Five potential big stories for the breeding industry in 2023

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Here he looks ahead to what 2023 could have in store for the bloodstock industry. Subscribers can get more great insight from Martin every Monday to Friday.

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Safe to say that 2022 was the year of Havana Grey-mania, the rise and rise of New Bay, further confirmation that No Nay Never is the best two-year-old sire in town and the ongoing outstanding achievement of Kirsten Rausing as a breeder.

But what might the next 12 months in breeding bring? Good Morning Bloodstock investigates...

Shamardal’s swansong

It was during the Covid-19 lockdown in 2020 that Shamardal succumbed to the longstanding health issues that meant he could cover only restricted books at Kildangan Stud later in life, and so the last crop by Darley’s stalwart sire are now two-year-olds.

There are only 17 of those juveniles, but they all have crackerjack pedigrees – which is hardly surprising, when you consider that they were conceived in the wake of him supplying three individual Group 1-winning two-year-olds (Pinatubo, Earthlight and Victor Ludorum) and dual Royal Ascot scorer Blue Point in 2019.

Juddmonte have got in early by naming their pair of Shamardal two-year-olds. Indelible is a filly out of the multiple Group 1-winning mare Midday, while Shader is a colt out of Musidora Stakes winner and Enable’s one-time conqueror Shutter Speed.

Shamardal: final crop of the late, great Darley sire hit the track this yearCredit: Darley

Charlie Appleby is listed by Weatherbys as having eight unnamed Shamardal juveniles in his care at present: a full-sister to Victor Ludorum, a half-sister to Naval Crown, fillies out of Dancing Rain, Measured Tempo and the well-related winner Espadrille, and colts out of Zhukova and Cross Counter’s winning half-sister Right Direction.

Another in Moulton Paddocks is the only Shamardal yearling to be offered at auction last year, the colt out of Lope De Vega’s Group 3-winning Frankel half-sister Lady Frankel who was bought by Godolphin for €1.8 million at Arqana in August.

A colt out of Prix Jean Romanet heroine Ajman Princess and fillies out of Group 3 winners Kilmah and Muffri’Ha are among the other few final Shamardals to look forward to.

Foremost first-borns

From the bittersweet nature of Shamardal’s stallion career gradually coming to an end, we go to the brighter prospect of welcoming the first foals of some great racemares to the track.

In particular, I hope we get to see the debut produce of top-notch milers Alpha Centauri (a three-year-old Galileo colt named Saturn and in training with his dam’s former handler Jessica Harrington) and Laurens (a two-year-old colt by Invincible Spirit).

Among the first foals of Classic winners who could potentially race at two this year are the No Nay Never colt out of Hermosa and the Lope De Vega filly out of Anapurna, while it would be no surprise to see Forever Together’s three-year-old Dubawi colt named Safeguard turned out by Aidan O’Brien in one of those informative early-season maidens in Ireland.

Others to look out for in 2023 are the debut two-year-old progeny of accomplished sprinters Mabs Cross (an unnamed Zoustar filly), Polydream (a Frankel colt named Polyspeed) and Soffia (a Frankel filly named Quadruple).

Coronet: dual Group 1-winning mare's first foal by Frankel starts out on his careerCredit: Patrick McCann

Meanwhile, I can’t believe there will be a better named horse this year than the Frankel two-year-old colt who is the first foal out of Coronet. Not only does Lanfranco combine elements of both his sire’s and dam’s names, but his jockey namesake rode Coronet to victory in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and Prix Jean Romanet.

Wouldn’t it be something if Lanfranco Dettori rode Lanfranco the horse to victory in his last season before bowing out of the weighing room?

Last chance to buy

Back to a more poignant subject, as after at least 15 years of Galileo yearlings hitting the headlines at the sales each autumn, it will be the last time that his progeny of that age go under the hammer in 2023.

Coolmore’s epoch-making sire, responsible for three of the four most expensive yearlings ever sold in Europe, was the father of just 12 offspring born in 2022, conceived before he had to be put down due to a chronic foot injury in the preceding summer.

That 20th and final crop includes a colt out of the Bahamian Bounty mare Bounce and a filly out of the Invincible Spirit mare Gold Lace who have already changed hands as foals, making 400,000gns and €290,000 respectively.

Other highlights include colts out of the Australian Group 1 winner Amicus, 1,000 Guineas fourth Manderley and Prix du Moulin runner-up Wind Chimes, as well as a full-sister to dual Group 2 scorer Battle Of Marengo.

Wind Chimes, pictured with her Galileo filly, has a Galileo yearling coltCredit: Coolmore Stud

I noted in this space last autumn that the penultimate Galileo yearlings weren’t filling sales arenas with spectators and making the huge prices that they used to, with the market apparently having become more infatuated with Dubawi and Frankel.

But I suspect that with buyers realising that this really is the last chance to buy a racehorse by one of the best sires in history, and with so few of those yearlings likely to appear at auction, the novelty value might just mean he goes out with a bang.

Freshman thriller

With Sioux Nation and Havana Grey being precocious sprinters and in possession of by far the biggest crops among last year’s first-season sires, it was always on the cards that they would dominate the freshman tables – and so it proved.

It promises to be a more open and interesting contest this year, though, with those stallions that retired in 2020 a relatively evenly-matched bunch.

Inns Of Court leads the way with 169 two-year-olds, but he isn’t that far in front of Blue Point (164) or Ten Sovereigns (149), and there isn’t a huge gap back to the likes of Too Darn Hot (129), Soldier’s Call (121), Land Force (116), Magna Grecia (113), Masar (105), Calyx (104), Advertise (103), Phoenix Of Spain (98) or Invincible Army (92).

It’s not all about volume of winners, either, and among those more middle-distance bred sires who I can’t wait to see put some exciting maiden and novice stakes winners on the board from the late summer onwards are Study Of Man and Waldgeist.

Study Of Man, a Prix du Jockey Club hero by Deep Impact and from the family of Miesque, has 55 two-year-olds to go to war with, while Waldgeist, an Arc winner by Galileo from a prolific German dynasty, has 82.

Thunder to rumble

Night Of Thunder stole the limelight among the first-season sires in Europe in 2019, by supplying 28 winners from 48 runners for an exceptional strike-rate of 58 per cent and matching Fasliyev’s long-held record of seven stakes scorers in a freshman season.

The 2,000 Guineas-winning son of Dubawi was, unsurprisingly, extremely popular in the following year’s covering season. He returned from Dalham Hall Stud to Kildangan Stud, where those juveniles had been conceived, and covered 238 mares – including 92 black-type performers – at an increased fee of €25,000.

Night Of Thunder's biggest and best-bred crops are ahead of himCredit: Darley

Night Of Thunder thus has a crop of 164 blueblooded two-year-olds who could run for him this year, including half-brothers to Group 1-winning pairs of siblings Baaeed and Hukum and Best Solution and El Bodegon, and half-sisters to Dramatised, Halfway To Heaven, La Pelosa, Nezwaah, No Speak Alexander and Scope.

Naturally, his yearling prices soared last year, to an average of 198,000gns and median of 160,000gns, with highs of 800,000gns, paid by Stonestreet and Coolmore for a half-sister to stakes winners Ross Castle, Snazzy Jazzy and Ten Year Ticket, and 650,000gns, paid by Solis/Litt and Ecurie des Monceaux for a half-sister to Rizeena, at Tattersalls October Book 1.

We have every right to expect a bold show from Night Of Thunder with his two-year-olds this Flat season, then. That said, as ever when a young sire’s book is significantly upgraded like this, it would be wise to remember that his stock will be out of more classically-bred mares and might not be as quick out of the blocks.

What do you think?

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Must-read story

“He went to Ireland in year three and covered only 70 mares in year four, so we were concerned about his popularity, but when they hit the track and started running we knew we had something a bit special,” says Darley’s director of stallions Sam Bullard as he reflects on Dubawi’s career after the Dalham Hall Stud stalwart secured a deserved first British and Irish sire championship.

Pedigree pick

The seven-furlong three-year-old maiden at Dundalk on Friday (6.30) features the debut of no less than a sibling to a Breeders’ Cup winner by glamour sire No Nay Never.

Zero Mostel, trained by Ger Lyons for owner-breeder Peter Brant, is a half-brother to Uni, who took the notable scalps of Got Stormy, Without Parole and Circus Maximus when she landed the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Santa Anita in 2019.

That was one of four Grade 1 victories for the daughter of More Than Ready, along with the Matriarch Stakes and back-to-back renewals of the First Lady Stakes.

Zero Mostel was in-utero when his dam Unaided, a Dansili half-sister to stakes winners Whazzat and Whazzis from the family of Invincible Spirit, when she was bought by Oceanic Bloodstock on behalf of Brant for €1.25 million at the Arqana December Breeding-Stock Sale in 2019.

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Good Morning Bloodstock is our latest email newsletter. Martin Stevens, a doyen among bloodstock journalists, provides his take and insight on the biggest stories every morning from Monday to Friday