Could Caldwell Potter make seven-figure sales history? Agents have their say

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Here, James Thomas takes the temperature ahead of the Andy and Gemma Brown Dispersal Sale at Tattersalls Ireland. Subscribers can get more great insight every Monday to Friday.

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We could be about to witness the first National Hunt horse to fetch €1,000,000 (or more) at public auction. 

Up until very recently this might have seemed highly unlikely, but then Andy and Gemma Brown shocked the racing world by announcing they were selling all 29 horses under their ownership.  

This means that shortly after 3pm today, Caldwell Potter will come under the hammer at Tattersalls Ireland. It is safe to say the eyes of the jumping world will be watching.  

Placing a figure on such a unique prospect is not an exact science, but he certainly possesses all the requisite attributes to make a small fortune. Indeed, given his credentials it would be more surprising if he didn’t become the most expensive jumps horse sold on the public market. Pedigree? Check. Grade 1 form? Check. Potential? Check. Physique? By all accounts that’s a check too. 

While a horse with his profile rates a truly unprecedented offering, there is the old adage to consider: price is what you pay, value’s what you get. 

“I think he’ll be the cheapest horse bought at public auction in decades,” says bloodstock agent Tom Malone. “He’s a proven Grade 1 winner, he’s only had seven runs and he’s got better on each start over hurdles. You just don’t get this sort of horse on the market. Ever. That’s why, to me, he’s going to end up being the cheapest horse bought. 

“If someone turned around to me and said, ‘Here’s a million quid, buy me a Grade 1 horse’, normally you’d have a right good go but you couldn’t guarantee it. Whereas I can guarantee by spending probably between €600,000 and €800,000 on Caldwell Potter, you’re getting a proven top-class horse. 

“You could spend a lifetime trying to find this horse and now he’s being sold. It’s not out of the question [he could make €1 million or more] but it would take two very strong characters to get to that level because it’s a big jump.”

The most expensive jumps horse sold at public auction is Interconnected, who was bought by Darren Yates and Phil Kirby for £620,000 at Doncaster in 2019. Prior to Interconnected, the title belonged to Garde Champetre, who cost 530,000gns – £556,500 – 15 years earlier.

In the race to seven figures, Caldwell Potter has something of an advantage as he will sell in euros, as opposed to sterling like the previous record holders. At current exchange rates, €1m equates to around £855,000. 

One of the agents I approached for this piece anticipated being active at the sale today, so gave his answers under condition of anonymity. 

When asked if he believed Caldwell Potter could head into seven-figure territory, he said: “I’d be surprised if he made that but I don’t think it’s ludicrous. Perhaps if he’d won at the Cheltenham Festival he could go and make that. If a Constitution Hill or a horse of that ilk came to the sales ring then I think he’d make well into seven figures, but Caldwell Potter, who knows. 

“If he’d run and won at the Dublin Racing Festival then he might have enhanced his claims of making a seven-figure price, but at the moment I think it’s more likely he’ll make between €500,000 and €700,000.”

Another agent, JD Moore, took a slightly more positive view, saying: “If you look at what those top Grade 1 horses achieve over their careers, if they remain sound a lot of them win between £750,000 and £800,000 in prize-money. Is it unreasonable to think he could make €1 million? I don’t think so. 

JD Moore: 'Is it unreasonable to think he could make €1 million? I don’t think so'Credit: Laura Green

“Caldwell Potter has a lovely profile going forward and of the novice division he looks like the one with Gold Cup potential. He’s typical of the horses Joey Logan [the Browns’ racing and bloodstock manager] bought as they’re all very good physicals and they were all well turned out by Gordon and his team when I went to see them.”

There is at least one similarity between Caldwell Potter and Interconnected as the latter was also offered as part of a surprise dispersal, in his case that of owners Mike Grech and Stuart Parkin. It is well established that genuine and transparent reasons for sale tend to result in greater market confidence. 

However, when Interconnected sold he had won only a Larkhill point-to-point and finished second on his hurdling debut. On this front Caldwell Potter is in a different league as he was last seen running out a six-and-a-half length winner of the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle, with the front two a mile clear of the rest. 

The form of that effort was done no harm on Saturday when runner-up Predators Gold ran a valiant second in the Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle. Caldwell Potter’s seven races have also included impressive victories in a Punchestown bumper and a Navan maiden hurdle. He is as short as 10-1 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

Caldwell Potter’s immense potential is underpinned by his pedigree, which is, quite literally, the best in the book. 

The strapping grey son of Martaline is out of the National Hunt blue hen Matnie, making him a sibling to four other black-type winners. They are: the star-crossed Mighty Potter, a full-brother who won four Grades 1s, including two over fences; French Dynamite, whose six rules victories include a Grade 3 novice chase; Indiana Jones, who also won a Grade 3 over fences; and Brighterdaysahead, who is four from four, including the Grade 3 Feathard Lady Mares Novice Hurdle on her last start.  

“That’s the best pedigree in National Hunt history that I can remember,” says Malone. “In the 20 or so years I’ve been around it I’ve never seen a better pedigree. A dam that can produce four top-class animals, and who’s to say that Brighterdaysahead wouldn’t be the best of them? It’s unheard of that one dam would produce that many successful black-type horses. If I had an owner who wanted to get in at the top, there’s only one horse I’d be saying we’re buying and that’s Caldwell Potter.” 

Our anonymous expert agreed, saying: “When point-to-pointers are making £400,000-plus it makes sense that he deserves to make more. He’s a genuine Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown prospect and he could make up into a proper Grade 1 chaser one day because he’s certainly bred to. He’ll top the sale anyway, or I certainly expect him to.”

While Caldwell Potter’s credentials look cast-iron, more of an imponderable is who is actually going to bid on the day. His trainer Gordon Elliott has made no secret of his desire to keep the upwardly mobile six-year-old in his yard, and, although he is now down one big investor, several other likely candidates already have horses based at Cullentra House. 

Perhaps Caldwell Potter’s pedigree could point the way, as French Dynamite and Indiana Jones both carry the colours of Brian Acheson’s Robcour outfit, which owns Elliott-trained talents like Gerri Colombe, Irish Point and Teahupoo. Moreover, Acheson has shown he isn’t afraid to spend big, having paid €500,000 through Mags O’Toole for last year’s Goffs Punchestown Sale top lot Qualimita.

Brighterdaysahead, meanwhile, is owned by Michael O’Leary’s Gigginstown House Stud, who paid €310,000 for the daughter of Kapgarde when she topped the 2022 Derby Sale. Gigginstown have gone even further subsequently, including when paying £420,000 for the unbeaten Jalon D'Oudairies at the Cheltenham Festival Sale in 2023. 

Gordon Elliott: will be hoping a fair few of the horses being dispersed return to Cullentra HouseCredit: Patrick McCann

Elliott has also secured big-money acquisitions for the likes of KTDA Racing, owners of the £420,000 Romeo Coolio, and Noel and Valerie Moran of Bective Stud. The latter raced the ill-fated Ginto, a €470,000 purchase, and also gave €530,000 for Apple's Jade, albeit the 11-time Grade 1 winner had much greater residual value as a broodmare prospect. 

Another owner whose track record makes him a candidate for this kind of prospect is JP McManus. The leading owner was the man whose colours Garde Champetre carried after his 530,000gns sale all those years ago, while he also spent a record £570,000 to secure Jonbon in November 2020. Elliott has saddled 25 winners for McManus in the last five seasons. 

The price Jonbon fetched was equalled just a month later when Malone landed Classic Getaway on behalf of Cheveley Park Stud. The Thompson family appear to have reined in their National Hunt investments, with the £360,000 Mahon's Way and the £220,000 Tullyhill the last jumps horses they appear to have bought publicly back in November 2022. 

There are, of course, any number of more leftfield options. I for one wouldn’t be surprised to see Anthony Barney, who races under the Countrywide Park Homes banner, make an impact. He has recently tasted Grade 1 success with Tolworth Hurdle winner Jango Baie, who was sourced by Jerry McGrath for £170,000, and he saw Jingko Blue land a decent prize at Sandown on Saturday. Barney also caused a major stir when filling the role of record-breaking underbidder on both Jonbon and Classic Getaway. 

Should the likes of Cheveley Park and Barney throw their hat into the ring (not literally) it would provide a fascinating subplot, as plenty have commented on the fact this dispersal presents British owners and trainers with a chance to redress the startling imbalance that has emerged between the powerhouses on opposing sides of the Irish Sea. 

For what it's worth I expect Caldwell Potter to fetch around €800,000, although the identity of the buyer remains anyone's guess. The reality is there are enough individuals out there with the kind of wealth required to afford a horse like Caldwell Potter, should they so choose. And of course any new owner who wants to take a shortcut to the top will seldom find a better opportunity. Who knows what surprises may be in store, but it promises to be one for the ages whatever happens. 

“Every man alive will be there but realistically there’ll be only five or six people bidding on Caldwell Potter,” said Malone. “ The place will be full to the rafters with tyre kickers, and I don’t mean that in a bad way because it’ll be people who are interested in seeing the theatre of it all.” 

Caldwell Potter is far from the only appealing prospect among the dispersal, with up-and-comers like Doctor Elvis, Imagine, Jasette D'Irlande, Mighty Bandit, Mollys Mango, Sa Fureur and Staffordshire Knot all having more to offer. Potentially much more in some cases. 

And then there is Chemical Energy, Fil Dor, Jazzy Matty and Pied Piper, each of whom are already proven at a high level while still being young enough to think that their best days could yet be ahead of them. Unsurprisingly, interest is said to be sky high, including from as far afield as Australia. 

The British angle was noted by two of our experts, although Malone felt it would be against the run of recent form if some of the more choice offerings were to leave Ireland. 

Tom Malone: looking forward to a full house in FairyhouseCredit: Debbie Burt

“There are other beautiful horses being sold and it’s a lovely catalogue,” he said. “I think the British might have a chance so they could step up to the plate and buy some of them. It just depends whether they’ll be able to. There’ll be fierce competition but, at the moment, when the Irish want one the British seem to get beaten more often than not. 

“I don’t see why that would be different on Monday. Gordon has already said that he’s not going to lie down and let these horses be taken easily. They’re going to take it to a level where the British aren’t comfortable spending, so there could be a lot of British owners and trainers underbidding these horses.” 

Our anonymous source also expects British buyers to have their part to play, as he added: “It sounds like there’s a lot of interest, particularly from Britain. I think people generally are finding these Irish point-to-pointers very hard to source and even more difficult to afford. If you’re trying to buy yourself a genuine Saturday horse then this sale is a good place to try and find one. 

“Gordon is a very, very good trainer and it would be hard to improve one off him. But, equally, you can’t buy 140- to 150-rated horses that still have a future ahead of them every day of the week.” 

Moore not only acknowledged the potential on offer in the catalogue, but also said he was anticipating an almighty spectacle.  

“There are five or six proper Cheltenham Festival candidates in there all with a serious chance of winning,” he said. “There are a couple who could go on to be Grand National prospects later in their careers too. It’ll be an exciting sale for viewing and it’ll be a great piece of theatre.” 

It will be fascinating to see who pitches up and puts their hand in their pocket. One thing is for sure, you won’t want to miss it.

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“I’d long suspected I was more Bullet Train than Frankel, and this just about confirmed it.” – more musings from the bloodstock reporting beat in my latest sales diary.

Pedigree pick

There’s plenty of low-grade fare on Monday and, with few unexposed runners, form looks likely to hold sway over pedigree. However, one well-related type that caught my eye is Hombre in the penultimate contest at Southwell (8.00). 

Bred by Michael Phelan of Pipe View Stud, the Joseph Parr-trained gelding is from the first crop of Whitsbury Manor Stud’s sire sensation Havana Grey. He is the seventh foal out of Darsan, a winning daughter of Iffraaj who has bred three successful runners. 

The best of those is Method, a dual winner by Mehmas whose finest hour came when landing the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes at Newbury. Speed was very much his forte as he also reached the podium in the Cornwallis Stakes and the Coral Charge. 

While Hombre may have taken after Method, there is a mix of speed and stamina in the pedigree. Darsan herself won over a mile three and a half furlongs and her son For Pleasure scored over 12 furlongs on the Flat and at around two miles over hurdles, including when landing the Grade 2 Sharp Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham. 

Hombre fetched €135,000 when bought by Shadwell as a foal, but things evidently didn’t go as intended as he was resold unraced nearly three years later for just 5,000gns. Clearly an official mark of just 65 wasn’t the plan when he changed hands for a six-figure sum, but after an encouraging debut and tackling the easiest company he has faced yet, hopefully he can belatedly show himself to be one tough Hombre.

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