, like Nature Strip, on 124 before the latest set of world rankings came out, and stays on that mark despite beating Speaker’s Corner by five lengths at Belmont Park.

A coincidental and unprompted communication with a US colleague included her commenting: "While I fully respect Baaeed, it is rather amazing that he has only ever run at one mile, no other distances in his eight starts, and his fastest time at that distance is more than two seconds slower than Flightline's first effort at a mile, in which he broke tardily, was hampered twice and eased in the late going."

On the surface, it’s baffling. Another colleague who has the ear of connections in the Far East maintains there is a deep-rooted feeling that horses in Japan and Hong Kong are rated less than they should be relative to Europeans – for example, Almond Eye’s 124 against Ghaiyyath’s 130 in 2020 – while even in Europe there was some incredulity that Cracksman was assessed as the equal of Winx on 130 in 2018.

All very well you might say, but what has this got to do with bloodstock? Well, everything really. Statistics are at the heart of stallion marketing the world over. Numbers of winners, percentage of stakes horses, Group scorers, winners to runners, earnings, etc. All of these are what they are. Yes, they can be somewhat manipulated, if that’s not too strong a word, but they are not subjective, like ratings.

Statistics are also tremendously important to sales houses too, and associations that dish out awards.

World rankings, therefore, really do need to be beyond reproach. We need total confidence in them. With a relentless diet of racing, handicappers have a tough job to keep on top of the game, and their integrity is certainly not in doubt. If it was, Frankel would have been given the gift of another pound or two to elevate him to the equal of, or even superior to, Dancing Brave (instead of 1lb below, officially).

However, to see Baaeed’s post-Queen Anne mark, either in isolation or relative to the likes of Flightline, as unquestionable would be totally wrong. It smacks of being questionable, and only a really insular British perspective would wave him blindly through as ‘the world’s best’.

There’s nothing not to like about him, by the way. He’s by Sea The Stars, he travels easily and quickens up brilliantly, just like his sire, and he can beat only what’s put in front of him. It’s also great to see Shadwell’s blue and white silks carried by such a distinguished colt.

It’s just that rating . . .

Longines World’s Best Racehorse Rankings (Jan 1-Jul 10, 3yo+)

RankHorseRatingTrained

1 Baaeed128GB

2 Flightline126USA

Nature Strip126AUS

4Life Is Good124USA

Titleholder124JPN

6Desert Crown123GB

Jack Christopher123USA

Speaker’s Corner123USA

Vadeni123FR

RP Bloodstock is interested in what you think. We’re keen to hear from all sides, those who agree with Baaeed’s mark and relative merits against the cream of Australia, the US and Japan, and those who have their doubts. Opinions from official handicappers and overseas readers are particularly welcome. You can email us at bloodstock@racingpost.com or message us on social media

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